In the wake of his vote for cap-and-trade legislation, Republicans had high hopes for knocking off Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher in this R+11 district that swung heavily against Democrats over the past decade. But according to SurveyUSA, they've got some work to do. The fourteen-term Rep. leads his opponent, GOP Rep. Morgan Griffith, by a 52%-39% margin. Griffith has some room to grow, as Boucher is getting more-or-less unanimous support among liberals and moderates in the district, as well as 32% of the conservatives. Griffith will need to convince those conservatives to come back to the Republican fold if he is going to become competitive in this.
Sean Trende is a Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com.