We've moved the Arkansas Governor's race to Likely Democrat from Safe Democrat. The two likely voter polls that have come out over the last couple of weeks have shown Governor Beebe hovering around 50%, which is probably consistent in this environment with the registered voter poll showing him at 57%. The RCP Average has him at 52.3%. Beebe is still strongly favored to former state Senator Jim Keet, but there's some signs of a path to victory for Keet now.
Sean Trende is a Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com.