ShareDems See Possible Opening With Miller's Likely Win
Dems See Possible Opening With Miller's Likely Win
Having just pulled off what appears likely to be the biggest political upset of the year, the Senate campaign for Alaska Republican Joe Miller couldn't help but gloat a bit on Tuesday night by tweeting, "What's the moose hunting like in the Beltway?"
While Miller certainly had good reason to bask in the moment, it is far from certain that the Sarah Palin-backed insurgent Republican will become "Joe the Senator."
With Miller's likely primary victory (He leads by 1,668 votes with absentee ballots still to be counted), Democrats suddenly sense an opportunity to win a race that has been considered an easy Republican hold.
The initial reaction among some state and national Democrats after Miller's win was to consider recruiting an alternative candidate with stronger name recognition to replace little-known Scott McAdams, the mayor of Sitka (population 8,889, as of 2008) on the ballot. State senator Hollis French, who was a chief antagonist to Sarah Palin during the 2008 Troopergate saga and lost to Ethan Berkowitz in Tuesday's Democratic gubernatorial primary, was one name that was tossed around.
State party officials sat down with Sen. Mark Begich and other Alaska Democrats to discuss the issue, RealClearPolitics has learned, but they agreed to stand by McAdams, who only gained party support in his primary race after other better-known candidates turned down state Democrats' persistent efforts to convince them to run.
McAdams soothed some of the heartburn within the party after his first conference call with reporters on Wednesday, in which he came across as poised and up to speed on statewide issues. Then in a speech on Wednesday at the Alaska Democrats Unity Dinner in Anchorage, McAdams made it clear that he will not make the same mistake that Murkowski did in neglecting to define Miller early.
The Democratic nominee struck an aggressively contemptuous note, referred to "this Joe Miller character" and calling him a "fringe character."
"I see Joe Miller align behind a Hummer with armed guards march through a family parade in Eagle River," McAdams said, alluding to video that was posted online of Miller supporters carrying assault weapons during a parade. "I see Joe Miller talk about the abolishment of the Department of Education and the diminishment of public schools in general, but the good news is that we as Democrats are for the fair and adequate public election of every kid in this state."
Like everyone else who was shocked by Tuesday's outcome, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is taking a step back to wait for the final results of the GOP primary to come in and will then reassess their chances. But if they do decide to help McAdams make a serious run for it, national Democrats figure to echo their nominee's line of attack, which they have already been employing relentlessly against other tea party-backed Republican nominees in Nevada, Colorado, and Kentucky.
"Attorney Joe Miller is an extreme politician who wants to end Social Security, Medicare and unemployment benefits for Alaskans," DSCC National Press Secretary Deirdre Murphy said in a preview of what is to come over the next couple of months. "His strict social doctrine will only please his tea party backers, not the hardworking people of Alaska."
As McAdams also demonstrated on Wednesday, he will also seize upon the very platform that appealed so much to Miller's fiscally conservative to libertarian primary voters. After all, it won't be easy for a candidate who vows to fight government largess to win a general election in Alaska-the state that has long benefited more than any other from federal pork projects.
"I hear him talk about the end of federal investment in Alaska," McAdams said on Wednesday, eliciting uproarious laughter from the crowd of Democrats in attendance.
"There's a vote getter!" an anonymous voice in the crowd shouted, causing another eruption from the crowd.
McAdams continued to hammer home the point. "But the good news is that we as Democrats stand up for working people," he said. "We believe in job creation. We believe that Alaska as a young state deserves to be developed like every other western state in the history of the United States."
McAdams held a meeting with Alaska Democratic officials on Thursday to map out his general election strategy and logistical operation.
Despite its reputation in the Lower 48 as a deeply conservative bastion, Alaska is more a purple state than a dark-red one. Lisa Murkowski, whose senate career now hangs by a thread, is generally considered a moderate Republican, while the state's other senator, Mark Begich, is a Democrat.
The state legislature is typically split about evenly between the two parties, and before Palin was named to the Republican ticket in 2008, the Obama campaign had planned to launch a serious effort to compete for Alaska's three electoral votes.
Of course, delaying any thorough assessment of what will come next is the uncertainty that remains regarding the Republican primary's final vote tally.
Alaska GOP pollster Dave Dittman, whose poll conducted before the Miller surge showed that 62 percent of Alaskans felt that Murkowski should be reelected, predicted that Murkowski will over-perform with the outstanding absentee ballots but that it would not be enough to push her past Miller in the final vote count.
"There's probably close to 6,000 absentees out on the Republican side, and Sen. Murkowski would have to get a little over 60 percent of them, but I doubt that," Dittman said. "I think she'll end up losing by about 400 or so."
Murkowski could end up losing the GOP primary once the absentee ballots are tallied and then decide to launch a third-party or write-in campaign. Her options are limited by state election law, but a Murkowski campaign official has already told The Daily Beast that they are seriously exploring how a third-party bid might be run.
One possibility would be for the Libertarian Party candidate to drop out of the race and allow Murkowski to replace him.
"It's far better than a write-in," Ditmann said. "Write-ins can work, but they're such a hassle. It would be much easier if she just became the Libertarian candidate because everyone would know who she is and why she's doing it."
The tactic may sound farfetched, but in the offbeat world of Alaska politics, there is direct precedent for it.
In 1990, Wally Hickel decided to enter the governor's race after the Democratic and Republican nominees had already won their primaries. Though he did not agree with its secessionist platform, Hickel was offered and accepted a slot on the Alaska Independence Party ticket, and ended up winning a close three-way race.
Additionally, Democratic Governor Tony Knowles was first elected in a three-way contest in 1994, this time with an assist from the Alaska Independence Party nominee.
State Democrats are salivating over the three-candidate scenario, which they hope will result in Miller and Murkowski splitting the Republican vote evenly, leaving McAdams an opportunity to win with as little as 34 percent.
In an election year with few opportunities for Democratic pickups, Alaska is now one to watch closely.
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