More Election News

• AK: Write-in Campaign Option Poses Challenges for Murkowski
• NRCC to Expand Ad Buys to 11 Districts
• VT: Racine Concedes to Shumlin
• CA: Brown, Whitman Aim New Ads at Independents
• NY-1: Contentious Primary May Dash GOP Hopes
• IL: Obama's Old Seat in Jeopardy
• NJ-3: Adler and Runyan Firing Away Already
• WI: Feingold Labels Himself the Underdog Against Newcomer
• RI: Robitaille Alleges "Deal" Offered by Democrat Caprio
• PA: Candidates Spar Over Medical Device Tax
• AK: Walker Close to Decision on Whether to Continue Campaign
• WA-3: Heck Critical of Stimulus, HC
• NH: Anticipated GOP Debate Fireworks Fizzle

Senate

Colorado -- A new poll, conducted jointly by a Republican polling firm and a Democratic polling firm, has Democratic Senator Michael Bennet up 43 percent to 40 percent over Ken Buck. This is still pretty grim news for Bennet, who has been below 46 percent in every poll conducted by someone other than PPP (D). The undecideds in this poll are mostly Independents, who have tended to break toward Republicans in polls this year; this could explain the difference between this poll and, say, Rasmussen, which shows a 49 percent to 40 percent advantage for Buck.

Delaware - Rasmussen Reports shows Republican Mike Castle still under 50 percent, leading Chris Coons 48 percent to 37 percent. This is worrisome for a longtime incumbent, facing off against an unknown opponent in a state that isn't exactly favorably inclined toward his party. Still, he fares much better than his primary challenger, Christine O'Donnell, who trails Coons 36 percent to 47 percent.

Washington - Democratic polling firm Fairbanks Maslin, polling for the Murray campaign, shows Senator Patty Murray leading Dino Rossi 50 percent to 45 percent. On its face, this is inconsistent with most recent polling, which tends to show a Rossi lead. But reading between the lines it makes sense -- campaign polls tend to show the candidates at the extremes of the error margin in their "best case scenario" - mentally subtracting 3 points from Murray and adding 3 points to Rossi gives a result perfectly consistent with what other polls are showing. Rossi leads by 2.3 points in the RCP Average.

California - Rasmussen Reports shows Carly Fiornia leading Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer 48 percent to 47 percent. This represents an improvement for Fiorina from earlier Rasmussen polling, which has shown Boxer leading by five or so. Still, this is California, and 55 percent of voters at least somewhat approve of the job the President is doing. It's also worth noting that for the second poll in a row, "leaners" have broken toward Boxer when pushed; the undecideds may break her way. Boxer leads by two in the RCP Average.

House

Yesterday was a big day for House race polls (I discussed the generic ballot findings here). SurveyUSA showed Republican Dave Reichert with the first big lead of his career (54 percent to 41 percent); this is consistent with the recent open primary results, where Republicans combined for almost 60 percent of the vote.

It was also poll dump day for House campaigns. Democratic campaigns signaled the start of election season by releasing the following polls, en masse. I'm not linking all of these, since campaign polls should be taken with a grain of salt, and since there aren't any internals or discussion for most of these. The incumbent is listed first; open seats are appropriately noted:

IL-10 (Open, Kirk (R)): Seals (D) 49%, Dold (R) 36%;
KS-04 (Open, Tiahrt (R)): Goyle (D) 47%, Pompeo (R) 50%;
MS-1: Childers (D) 46%, Nunnelee (R) 41%;
VA-5: Perriello (D) 44%, Hurt (R) 46%;
NY-24: Arcuri (D) 50%, Hanna (R) 37%;
SD-AL: Herseth-Sandlin (D) 50%, Noem (R) 39%;
AL-02: Bright (D) 52%, Roby (R) 43%;
NC-08: Kissell (D) 48%, Johnson (R) 36%;
PA-04: Altmire (D) 51%, Rothfus (R) 24%;

These polls are really not particularly good news for Democratic incumbents. Remember, campaign polls tend to represent the best case scenario for the candidate. If the best case scenario for these incumbent candidates is being at or below 50 percent of the vote against relative unknowns, it is not a good sign. Especially at risk is Tom Perriello, whose own polling apparently shows him losing.

As to the open races, Goyle is trailing his opponent in a heavily Republican district, even in the best case scenario. Things look better for Seals, but he's run twice before in this district; if we assume his "real" number is around 45, that's still not spectacular (but not awful, either). He's still the favorite at this point, but this should tighten.

A pair of Republican campaigns also released polls. State Rep. Sandy Adams' campaigns shows her leading Rep. Suzanne Kosmas 49 percent to 37 percent. Even assuming this is a best case scenario, it paints a pretty bleak picture for Kosmas, who is surely under 50 percent. In Connecticut's 5th District, represented by Nancy Johnson until 2006, challenger Sam Caliguri shows himself a point behind Chris Murphy, 40 percent to 39 percent. Again, this is a campaign poll, so caveat lector, but it seems that Murphy is also below 50 percent.