For years, New Mexico was an island of Democratic-leaning voting in the rock-ribbed Republican Mountain West. Republicans haven't controlled the state Senate since the 1920s, nor have they won the state House since the 1950s. The state has a Hispanic plurality, many of whose families have lived in the Land of Enchantment since what is now New Mexico was simply a part of Mexico. Geographically, the counties in the north are heavily Hispanic, the counties in the southeast are mostly Republican, and the city of Albuquerque and its suburbs are a Democratic-leaning swing area.
In 2002, Democrats replaced libertarian Republican Gary Johnson with Democrat Bill Richardson. Richardson was a fairly popular governor, who won re-election overwhelmingly in 2006. But Richardson's numbers have taken a beating as the economy grinds on, hitting 28 percent earlier this year.
Needless to say, these numbers have been a drag on Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish's bid to occupy the statehouse this fall. Republicans have nominated Dona Ana County (Las Cruces) District Attorney Susana Martinez to be their standard bearer. Martinez has narrowly led Denish in the polls, but it is early, the leads are small, and there is plenty of time for the state's Democratic tilt to pull the race back towards the Democrats.
Sean Trende is Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com.
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