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ShareWhat the Latest Polls Told Us: Patrick Murphy in Trouble in PA-8
What the Latest Polls Told Us: Patrick Murphy in Trouble in PA-8
HOUSE
PA-08: This is a rough year for Democrats, and in no state is it likely to be rougher than Pennsylvania, where eight of their seats are in varying degrees of jeopardy. Remember, in 1994 the Republicans' best region wasn't the South. The real Democratic killing fields were found in the industrial Midwest and the Mountain West. We're seeing the same forces at work this year.
Pennsylvania's 8th District is Bucks County, a suburban strip of land wedged between Montgomery County and New Jersey. Democrat Patrick Murphy defeated moderate Republican Mike Fitzpatrick in the 2006 Democratic landslide, but Fitzpatrick is back for a rematch, now that the issue matrix has shifted from Iraq to lunch pail issues. Pennsylvania pollster Franklin & Marshall (or F&M, for those in the know), finds that he's likely to get his old job back. It finds Fitzpatrick leading Congressman Murphy by 14 points, 49 percent to 35 percent. Even taking into account the high error margin (+/- 5 percent), that's a terrible result for the congressman.
This is exactly the type of suburban district where Democrats have been making gains in the 1990s and 2000s, and it is not good for them that they are taking a massive step backwards here.
North Dakota: Rasmussen tells us what we've known for a while: Democrat Earl Pomeroy trails Republican Rick Berg, and is in a heap of trouble. Pomeroy has been on the air for months, and yet has been between 43 percent and 46 percent. This is looking more-and-more like a GOP pickup.
KY-03:A few weeks ago, SurveyUSA showed Democratic sophomore John Yarmuth narrowly holding on in this Louisville-based House district. CN2/Braun shows something completely different, with Yarmuth up 23 point over his Republican opponent, 53 percent to 30 percent. CN2/Braun's polls in KY have been a bit favorable to the Dems this cycle, but that doesn't come close to accounting for this spread; it looks like Yarmuth may be putting this one away.
MI-07: Democratic polling company Rossman Group polled the Second Battle of Battle Creek between former Congressman Tim Walberg and Democratic Congressman Mark Schauer, who defeated Walberg in 2008. Right now things are looking grim for Schauer. Rossman finds Walberg leading 42 percent to 38 percent. Three pollsters have been into the district in the last month or so; all three have found Schauer at or around 40 percent, while Walberg varies between 42 and 50. As a rule of them, when you see results like that, it typically means that undecideds are leaning toward the candidate with the greater variance. At any rate, the usual "undecided rule" that says undecideds break against an incumbent doesn't necessarily apply here, since both men have been incumbents in the past few years. But things still aren't looking great for Schauer, given the type of year and the Republican lean of the district.
Campaign Polls -- As usual, take with a grain of salt, but note that Chandler seems to be close to 50 percent, even in Republican polling. Flores' polling, on the other hand, is pretty astounding, even for a campaign poll. As always, incumbents are listed first.
KY-6 (Tarrance (R)) -- Chandler (D), 49 percent, Barr (R) 42 percent
TX-17(On Message (R)) -- Edwards (D), 36 percent, Flores (R), 55 percent.
SENATE
This is easier than I'd expected, since today's polls so far have been from a handful of races.
New York -- Obviously, the big news was from this morning, where SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac both found Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in trouble, with one- and six-point leads, respectively. Siena crashes this party, with a poll showing Gillibrand up by 26 points, tying her largest lead of the cycle, 57 percent to 31 percent.
There are some problems here. First, the Siena poll is of registered voters, which is increasingly hard to justify this late in the cycle. Second, we've seen some examples of Siena being more favorable to Democrats than other pollsters in the field. For example, in August it had Gillibrand at 54 percent while Quinnipiac, also polling registered voters at the time, had Gillibrand at 43 percent. Regardless, we should have some more polling in the next few days; if it shows a closer race, we might need to take a closer look at the surprisingly favorable results Siena was showing for Democrats in NY-20 and NY-24.
