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On Friday, at a town hall in small town Oklahoma, conservative Sen. Tom Coburn said Newt Gingrich is "the last person I'd vote for, for president." Gingrich is "a super-smart man but he doesn't know anything about commitment to marriage." Gingrich lacks, in Coburn's view, "the character traits necessary to be a great president."
Coburn was part of the GOP class of 1994. The House that Newt not so much built but led. Yet Coburn cannot look past Gingrich's baggage. And while reasons vary, the public likely cannot either.
Gingrich consistently polls among the top five contenders for the GOP nomination in 2012. That says more about Gingrich's name recognition than viability. Early polls are notoriously skewed to familiar faces. It's in fact Gingrich's inability to remake his familiar face that explains why the presidency will likely never be his.
Gingrich is partly undone by his un-presidential proclivity. He has always been provocative. But Gingrich's charge against the "Ground Zero mosque" led even jaded Beltway insiders to wince. Gingrich compared Islam to Nazis, as if Islam attacked New York on September 11. No less than Pat Buchanan, a conservative granddaddy of wedge politics, described Gingrich as a "political opportunist" on MSNBC.
Yet Gingrich is no mere provocateur. As David Broder noted a few years ago, however "exaggerated and imprudent" Gingrich's language, Gingrich is a serious mind. This view of Gingrich endures. Today's young GOP idea man, Paul Ryan, is a Gingrich protégé. Gingrich remains famous for his machine gun emails, policy proposals at the ready.
Still, Gingrich seems unable to refrain from overplaying his hand. Gingrich told a foreign newspaper last year, the Jerusalem Post, that President Obama's engagement toward Iran was a "fantasy" and "very dangerous for Israel." Gingrich knows that traditionally "politics ends at the water's edge." He argued precisely that point during the Bush era, as recently as 2007 on Fox News.
That's also Gingrich's problem. Not any one statement of hypocrisy. But that he has come to be defined by it. Coburn's reference to Gingrich's three marriages makes the point. Gingrich had an affair while leading the GOP effort to impeach Bill Clinton for lying about an affair. He helped push one speaker out in disgrace only to be forced to resign, amid his own ethical imbroglio and electoral failings.
Gingrich spent years attempting to escape that baggage. By the close of 2008, only days after Obama won the presidency, no less than the late Robert Novak floated Gingrich for 2012.
"Gingrich is far from a unanimous or even a consensus choice to run for president in 2012, but there is a strong feeling in Republican ranks that he is the only leader of their party who has shown the skill and energy to attempt a comeback quickly," Novak wrote.
But Republicans are confident today. The GOP has taken its largest lead ever in Gallup's congressional generic ballot survey. Yet amid this Republican recovery, Gingrich remains the same polarizing figure. Only 36 percent of Americans have a favorable view of Gingrich, according to a July Gallup poll. That generally matches his best standing throughout the mid and late 1990s.
Today, there is a Republican desire to return to the conservative past. But that past ends with Ronald Reagan, not Gingrich. Modern Republicans see much to emulate in Gingrich's 1994 barnstorm. Proof will come within a month, as Republicans unveil their sequel to Gingrich's "Contract with America."
That's likely the limit of Gingrich's revival. Gingrich has wanted the presidency at least since he took the leadership post in 1995, as he confessed to Novak that year.
The presidency is, however, only further from his grasp today. He remains a don of GOP policy and politics. Yet he has proven unable to regain his mid-90s power.
Last summer, Gingrich was the keynote speaker at a major fundraising dinner for the Senate and House Republican campaign committees. But it was Sarah Palin who was originally asked to keynote the night. Palin hesitated. So officials went with the safe backup. Palin still attended. She did not offer a speech. But Republicans gathered around her table the most. Fox interviewed her in primetime. She was the buzz of the night. Republicans' new rock star had upstaged the old leader. Gingrich was still good for a policy speech. But the party had moved on.
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