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RUSH LIMBAUGH, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: They are going to come to their senses and realize all a third party will do to guarantee the elections Democrats. The Perot party was the same thing. Let the Democrats do the third party thing. The success here in the future is going to be conservatism dominating, retaking, if you will, the Republican Party.

SARAH PALIN, R-FORMER ALASKA GOVERNOR: I think those on the political radical left would love to see disunity in the tea party. They would love to see fissures especially between the tea party and Republican party. If anything I see a coalescing.

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BAIER: The national tea party convention bringing together all kinds of groups from all over the country is in Nashville right now. They are meeting, talking about an agenda and a way forward.

What about the tea party movement overall and how effective it will be in 2010 elections? We are back with the panel. Mara, we got you a cough drop and some hot tea. What do you think.

LIASSON: Thank you very much.

I think this the tea party movement, the big question when it started is will this be a divisive thing for the Republican Party or will it be a source of energy? I think it's turning out to be a source of energy.

I think that any smart party absorbs energy on its fringe, whether it's the right wing of the Republican Party or the left wing of the Democratic Party. I think the Republicans have been pretty smart so far about doing that. And I think they have been harnessing the tea party activists. I think it's easier when you are the opposition party and you can be united by hatred or fear of the majority Democrats. But I think all these primaries so far don't seem to be weakening Republican candidates. I think that, in the end, if the tea party people have a role to play, they end up nominating some Republican candidates. They are going to be even more energized to work for them. I would say the Democrats have had harder time with Moveon.org and the left wing of their party, who has almost taken the Democratic majority for granted and felt free to really criticize and throw grenades.

BAIER: Fred, Democratic strategist Pat Caddell said he thinks that it's the most powerful movement since the antiwar movement he has seen in his lifetime. That's kind of a bold statement. But do you agree with Russia all these groups can come together under a Republican label.

LIASSON: No, I agree with Mara. She says they already have, and I think that's true, what's happened. And she mentioned particularly the elections. Virginia, New Jersey, Massachusetts, where the tea party were indistinguishable from others who were just normal Republicans.

And the truth is they have the same agenda. I mean, who are the tea party - look, when we say the tea party, it's not a party. I think you said it right, Bret, it's the tea party movement.

And Remember who started this movement? Rick Santelli, a guy on CNBC, when he was complaining about the stimulus. This was a year ago in February of 2009 about the expense of the stimulus and the part of the budget that was just passed and saying we needed tea parties all over the country.

And this is the time when Republicans were generally terrified, and they started having these rallies and things. But they had melded perfectly with the Republican Party because they believe in cutting spending, cutting taxes, reducing the size and scope of government. That's the Republican agenda, too.

BAIER: I don't think he is taking credit for it on CNBC, though.

CARLSON: No. I think he knows that he, at least allowed these feelings to coalesce, feelings that I think have been around since the late Bush years, actually.

I agree with Fred and Mara completely that you have to construct a pretty complicated scenario how the tea parties hurt Republicans. It's very obviously how they hurt Democrats. So obviously it's a net gain for the Republican Party.

But there is latent hostility towards Republican leadership here. Fred said that the tea party and the Republicans have the same aims, less spending, smaller government. But to some extent, you know, there have been Republicans who don't have those aims, and they are definitely in the crosshairs of the tea party people who feel deep resentment toward them as accommodationists.

And I think as the tea party gets stronger they will in effect, anyway, force changes in the leadership level.

BAIER: What about the talk that it will tough to harness all of this effectively by the elections?

CARLSON: You will see what you always see, which is what you are seeing it right now. All these reporters in Nashville will find some crazy person with a sign that says something ludicrous and attempt to brand the whole movement with that sign.

But, in the end, that - and you know, Republicans seem to be wise about how they use the tea party energy. But, in the end, it's still energy that's moving in the same direction they are, and it's hard to see how that doesn't help.

BAIER: Mara?

LIASSON: I really agree. I think that, you know, there is nothing negative that I can see about this. Any time you have an energized, activist group of people who want, you know, your candidates to get.

Now, there are going to be primary fights and conservative Republicans against more moderate Republicans, and in a lot of those cases the conservative might win.

But I don't see anyone so far who is out of the mainstream. Marco Rubio in Florida, Scott Brown in Massachusetts, Bob McDonald, these are candidates who are mainstream candidates who are learning how to appeal to the tea party people without turning off mainstream voters.

BAIER: There is consensus here. What does the White House think about this movement, do you think? They dismissed it out of hand at the beginning.

LIASSON: I think they understand what it is because, you know what, they had one on their hands too that they benefited from. They had an energized, activist movement. I don't know what we want to call them, the kind of Obama-voters that propelled them into office. And now they're seeing it happen on the other side.

BARNES: You know, Republicans aren't always smart, but they have been smart about the tea party movement. They haven't tried to go in and take it over. Here is a movement, it's a grassroots movement. It doesn't have any leaders. You have to sort of integrate with them and join in with them. And they have done a pretty good job in that.

BAIER: Yes. And the numbers seem to be expanding in each one of these races.

BARNES: Yes. They are growing, and a lot of people are the Perot people left over from the 1990s and people who have not been involved in the Republican Party, but they are obviously going to vote that way because they are conservatives. Sometimes they are libertarians as well.

But they are a part of the broader Republican coalition, which needs to be a big one if they are going to win this fall.

LIASSON: But you know what is the most important thing, the fact that their number one issue seems to be fiscal conservatism right now.

Now, I think there is a continuum between the anti-immigration forces that helped bring down George W. Bush's immigration bill that was a detriment to the Republican Party because it made them look intolerant and anti-Hispanic.

But now the issue that seems to be number one for them is something that most mainstream voters, including a lot of independents, completely agree with.

BAIER: Final word.

CARLSON: It is about spending. That is the beginning and the end of this unless it is hijacked by someone with an entirely different agenda. That is an appealing center of the country agenda that could take them really far. Spending, that's it.