More Election News

• AK: Write-in Campaign Option Poses Challenges for Murkowski
• NRCC to Expand Ad Buys to 11 Districts
• VT: Racine Concedes to Shumlin
• CA: Brown, Whitman Aim New Ads at Independents
• NY-1: Contentious Primary May Dash GOP Hopes
• IL: Obama's Old Seat in Jeopardy
• NJ-3: Adler and Runyan Firing Away Already
• WI: Feingold Labels Himself the Underdog Against Newcomer
• RI: Robitaille Alleges "Deal" Offered by Democrat Caprio
• PA: Candidates Spar Over Medical Device Tax
• AK: Walker Close to Decision on Whether to Continue Campaign
• WA-3: Heck Critical of Stimulus, HC
• NH: Anticipated GOP Debate Fireworks Fizzle

Senate

Florida - CNN/Time parachuted in with five polls of registered voters yesterday. The first poll was of the Florida Senate race, and it finds Republican Marco Rubio leading Independent Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek 36 percent to 34 percent to 24 percent. How this plays out in the general election is anyone's guess: While a switch from registered voters to likely voters typically benefits a Republican vis-à-vis a Democrat, the dynamics of a three-way race are less well established. Still, Rubio has to feel good that he's now led in three polls in a row. None of these polls offers more than a topline, so there's not too much more to do with them. Rubio leads by 2.3 points in the RCP Average.

California - CNN/Time also finds Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina by 4 points. If you assume that a likely voter screen would improve the Republicans' numbers by 2 or 3 points, this poll is perfectly consistent with the previous Rasmussen Reports and SurveyUSA polls showing Fiorina with a narrow lead. Boxer leads by 2.5 points in the RCP Average.

Kentucky - Rasmussen Reports, consistent with SurveyUSA, shows a 15-point lead for Republican Rand Paul over Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, 54 percent to 39 percent. CNN/Time, on the other hand, shows a 46-46 tie. The 46 percent for Conway in CNN/Time is his best showing of the entire campaign - this looks like an outlier, even among registered voter polls. Paul leads by 8.8 points in the RCP Average.

Governor

Arizona - There had been some speculation that Arizona could move toward the Democrats in the wake of Jan Brewer's debate meltdown. Rasmussen Reports finds nothing of the sort, putting Brewer, the Republican, up by 22 points over Attorney General Terry Goddard. This is actually the largest lead she has posted this cycle. She leads by 13 points in the RCP Average.

Florida - CNN/Time finds Democrat Alex Sink leading Republican Rick Scott 49 percent to 42 percent. Again, given that this is a poll of registered voters, this isn't a huge comfort for Sink, and the race is probably pretty close to tied in the electorate CNN/Time is sampling. Sink leads by 4.8 points in the RCP Average, although most of those polls were taken before Bud Chiles dropped out of the race and endorsed Sink.

California - Oddly enough, the two polls of the California Governor's race - CNN/Time and Rasmussen - see almost identical results, even though one poll is of registered voters and one is of likely voters. Rasmussen sees a 48/45 lead for Meg Whitman over Gerry Brown, while CNN/Time sees a 48/46 lead for Whitman. Mind you, Brown has held elected office in California since the Ford Administration, so it isn't really clear that he has much room for growth. Whitman leads by 1.5 points in the RCP Average.

House

Several more campaign polls (and a few straightforward House polls) were released. But first, Democratic polling firm Democracy Corps shows Republicans with a 7-point lead among likely voters, 49 percent to 42 percent. This is consistent with 1994, when Republicans won by seven points. The big question is going to be, where does that ten percent undecided vote go?

We Ask America - a previously obscure polling outfit that has been doing the heavy lifting on House races this year (and which was one of the few polling outfits to get the PA-12 special election right) - polled Illinois' 17th Congressional District. To summarize: liberal Democrat Lane Evans won the blue collar district in 1982, and managed to hold on for two decades. In 2002, he received an oddly-shaped, Democratic-leaning district. He retired in 2006, and Phil Hare won the district. It is Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so: Obama received 57 percent of the vote, while George Bush almost carried it in 2004.

Hare pretty much voted the Democratic line since coming to Congress, which isn't a particularly popular thing to do in this blue collar, swing district. It isn't entirely surprising therefore that he's trailing his opponent 38 percent to 41 percent; what is surprising is that he's trailing a relatively unknown pizza restaurant owner who finished the second quarter with $200,000 in the bank. It's just that kind of year for Democrats.

Here's a rundown of the campaign polls that were released:

NC-08 (POS (R)): Kissell (D) 39 percent, Johnson (R) 34 percent;

NC-04 (Action Solutions (R)): Price (D) 46 percent, Lawson (R) 47 percent;

WV-01 (POS (R)): Oliverio (D) 41 percent, McKinley (R) 36 percent;

MI-01 (TargetPoint (R)): Gary McDowell (D) 31 percent, Dan Benishek (R) 54 percent.

The NC-04 poll is especially jarring. Price was one of the surprise losers in 1994, but the district was redrawn by Democrats in 2002, and it gave John Kerry 55 percent of the vote and Barack Obama 62 percent of the vote. Again, campaign polls tend to show candidates at their best, so Price is probably somewhere right above 50 percent. But he should really be close to 60 percent, even in this environment.

Interestingly, the MI-01 poll is pretty consistent with a We Ask America poll from a few weeks back. This one looks like it could be getting away from the Democrats.