
New polling in three states shows how difficult the gubernatorial race landscape is for Democrats in a year the party has more seats to defend and fewer chances for pick-ups. The Democratic nominees in Nevada, Pennsylvania and South Carolina are all trailing by double digits, according to three separate polls released today.
South Carolina is easily the most difficult of the three for Democrats, but the state represents something Republicans have seen in other races as well -- the recruitment of rising star candidates. In South Carolina that's Nikki Haley, who defeated a competitive primary field of more experienced opponents.
A Democrat was in the governor's mansion here just eight years ago, but since Sarah Palin's endorsement during the primary Haley's prospects have increased dramatically, and most expect her to defeat state Sen. Vincent Sheheen. Last month she even graced the cover of Newsweek with the headline, "The Face of the New South."
A Rasmussen poll out today shows the race will indeed be a difficult one for Democrats, as Haley leads by a 49 percent to 35 percent margin.
In Nevada, Republicans escaped from Jim Gibbons, an incumbent with disapproval ratings in the 60s, as their nominee. In a down year for Democrats overall, the state party talked federal judge Brian Sandoval into giving up his lifetime position for the chance to serve as governor, and he easily defeated Gibbons in the June primary.
His general election opponent is none other than Rory Reid, son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who's battling low approval ratings and continues to struggle in his own race against an unexpected challenger -- though the elder Reid's prospects do appear to be improving.
In today's Mason-Dixon poll, 40 percent hold an unfavorable view of Rory, a Clark County Commission member since 2002. Thanks to Sandoval's strong candidacy, Reid's polarizing last name and the overall landscape, Sandoval enjoys a 19 point lead. He wins 50 percent support followed by Reid with 31 percent, "None of These" with 3 percent and 14 percent undecided.
The latest RCP Average has Sandoval up by more than 14 points.
In Pennsylvania, after eight years of Democrat Ed Rendell as governor it's the GOP's turn -- if things continue as they have over the last six decades. Not since 1954 has one party held the governorship in Pennsylvania for more than eight years, and Republicans think they have a candidate who can keep the trend going.
A new Rasmussen poll finds Attorney General Tom Corbett with 50 percent support and leading Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato by 11 points, a margin that's changed little over the past month.
While neither party has held the governorship for more than two terms in the last 56 years, neither has held it for less either. So if history holds up, a Corbett win in November would indicate a second one in 2014 as well.
Not all is bad for Democrats this year, however, as their fortunes in gubernatorial races have begun to look up some in several states. They include: Colorado, which earlier this year looked like a surefire pick-up for Republicans but now has the Democrats leading a three way race that includes Tom Tancredo; Minnesota, where a Star Tribune poll on Sunday showed Democrats in the lead; and Georgia, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes is back for another run at the governor's mansion.
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