The latest Quinnipiac poll from Pennsylvania (7/6-7/11, 1367 RVs, MOE +/- 2.7%), has Democrat Joe Sestak moving into a tie with Pat Toomey.  This represents an improvement for Sestak in Quinnipiac's polling; he trailed by two in May, and by eight in April.  One interesting facet of Toomey's poll numbers is their stability.  They've been within a couple points of his current 43% average since January (except from a couple of pollsters who show an unusually high number of undecideds).  Whether this represents a ceiling for Toomey -- this could be the case if Toomey has firmed up his Republican and Republican-leaning -Independent base but has difficulty with the rest -- remains to be seen.  Toomey leads by two in the RCP Average, 43%-41%.

One difficulty Sestak may encounter is the President's unpopularity:  He's 46%-49% approve/disapprove among registered voters.  48% believe the President does not deserve re-election, and he loses to a generic Republican 41%-40%.  These are difficult fundamentals for Sestak to rise above, without even getting to the fact that he pushed himself pretty far to the left to win the Democratic primary, which may neutralize Toomey's conservatism.