Quinnipiac finds Republican gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino surging into contention. He trails Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by a narrow 49 percent to 43 percent margin. This is the first likely voter poll that Quinnipiac has conducted, so it is hard to determine what kind of trend there is (if any). One wrinkle to take into account is that Conservative Rick Lazio isn't tested, which may result in the poll overstating how close Paladino really is. Regardless, this race isn't looking like the blowout we've been seeing for most of the cycle.

On Monday, Rasmussen Reports found a bounce for Paladino as well. In that poll, he holds Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to 54 percent of the vote, while taking 38 percent of the vote for himself. But, like Quinnipiac, Rasmussen didn’t include Rick Lazio in the survey.

The interesting thing is that 58 percent of the state's populace approving of the job Barack Obama is doing according to the Rasmussen poll, and most people have a favorable impression of Cuomo. This is just a year where people are trying to get as far away from establishment candidates as possible, and we're now seeing it show up in general election numbers.