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Show Me State Sleepers?

Show Me State Sleepers?

By Sean Trende - August 18, 2010

We Ask America (WAA), one of the few polling companies to call the PA-12 Special Election correctly, is out with new polling for two potentially competitive House races in the Show-Me State. Missouri's 3rd District gave John Kerry 57% of the vote and Barack Obama 60%. Normally a Republican doesn't have much of a chance of winning here, but WAA shows the makings of a potentially competitive race. They find incumbent Russ Carnahan receiving 48% of the vote, with Ed Martin getting 39%. The bulk of the undecideds are Republicans and Independents, so Martin has some room for growth here. But his combative nature, affiliation with the Club for Growth, and penchant for making controversial statements may cause this race to fade by the fall.

In the Fourth District, seventeen-term Congressman Ike Skelton is in for his toughest race since 1982. We Ask America finds him with a narrow 45%-42% lead over former State Rep. Vicki Hartzler. If the undecideds break against the universally-known Congressman - which would be the historical trend - then Skelton will likely find himself in a heap of trouble in November.

Sean Trende is Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com.

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