Kentucky politics can largely be explained by the state’s congressional districts. The 1st and 2nd Districts are (roughly) the Jackson Purchase and Pennyrile areas of the state, areas which vote like the Deep South. The 3rd and 6th Districts represent urban Louisville and greater Lexington, while the 4th District is the Republican Cincinnati and Louisville suburbs. The 5th District is an amalgam of two older districts, one of which was old mountain Republican territory, and one of which was heavily unionized and Democratic coal mining country. The name of the game for Republicans is to run well in the 4th and 5th and hold their ground in the 1st and 2nd, while Democrats try to add to their bases in Louisville, Lexington, and the coal mining areas of the 5th.
After Sen. Jim Bunning’s near-defeat at the hands of then-obscure state Senator Dan Mongiardo in 2004 and Governor Ernie Fletcher’s disastrous re-election campaign in 2007, Republicans succeeded in convincing Bunning not to seek re-election. Both parties had competitive primaries this year. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo lost to Attorney General Jack Conway. On the Republican side, Secretary of State Trey Grayson was badly beaten by libertarian upstart Rand Paul.
Paul has made a series of missteps, including an ambiguous commitment to the Civil Rights Act of 1964. But Conway had to tack leftward to win his primary. He supported the Democrats’ health care bill and has supported cap-and-trade legislation in the past – dangerous positions in a state where the President sports a 40 percent approval rating. This could be a situation where the state’s typical alignment is reversed. Paul runs weaker in the suburban 4th District, while Conway runs behind in the coal regions of the state and in the Pennyrile. This race Leans Republican for now.
Sean Trende is a Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com.
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