New York 2 -- Did you know there was another Senate race in New York this cycle? Democrat Charles Schumer looks to be in a substantially better position than Gillibrand; four pollsters (!!!) showed him with leads in excess of 15 points. Once again, Siena showed the best result for the senator, while Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA showed him actually in a little bit of trouble, coming in around 54 percent. Schumer nevertheless leads by 23 points in the RCP Average.
Washington -- See Scott's excellent writeup here. Murray's ad campaign seems to be taking a real toll on Republican Dino Rossi. This one is starting to slip away from him, but Murray hasn't quite put it away yet.
California -- The other West Coast state also seems to be moving away from Republicans, as SurveyUSA shows Democrat Barbara Boxer with a six-point lead over Carly Fiorina. This has been mostly a function of Fiorina slipping more than it has been Boxer improving; the senator is still under 50 percent. But in this heavily Democratic state, you have to think that she can win the 20 percent of the undecideds or so that she needs. She leads by 5.5 points in the RCP Average.
Missouri -- Robin Carnahan engaged in the ad wars with Roy Blunt . . . and not much happened. Blunt hasn't pulled away any more from her, but his 8-point lead in Rasmussen is only down a few points from earlier polling. This is a surprisingly underpolled race. Blunt leads by 5.5 points in the RCP Average.
GOVERNOR
California -- Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown, Jr.'s political comeback seems to be in full gear. Meg Whitman has lost four points off of her lead in the past few weeks; Brown now leads in the RCP Average by 1.4 points. In the past few days Rasmussen Reports has seen a one-point Brown lead, the venerable Field Poll has seen a tie, and SurveyUSA sees a 3-point Brown lead. Ominously for Whitman, SUSA has swung 10 points against her since late August, and Rasmussen has swung nine against her. After spending $100 million, what more can she do here?
Florida -- See Kyle's excellent writeup here. Florida CFO Alex Sink continues to lead Republican Rick Scott, who has only led in one poll this month.
Georgia -- Democrats are still talking this race up, and Republican Nathan Deal has endured terrible publicity over his personal finances. But he still leads by six in Rasmussen Reports, and Barnes is still a former governor who has yet to break 44 percent in any poll. My suspicion is that Deal will win this comfortably, but that is by no means a sure thing. Deal leads by 5.3 points in the RCP Average.
New York Governor -- Carl Paladino is mad as hell, and he isn't going to take it any more! And it seems to be working -- somewhat. Andrew Cuomo's lead has collapsed in most polls, and two of the four most recent polls show Paladino keeping him below 50 percent. Of course the "X"-factor is Rick Lazio, who has the Conservative Party line. If Lazio continues to run, this is really tough for Paladino. If he doesn't? Well, it is still tough for Paladino, but we can start to see a path for a Paladino victory. Once again, Siena, which included Lazio in their poll, finds no Republican bounce at all, with Cuomo at 57 percent. Cuomo leads by 16 points, 52.3 percent to 36.3 percent, in the RCP Average.
Leftovers -- None of these races have really changed that much since the last polling. That's somewhat notable for Maine, where LePage stormed out of a presser after shouting an expletive at a reporter. And yet his lead expanded a bit. It's that kind of year.:
Pennsylvania -- CNN/Time, Corbett (R) 52 percent, Onorato (D) 44 percent
Wisconsin -- CNN/Time, Walker (R) 53 percent, Barnett (D) 42 percent
Colorado -- CNN/Time, Hickenlooper (D) 47 percent, Maes (R) 21 percent, Tancredo (C) 29 percent
Arkansas -- Reuters/Ipsos, Beebe (D) 55 percent, Keet (R) 37 percent
Maine -- Rasmussen, LePage (R) 45 percent, Mitchell (D) 27 percent, Cutler (I) 14 percent
Alaska -- Rasmussen, Parnell (R) 54 percent, Berkowitz (D) 34 percent.
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