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OBAMA: Now it falls on the United States Senate to take the baton and bring this effort to the finish line on behalf of the American people. And I'm absolutely confident that they will.

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM, R-S.C.: The House bill is dead on arrival in the Senate. Just look at how it passed. It passed 220-215.

SEN. JOE LIEBERMAN: If the public option plan is in there, as a matter of conscience, I will not allow this bill to come to a final vote, because I believe that debt can break America.

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BAIER: Well, the House bill did pass this weekend, 220-215, 39 Democrats voted against the bill. What are its prospects in the Senate? We are back with the panel. One Republican voted against it as well - Mara.

LIASSON: I'll tell you one thing, it's not dead on arrival...

BAIER: Voted for it.

LIASSON: Voted for it, Joseph Cao from Louisiana.

I'll tell you one thing that is not dead on arrival is the Stupak amendment. That will stay alive. And basically what it does is it enshrines the Hyde amendment, which prevents federal funding to be spent on abortion, and it was the only way in could pass the House and could get the votes of a certain number of pro-life Democrats.

And Nancy Pelosi in a big burst of pragmatism allowed there to be a vote on the floor on that. It passed, and the Senate will include something similar to it.

Now, public option - I think the comments were correct. The public option in the House bill will not survive the Senate. There will be something different that comes out of the Senate and goes to conference.

I think that every step of the way this bill is getting more and more centrist and think it will continue going in that direction.

BAIER: And if that happens, Steve, as it looks like it is, what happens in the conference committee with liberals who are getting a lot of pushback from the left?

HAYES: Yes. Well, I think you're going to see a lost continued fighting and particularly fight among Democrats. I think that was a big step, obviously, over the weekend, but there are a lot of things that could go wrong between now and whenever this vote is.

You're going into a political environment that is not friendly to the president both in terms of his approval ratings, in terms of the approval ratings of the specific legislation that we're talking about, in terms of the broader economic picture.

You're talking about things that will include high taxes at a time when people don't have money to be paying those taxes, you're talking about things that are likely to prevent small businesses from hiring at a time when unemployment is over 10 percent. The political environment for this right now is tough.

The House bill I think shows to a certain extent what a strong White House push can do. When he wants to put the arm on people, he can put the arm on people that. That will be less effective, I think Senators are less susceptible to that kind of strong-arming than members of the House.

BAIER: Charles, we found out that one Congressman from California, Jim Costa, managed to get $128 million in federal money for a local school for his vote.

KRAUTHAMMER: It seems like a fair price.

Look, in the Senate, I think Lieberman has said he will stand in the way of a public option. I'm not sure that will succeed, because all the Senate has to do is put in a trigger, and if a trigger is inserted, then Lieberman will be against it, but Olympia Snowe will probably support it, and you will get Democrats like Mary Landrieu of Louisiana who have been on the fence of this who will also.

So I think it's possible that a public option will come out of the Senate which could be under a trigger.

But I think the more general issue about the politics of this is I think Pelosi has led her party over a cliff on this. If, as is less likely, it gets stuck in the Senate and a lot of Democrats are way out on a limb the way they were after the big cap and trade vote in the House, if it passes in a form in the Senate, the Democrats are going to have a healthcare proposal which I think will haunt them for a decade.

There is so much pain in here - increase in taxes, increase in premiums, extra bureaucracy, interference in the medical treatment of patients - which people will be able to feel and to see within months and surely within years. This will be a millstone around Democrats for years if it passes.

BAIER: Mara, the administration is still saying even today that the president wants to sign something by the end of the year.

LIASSON: They're trying to put pressure on Harry Reid who originally had said he wanted to bring a bill even to the Senate floor by Thanksgiving, and then he started saying we're not really governed by deadlines.

And now the White House is saying we really need this done. They do not want this to spill into next year.

When you think about it on practical terms, what that would actually mean with the Thanksgiving break and Christmas break and how it would pass the Senate because you need a lot of time for debate there, and also you have to have time for it to conference.

We're talking about a very, very rapid, something - I don't know if Congress has ever moved this fast on something of this size and scale. But that's what the White House wants.

BAIER: It's a tight window.

HAYES: It's a very tight window. And one political factor is Congress is likely to have to authorize a rising of the debt ceiling. At the same time we're talking about all of this, that will be once again thrust onto the public stage.

BAIER: OK, that is it for the panel.