ShareCould a Three-Way Race Hurt Dems in Alaska?
Could a Three-Way Race Hurt Dems in Alaska?
As the Alaska Divison Of Elections prepares to begin counting absentee ballots in the state's Republican Senate primary, a new poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) offers some surprising findings for how the general election might play out under two different scenarios in November.
Sarah Palin-endorsed challenger Joe Miller is currently leading incumbent Lisa Murkowski by 1,668 votes, but the Division of Elections said that it had 23,472 absentee and questioned ballots left to process, most of which were expected to have been cast in the Republican primary race between Miller and Murkowski.
There will be an initial count of the outstanding ballots on Tuesday and subsequent counts on Sept. 3 and Sept. 8.
Alaska Democratic officials had been heartened by the prospect that Miller would hold onto his lead and complete his upset victory, a result which might then lead Murkowski to strike a deal that would allow her to run in the general election as the nominee for the Libertarian Party.
The thinking among state Democrats was that their party's nominee, Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, would benefit from a three-way race, in which the Republican vote would be split between Miller and Murkowski.
But the PPP survey released on Sunday showed that in a two-way race, McAdams was in striking distance of Miller, trailing 47 percent to 39 percent. In a three-way race, however, Murkowski was in the lead with 38 percent, while Miller stood at 34 percent, and McAdams was far behind at 22 percent.
The poll shows that Murkowski's support in a three-way race would be rather evenly distributed, as she would pick up the support of 38 percent of independents, 32 percent of Republicans, and 28 percent of Democrats.
McAdams' support among Democrats stands at 81 percent in a two-way race against Miller but drops to only 57 percent in a three-way race that includes Murkowski.
Though the PPP poll will test some preconceived notions of how a three-way race would change the equation in Alaska, interested parties will note that polling leading up to the GOP primary proved wildly off the mark, with most surveys showing Murkowski holding onto a more than comfortable lead, and even the Tea Party Express poll showing Miller losing by double digits only four days before the primary.
Former state legislator and Murkowski supporter Andrew Halcro also commissioned a poll to test how Murkowski would fare in a general election battle, should she lose to Miller and decide to run as a Libertarian Party candidate. Halcro, one of Alaska's most vocal and prominent Sarah Palin critics, ran as an independent candidate against in the 2006 gubernatorial election, coming in third behind Palin and Democrat Tony Knowles.
The tone in Alaska has become increasingly heated over the past few days, as both sides have traded accusations.
On Friday, Murkowski lashed out after a tweet was sent from Joe Miller's Twitter account, which asked, "What's the difference between selling out your party's values and the oldest profession?"
Though it seemed clear that the tweet sent by a Miller Staffer was equating the Libertarian Party with prostitution, not Murkowski, the Miller campaign deleted the tweet, and Miller apologized for "any hurt feelings caused by this poorly conceived post."
Meanwhile, the National Republican Senatorial Committee sent its general counsel, Sean Cairncross, to Alaska at the request of Murkowski, leading the Miller campaign to suggest that the committee was trying to interfere with the vote.
"Alaskans won't stand for any post-election foul play," Miller said in a statement to the media.
The NRSC said that it would lend its support to Miller if he were to defeat Murkowski after the final votes have been tallied.
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