The final vote on Obamacare did not go as vote counters expected. There were no tears on the House floor, no arms being twisted, and no Jay Inslee guarding the door to prevent recalcitrant Democrats from escaping. Instead, the final vote was something of an anticlimax, passing with three votes to spare.

There were probably a number of wavering Democrats who were pressured into declaring their support of the bill early who wish they could do the past week over, knowing that their vote wasn't really needed in the end. These Democrats aren't necessarily the most likely to lose in 2010, they're just the ones who seemed to be wavering and who really would have liked to take a couple of those spare "nay" votes:

5. Earl Pomeroy (ND) - The nine-term Democrat from North Dakota started out his political career as Byron Dorgan's driver, and succeeded Dorgan as North Dakota's lone Congressman. But he never quite managed to achieve the popularity of the state's junior Senator. Pomeroy never garnered more than 60% of the vote until 2006, and was re-elected with less than 55% of the vote in 1994, 1996, 2000 and 2002. Dorgan, by contrast, rarely fell below 65%, even against high-quality opponents.

Pomeroy voted "yea" on the health care bill in 2009, but subsequent polling has shown him in dangerous territory. A February Rasmussen poll showed him trailing GOP nominee Rick Berg 46% to 40%.  Pomeroy represents the most conservative district of any Democrat casting a "yea" vote. While it would have been difficult to walk back the "yea" from November, he probably could have benefitted from finding a problem with the Senate bill, and sticking it with a "no" vote. There is now a very good chance that his career will end this November.

4. John Boccieri (OH) - The first of our "nay-to-yea" flippers. Boccieri was elected to replace retiring Republican Ralph Regula in a district that had not elected a Democrat since the Harry Truman landslide of 1948. This would be a tough district for any Democrat to hold outside of a good Democratic year like 2008, even one as talented as Boccieri.

Boccieri faces a field of relatively unknown GOPers, though two have previously held local office. Charlie Cook had the race as "Lean Democrat" before the health care vote; Rothenberg had it as "Democrat favored." By flipping his vote, Boccieri risks painting himself as a Democrat who will ultimately be there for the leadership when they need him, which is not the best place to be in this district.

3. Suzanne Kosmas (FL) - Kosmas was in trouble before this vote came up - Rothenberg had her at "tossup/tilt Democratic" while Cook had her as a "Lean Democrat." But Kosmas owed her victory in the R+3 district mainly to ethical problems besieging the incumbent Congressman, Tom Feeney.

Kosmas made her fiscal conservatism a mainstay of her campaign. Having voted for the stimulus bill and cap and trade, she will probably not have a record that is perceived as particularly fiscally conservative going into the 2010 midterms. Her first vote against the health care package probably provided a much-needed break from her record of voting with the leadership. Having now switched back, she may find it difficult to re-create that fiscally-conservative perception.

Even to the extent that Kosmas can boost funding for NASA - a critical employer in her district - the GOP should be able to turn that around on Kosmas, claiming that she was bought-and-paid for. It really becomes a no-win situation for her. Kosmas faces twelve potential GOPers, including two or three who would probably be able to pull together the resources to defeat her.

2. Betsy Markey (CO) - Markey will likely face a well-funded challenger in State House Minority Whip Cory Gardner (though two other candidates are opposing Gardner for the nomination). Markey was already listed as a tossup in both the Cook Political Report and in Rothenberg's listings. Markey's overall voting record is somewhere to the left of Kosmas's; like Kosmas, she voted for cap and trade as well as the stimulus. But the R+6 district is a few points to the right of Kosmas's, and she faces a higher quality challenger. After switching her vote, she is quite endangered.

1. Brad Ellsworth (IN) - Probably more than any other member of Congress, Ellsworth would have liked the opportunity to vote "nay." Back in November, Ellsworth was running for re-election in a district that had twice elected him with over 60% of the vote, without serious GOP opposition. Today, however, he is running for the Senate statewide in Indiana. His likely GOP opponents, former Senator Dan Coats or former Congressman John Hostettler, are not unbeatable by any stretch, but they are competent, experienced candidates who will have the resources to hammer Ellsworth over this vote. In his old seat, Ellsworth probably could have won re-election. But given that he is running for a statewide office without the benefits of incumbency, Ellsworth probably would have loved to have one of those spare "nay" votes.