More Election News

• AK: Write-in Campaign Option Poses Challenges for Murkowski
• NRCC to Expand Ad Buys to 11 Districts
• VT: Racine Concedes to Shumlin
• CA: Brown, Whitman Aim New Ads at Independents
• NY-1: Contentious Primary May Dash GOP Hopes
• IL: Obama's Old Seat in Jeopardy
• NJ-3: Adler and Runyan Firing Away Already
• WI: Feingold Labels Himself the Underdog Against Newcomer
• RI: Robitaille Alleges "Deal" Offered by Democrat Caprio
• PA: Candidates Spar Over Medical Device Tax
• AK: Walker Close to Decision on Whether to Continue Campaign
• WA-3: Heck Critical of Stimulus, HC
• NH: Anticipated GOP Debate Fireworks Fizzle

Maine is a quirky state. Although it typically votes Democratic for president, at the state level its politics are, well, all over the place. It has two moderate Republican senators, and the state Senate is very nearly split between the parties; as late as 2004 both chambers had Democratic edges of only a few seats. Democrats have a relatively narrow six-point registration advantage over Republicans, but the dominant political affiliation is Independent. In fact, voting for Independent candidates for governor is so common that no major party candidate has won a majority of the vote since 1982 (the state actually elected an Independent governor in 1994 and 1998).

So it isn't totally shocking to see horrendous numbers for Maine Democrats in PPP's latest round of polling. In the governor's race, Republican tea party candidate Paul LePage leads Democrat Libby Mitchell 43 percent to 29 percent, with Independent Eliot Cutler coming in at 11 percent. What makes this somewhat surprising is that LePage is an across-the-board conservative, on both social and fiscal issues. DGA spending might be able to turn this race around, but it will be tougher than you might expect in a state where the president's approval rating is 44 percent approve/51 percent disapprove (and where outgoing Democratic Governor John Baldacci is at 31/57).

With these numbers, it isn't all that surprising that the Democratic representatives in the 1st and 2nd Districts are also showing signs of weakness. The 1st District is the southern portion of the state. It's the more urban of the two districts (50 percent) and it gave President Obama 61 percent of the vote in 2008. But Representative Chellie Pingree only managed 55 percent of the vote in her inaugural run in 2008, despite outspending her opponent by roughly 4:1. PPP finds her with a favorable rating that barely outweighs her unfavorable rating. She leads her opponent, businessman Dean Scontras, 47 percent to 38 percent. Scontras raised a decent amount of cash, especially for this relatively inexpensive district. It's disconcerting for Pingree to be below 50 percent, and she is in at least some jeopardy.

The 2nd District is another story. It is the sprawling Northern Tier of the state. As the Almanac of American Politics reminds us, it is the largest district east of the Mississippi River, and is overwhelmingly rural. It is an economically troubled region of the country, and is populist in nature. George W. Bush came within shooting distance of its electoral votes both times he ran for President, and H. Ross Perot almost ran ahead of Bill Clinton here in 1992.

Michael Michaud is a socially moderate, fiscally liberal member, who has supported most of the President's agenda in what is essentially a swing district. It isn't really that surprising to see him leading his opponent by only a 45 percent to 38 percent margin, with the greatest number of undecided voters being Republican. Only 39 percent of the district's voters approve of the job he's doing, while 41 percent disapprove. His Republican opponent, Jason Levesque, has raised a quarter of a million dollars, which goes a long way in Bangor. We'll be keeping a close eye on this one.