Polls Show Positive Movement for Jerry Brown

Polls Show Positive Movement for Jerry Brown

By Scott Conroy - September 22, 2010

A new Rasmussen Reports poll in the California gubernatorial race released on Wednesday showed Democratic Attorney General Jerry Brown with a thin 47 percent to 46 percent lead among likely voters over Republican Meg Whitman, the former eBay CEO.

Brown's showing in the poll is a slight improvement from Rasmussen's previous survey conducted earlier this month, which showed him trailing Whitman by three percent.

After falling behind Whitman in most polls conducted in August, Brown appears to have gained some momentum this month. He led Whitman by 5 percent in a Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday and now trails by less than 1 percent in the RCP Average.

Still, both campaigns agree that the race is likely to remain neck-and-neck leading up to Election Day, in spite of the approximately 2.3 million voter registration edge that Democrats enjoy in California.

The Whitman campaign noted their institutional disadvantage in the state, while also pointing out that three out of the last four California governors were Republicans.

"Californians generally elect a Republican as governor, and they like having balance between the governor and legislature," Whitman spokesperson Darrel Ng said.

Whitman has made a particularly aggressive effort to target Latinos, who compose more than a third of the state's population.

The Republican still trails Brown among Latino voters, but her time spent on the stump in Latino communities and the array of Spanish language radio and TV advertisements her campaign has aired have helped her remain competitive with voters in California's largest minority community.

With her latest $15 million contribution to her own campaign, Whitman has become the most extravagantly self-funded candidate in the nation's history, as she has now contributed a total of $119 million on her own behalf.

Early in her gubernatorial run, Whitman said that she was willing to spend $150 million of her own funds, and her campaign did not dispute that the $150 million ceiling was still in place.

The Brown campaign has tried to make an issue of Whitman's freewheeling spending.

"We expect her to keep plowing through the money as fast as it can possibly be spent," Brown spokesperson Sterling Clifford said. "There's a real disconnect between making claims about fiscal discipline and then being a candidate who has yet to see a dollar she wouldn't spend."

Whitman's spending has showed no signs of slowing down, as the Republican is hosting high-profile fundraisers this week with a trio of national Republican heavyweights: former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal.

Media reports have indicated that New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg -- the previous record-holder for a self-funded candidate -- will travel to California on Whitman's behalf, but according to the Whitman campaign, there are no confirmed dates for any Bloomberg appearances in the state.

Brown launched his first TV ad buy earlier this month but has benefited from outside groups' advertisements on his behalf for months.

The Democratic attorney general, who served as California's governor from 1975 to 1983, will receive some high-profile support next month when former President Bill Clinton is scheduled to make two appearances in the state on his behalf.

Clinton has been the recent source of back-and-forth accusations between the two campaigns, after Whitman launched a TV ad that featured Clinton accusing Brown of dishonesty over his fiscal record as the two squared off in the 1992 Democratic presidential primary.

Brown responded by questioning Clinton's own integrity and later apologized, but the Brown campaign points to the ad as a possible source of some of Whitman's recent slippage in the polls.

"The net effect of the Clinton ad is a constant reminder of people watching television that Meg Whitman is not telling the truth," Clifford said, pointing to a FactCheck.org analysis that taxation numbers Clinton cited in a CNN report at the time were reported incorrectly. "At this point, every time people see [the ad] on TV, they're seeing Meg Whitman trying to sell a story that they know is false."

But the Whitman campaign has stood by the Clinton ad's premise, pointing out that the taxes paid by the average Californian were higher under Brown's tenure than his predecessor's and that Brown did bring the state's budget into deficit.

"It's no surprise that a former Democrat president would come and campaign for the Democratic nominee in the largest state in the union," Ng from the Whitman campaign said. "However, if history is a guide, there is demonstrated animosity between these two. It'll be interesting to see how the visit plays out."

Brown and Whitman will square off in their first debate this Tuesday on the campus of The University of California at Davis.

 

Scott Conroy covers the White House for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at sconroy@realclearpolitics.com.

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