US-Israeli tensions are having subtle ripple effects on the electorate. Polls show, however, that President Obama retains leeway with Jewish voters, like the public overall, to reasonably pressure Israel.

US Jewish support for Obama remains strong. American Jews also back his position on several key Israeli policies. A large majority oppose settlement expansion, for example. But on other issues, like pressuring Israel to take the first steps toward a peace agreement, American Jews are deeply ambivalent. And this is why Obama's Israeli policy is generally less popular with Jews than the president himself.

Obama could cross a red line that severely risked Israel's security. That would undercut his Jewish backing. But no modern president has broadly shifted away from the US-Israeli alliance. And there is no indication Obama would veer widely from that precedent. Such a move would, in political terms, likely risk more than his Jewish support.

In February, for the first time in almost two decades, more than six in 10 Americans told the Gallup poll that they are more sympathetic to the Israelis than Palestinians.

Recent events have, however, chipped away at that support. Fifty-eight percent of voters recently described Israel as an ally. Hardly low. It's the same share of Americans who view Japan as an ally. But the March result on views of Israel is a dozen percentage points below what the Rasmussen poll found last August.

The backdrop is chilling relations. The latest drama began with Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Israel in early March. The trip soured after Israel announced plans to build 1,600 homes in an East Jerusalem settlement. Obama's subsequent meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to improve matters. The British Telegraph reported: "Benjamin Netanyahu was left to stew in a White House meeting room for over an hour after President Barack Obama abruptly walked out of tense talks..."

Less discussed stateside, but heard loudly in Israel, was General David Petraeus mid-March congressional testimony describing Israel as a strategic burden – no top US official has used those terms in recent memory.

This tension, inevitably, raises the question of whether Obama's Jewish support is vulnerable. Jews are an influential pillar of the Democratic base and a key fundraising constituency Republicans have long courted, though to little avail.

Jews approval of Obama, 62 percent in the recent Gerstein-Agne poll, is at least a dozen points above the president's overall approval rating. Obama has fallen 11 points with Jews since March 2009. But the Jewish decline is only a few points above his decline with Hispanics and still roughly half Obama's decline with the general public.

The Gerstein-Agne poll tellingly reveals that only 44 percent of US Jews have a favorable opinion of Netanyahu, whose conservative views are to the right of most American Jews. And when Jews were asked whether they approved of the strong US criticism following the Biden-settlement incident, 55 percent said "yes."

Nevertheless, there are signs of strain between Jews and Obama. Consider the 45 percent who disapproved of the US criticism. Last year, the same poll found that American Jews oppose Israeli settlement expansion by a 60 to 40 percent margin. This means at least a fifth of Jews who voted for Obama maintain policy differences with him on Israel.

Pollster Mark Mehlman, an expert on the Jewish vote, believes Obama faces some "difficulty" with US Jews today. "How much difficulty and how long," he added, "it depends on what happens. And ultimately, President Obama will face a Republican whose views on a range of issues will likely to be anathema to most American Jews."

Obama won 78 percent of Jews in 2008, more than John Kerry before him. In fact, despite a string of stories hinting otherwise, Obama was never really at risk of losing Jews in 2008. No Republican has won Jews since 1920 (and that was due to a third-party candidate). Only blacks are a more loyal bloc of the Democratic Party.

"The segment of the American Jewish community that votes most on Israel and is really hawkish has long voted Republican," said Kenneth Wald, a University of Florida political scientist who specializes in the Jewish vote.

Few American Jews actually vote on the Israeli issue. The economy is the top issue for 55 percent of Jews today. Only 10 percent of American Jews said Israel, according to the Gerstein-Agne poll, ranking Israel the sixth most important issue along with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Most US Jews don't view Israel as a top issue partly because of America's strong support, despite periodic flare-ups, of the Jewish state. Western Europe tells another story. In recent decades, the rise of considerable anti-Israeli sentiment on the European left pushed many Jews rightward. In 2001, to win English Jews back to the liberal Labor Party, a Labor advocate told a reporter that British Prime Minister Tony Blair "has attacked the anti-Israelism that had existed in the Labor Party." But this "anti-Israelism" is far less prevalent stateside.

So Obama attempts to thread the needle: pressure Israel for diplomatic gain without risking significant domestic political loss. Obama is gambling that the ends might justify the means. But he is also unlikely to dramatically escalate those means and risk too much political cost. After all, like so many before him, the ends will likely escape this president as well.