AZ-Sen:  We've moved this to Safe Republican.  The likely rating was predicated on the possibility of J.D. Hayworth upsetting McCain in the primary.  But the polls just aren't showing Hayworth in any danger of catching fire, and McCain is dominating the head-to-head matchups.

WV-Sen:  Republican chances of picking up Robert Byrd's Senate seat took a hit with the announcement that Rep. Shelley Moore Capito won't be running for Senate.   In light of that, Republicans are scrambling for a candidate, and we move the race to Likely Democrat.

IA-03:  Boswell is in some trouble, but his GOP opponent has only raised $240,000.  Des Moines isn't exactly the world's most expensive media market, and outside groups will probably get involved, but we nevertheless move this to Leans Democrat from Tossup.

ID-01:  This is pretty counter-intuitive given the heavy Republican tilt of the district, but Democrat Walt Minnick has an extremely conservative  voting record.  Moreover, his GOP opponent, Raul Labrador,  is an ally of former Rep. Bill Sali, who was controversial enough to lose to Minnick in 2008.  Labrador closed the Second Quarter with $60, 000 cash-on-hand to Minnick's $1.8M.  This race looks like a leans Democrat race for now, not a tossup.

IL-11:  Two polls have shown Halvorsen trailing, and her GOP opponent is raising funds smartly.  She has a pretty solidly liberal voting record, and we are moving to Leans GOP pickup.

IL-17:  Phil Hare has had some trouble with YouTube videographers.  And his opponent now has about $300K in the bank.  A recent campaign poll shows Hare trailing.  This isn't an overwhelmingly Democratic district, so given all of this, Leans Democrat seems about right.

NC-08: Larry Kissell raised only $100K last quarter, while he drew the more electable opponent out of the GOP primary.  This is looking more and more like a GOP pickup.

NC-11:  Heath Shuler is pretty conservative (though he voted yes on cap-and-trade), and his opponent hasn't been successful raising money.  Shuler isn't out of the woods -- a 1994-style gale could knock him out.  But for right now this race isn't looking terribly competitive, and we're moving to Likely Democrat.