More Election News

• CT: As Race Tightens, Wrestling Becomes a Campaign Issue
• NH-2: Bass Tries to Convince Voters He's Serious About Tackling Deficit
• TX: Race Goes National as Parties Eye Long-Term Gains
• OH: White Men Could Be Election's Wild Card
• MI-1: Race for Stupak Seat Gets Nasty
• AK: The Incumbent Emerges as the Dark Horse
• GA: Barnes' Legal Record Scrutinized
• TX-17: Flores Banks on Outsider Status in Race Against Edwards
• IL: National Democrats Still Spending for Giannoulias
• CO: Determined Tancredo Continues Race as Maes Fades
• WI: Feingold Faces Skeptical Voters
• Dems Face Tough Calls on Ad Spending
• HI: GOP Ad Campaign Backs Aiona

SENATE

Kentucky – See Kyle’s writeup here.  This race could be starting to slip away from Paul.

Nevada – Two different pollsters give slightly different assessments of the Nevada Senate race.  Mason-Dixon, polling for the Las Vegas Review Journal, finds a tie at 43 percent apiece for Democrat Harry Reid and Republican Sharron Angle.  This represents the first time that Mason-Dixon hasn’t found Angle trailing since she won her primary.  Angle is winning independents by 20 points, which is going to make it very difficult for Reid to win – after throwing eight figures worth of advertising at Angle, what can he do to put her away?

In an odd turnabout, Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, which was in the field at the same time as Mason Dixon, finds a five-point Reid lead.  The poll probably undersamples independents (18 percent, versus 32 percent in 2008), but without crosstabs, it is hard to evaluate the impact this has on the poll’s outcome, if any.  Reid leads by a point in the RCP Average.

California – Venerable California polling institutions Field and LA Times/USC weigh in on the Senate race and find what other pollsters have found:  Carly Fiorna is fading in California.  But the phrasing of that isn’t accidental:  Boxer is only about two points higher in the RCP Average than she was when Fiorina was nipping at her heels.   Fiorina, by contrast, has dropped over four points since Boxer began her ad barrage.

Fiorina is on the airwaves now, and hopes to close the gap.  If there’s going to be a turnaround, it had best be quick.  Boxer leads by six points in the RCP Average.

Florida – The Florida Senate race is starting to really get away from independent Charlie Crist, as Marco Rubio has jumped out to a 12-point lead, according to Mason-Dixon.  This is up from a five-point lead in mid-August.  Rubio has only gained a couple of points, but Crist is shedding voters to Democrat Kendrick Meek.  This is the problem Crist has faced all along.  Anything he does to placate Republican voters is going to move Democrats toward Meek, and vice-versa.  Rubio leads by 10.6 points in the RCP Average.

Ohio – The University of Cincinnati Ohio poll shows what other pollsters are showing:  Rob Portman running away with the Senate race.  He leads Democrat Lee Fisher 55 percent to 40 percent in the race to replace retiring Republican Senator George Voinovich.  Fisher hasn’t been above 43 percent all cycle, and Portman now leads by 13.6 points in the RCP Average.

North Carolina – The conservative Civitas Institute polled the North Carolina Senate race, and found numbers that ape the spread from the recent SurveyUSA poll:  Republican Senator Richard Burr is up 49 percent to 29 percent over Democrat Elaine Marshall.  The poll finds Burr leading Marshall in all areas of the state and in all major media markets. He also leads among independents and all age groups.

There was a time when this was really looking like a close race, but Burr’s advertising campaign seems to be in full swing now.  He leads by 16 points in the RCP Average.

Leftovers

North Dakota, Rasmussen Reports, Hoeven (R) 68 percent, Potter (D) 25 percent.

Alabama, Rasmussen Reports, Shelby 58 percent, Barnes 30 percent.

Georgia, Rasmussen Reports, Isakson 52 percent, Thurmond 36 percent.

GOVERNOR

Florida – Rasmussen Reports sees this race a bit differently than other pollsters.  It finds a six-point lead for Republican Rick Scott over Democrat Alex Sink, 50 percent to 44 percent.  The main difference between this poll and the contemporaneous Mason-Dixon poll showing Sink with a seven-point lead is that Mason Dixon has Scott at 40 percent, while Rasmussen has Scott at 50 percent.  I suspect Sink is at 46/47 percent, and undecideds are leaning toward Scott.  We’ll see.  Scott trails by 1.6 points in the RCP Average.

Minnesota – Republican Tom Emmer is closing the gap with Democrat Mark Dayton, according to Rasmussen Reports.  He leads 42 percent to 41 percent, with 9 percent for independent candidate Tom Horney.  The Star Tribune, by contrast, sees a 39/30/18 split.  Everyone except the Star Trib poll is showing a pretty substantial tightening of the race, and I suspect the race has tightened since Dayton’s narrow primary win.  Dayton leads by 2.5 points in the RCP Average.

Texas – A pair of polls shows a close-ish race in the Lone Star State.  Rasmussen Reports shows Republican Governor Rick Perry leading Democrat Bill White 48 percent to 42 percent, while the Dallas Morning News shows a 46/39 Perry lead.

Color me a bit skeptical.  It seems like every cycle we see polls showing the race close – Perry in 2002, Cornyn 2002, Cornyn 2008, before the Republican ends up winning big.   Perry leads by 5.8 points in the RCP Average.

California – The Field and LATimes/USC polls mentioned above likewise have conflicting information for the Jerry Brown/Meg Whitman race.  The LATimes poll shows Whitman trailing Brown 49 to 44 percent, while Field shows a 41-41 tie.  It may well be that undecideds are leaning Democratic this cycle in California, which wouldn’t be surprising given the partisan composition of the state.  Brown leads by two points in the RCP Average.

Ohio – While the Ohio Poll saw a big lead for Republican Senate candidate Rob Portman, they show the governor's race between Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland and Republican John Kasich to be much tighter.  The pollster found that Kasich leads Strickland 49 percent to 45 percent.  But that’s actually an improvement for Kasich from the polls’ last iteration in May, when it found Strickland leading by five.  Kasich leads by 9.2 points in the RCP Average.

Leftovers

Iowa – Des Moines Register, Culver (D) 33 percent, Branstad (R) 52 percent.

Oklahoma, Rasmussen Reports, Fallin (R) 60 percent, Askins (D) 34 percent.

South Carolina, Rasmussen Reports, Haley (R) 50 percent, Sheheen (D) 33 percent

HOUSE

Campaign Polls – It is truly odd how many campaigns are releasing polls showing their candidates behind this cycle.

MI-01, Greenberg Quinlan (D), Benishek (R), 41 percent, McDowell (D), 38 percent, Wilson (I), 12 percent.

AZ-01, Lake (D), Kirkpatrick (D), 43 percent, Gosar (R), 39 percent