(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRIS WALLACE, FOX NEWS HOST: Are you willing to pledge right here, right now that you will run in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate and not run as an independent?

CHARLIE CRIST, R-FL, U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE: I'm running as a Republican.

WALLACE: Are you ruling out you will file as an independent by the April 30 deadline?

CRIST: That's right. That's right. I'm running as a Republican.

WALLACE: You will run for Senate and run in the Republican primary?

CRIST: Chris, I'm running for United States Senate. I know that our country needs help. I'm running as a Republican.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRET BAIER, "SPECIAL REPORT" HOST: Chris Wallace asked that question five times on this set. Florida governor Charlie Crist saying he is running as a Republican. Well, no. He's running as an independent. Carl Cameron broke the news today in Florida.

And here is why. Here is the poll that the latest poll, the Real Clear Politics average that he was looking at, trailing Marco Rubio there, the former house speaker, by double digits.

Then there is a new Rasmussen Reports poll that has it very close. And this tracks the recent Quinnipiac poll, as Charlie Crist an independent. Marco Rubio still with the lead there.

What about all of this? Let's bring in the panel, Steve Hayes, senior writer for The Weekly Standard, A.B. Stoddard, associate editor of The Hill, and syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer. A.B.?

A.B. STODDARD, ASSOCIATE EDITOR, THE HILL: Well, I'm sitting in the Charlie Crist seat I notice.

BAIER: Yes!

STODDARD: But I'm going to tell you the truth. I'm not surprised. He had no choice. It was an easy decision to realize 20 points behind or more in the polls he couldn't win in the Republican primary, Charlie Crist.

But I think that the next couple of days and weeks will be very difficult ones. Do you have Republican staff that leaves you? Do you tell the voters of Florida that you are going to caucus with Harry Reid and the Democrats when you get to town if you win this race, or are you going to vote for Mitch McConnell for leader and be hanging out and voting with Republicans?

These are questions we have no idea the answers to. A very steep uphill. Do the donors want their money back? What kind of basis is there in the political class for him to run an independent bid?

I would note that Kendrick Meek, the Democratic candidate, is a very weak player and I do think a governor like Charlie Crist who now has teachers unions loving him, who is a lifelong member of the NAACP and very active in the United Negro College fund. I think he will give Meek a run for his money.

BAIER: With Democratic voters.

STODDARD: Yes.

BAIER: How much does this hurt Rubio and the Republicans?

STEVE HAYES, SENIOR WRITER, THE WEEKLY STANDARD: I think it would have been better for Rubio if he would have defeated Crist in the Republican primary, so in that sense I think it hurts.

But you have so many questions about Charlie Crist. And this sit he kind of move, it's interesting to hear that, you played the Chris Wallace sound bite again. He was painfully uncomfortable, because I think he knew at the time he was considering running as an independent, and that's why Chris asked him so many times.

So I think he knew at the time he wasn't telling the truth. The real difficulty that Charlie Crist faces now is what are his principles? What does he run on? You can't run on just being a politician, can't run on just being a guy. He hasn't done that much as governor. His approval rating plummeted over the past year.

He has made statements about what he was going to do, how he would run as a Republican, and he backed off of those. He used to oppose drilling offshore, and then when he was being considered as a potential vice presidential candidate, he was in favor of it, and now he's opposed to it again.

He couldn't say yesterday who he was going to caucus with, Republicans or Democrats. Voters are willing to forgive a lot. But they want somebody who actually believes something, in something other than himself.

BAIER: And for control of the Senate potentially in the balance, even though it's a stretch for Republicans to get all ten, who is he going to caucus with is a big deal, Charles.

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: It's important. The fact is that you could ask him today and no matter what answer he gives you won't believe him because we now know that the pledges he makes have a three weak expiration dates. So if he tells you he will caucus with Republicans or Democrats there is no reason you'd believe him.

I think he does have a chance even though he doesn't stand for anything that I particularly see because if the Democrats and liberals in Florida think strategically, they will decide that Meek is not a guy they want to back in the end because he is going to lose.

And if you want somebody who is not Rubio who is, I think, he is the Barack Obama of the Republicans, he is to the party what Obama was in 2005, 2004 - young, attractive, articulate, ethnic, and sort of embodying a kind of upcoming ideology. I think he would have a strong chance. I think Democrats might split off and go for Crist.

BAIER: I want to talk about President Obama in Illinois today. Take a listen at this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: Treasurer and soon to be Senator Alexi Giannoulias.

(APPLAUSE)

ALEXI GIANNOULIAS, D-IL, U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE: There are a lot of rumors and innuendo out there, but the White House is supportive of this campaign because they know we need to stand up for Wall Street reform and move this country forward. I'm excited to have their support.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: Alexi Giannoulias is the Democratic candidate for President Obama's old seat when he was Senator Obama. There is the latest poll. Republican Mark Kirk up. Giannoulias has a bit of a problem - his family bank was taken over by the FDIC this week, and that's created a stir. Today the president endorsed him.

KRAUTHAMMER: When a guy's bank has just failed and campaigns on financial reform you know we have reached a new level of irony in this country.

BAIER: A.B.?

STODDARD: The White House completely ignored him. They have not done anything to help him all along. I was surprised to read that the president would be seen with him. Giannoulias running ads he can because of the failure of the bank relate to the common man on the streets of America who have been kicked around by the big banks.

I think he is making lemonade out of lemons, but I think with the clock running out the White House was forced to show their hand on this race and do something to help him out.

BAIER: Is the president going to do more for the race, Steve?

HAYES: Now that he is in, he has to. There was a question whether Giannoulias would be the candidate in several weeks or several months. Now that the president publicly backed him and done campaign event for him, I think he has to be - they have to be all in.

BAIER: Quickly, the third race, I want to put up the polls for Arlen Specter against Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania. There you see it. The latest, very close. Arlen Specter who became one year ago a Democrat from Republican. Quickly down the line, how is this lining up, Steve?

HAYES: I think Specter has the White House backing and strong White House backing I think as part of his pledge to become a Democrat and caucus with the Democrats. I think the White House packing gets him over the line just as the Bush White House backing got him over the line against Pat Toomey years ago.

STODDARD: I'm surprised to see it tighten again. It was tight at first and it seemed that the White House's backing was not going to be able to help Specter in that race against Joe Sestak. Now it's tightening again, and it's interesting, and a tight race against Toomey, the person that the Republican establishment could never win in Pennsylvania.

But Arlen Specter, no matter what party he's in, he has a real race on his hands.

BAIER: I should point out, the Real Clear Politics average has it a bit wider than that.

KRAUTHAMMER: It goes back historically. The current stuff looks like dead heat. And therefore, the correct answer is too close to call.