It's been a long time since Republicans savored the day after.

"This certainly was a much needed shot in the arm for Republicans. And should be a dire warning sign for Democrats," said Tony Fabrizio, a veteran GOP strategist.

But Fabrizio's long term view differed. "The smart Republicans are looking at it and saying ok, we're not dead yet," he continued. "But we can't assume that the election of these two Republicans means that the voters think we are right and are embracing Republican principles."

Tuesday's gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey have, in typical fashion, led to some exaggerated public comments. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele declared a "Republican renaissance has begun."

Strategists at the helm of Republican presidential campaigns are not so sure.

Interviews with top GOP strategists paint three conclusions. A Republican revival is possibly underway. But possibly does not mean probably. The off-year races do not level the Republicans' steep road ahead.

Few strategists know the steep road better than Bill McInturff. One year ago, as John McCain's top pollster, McInturff saw his party and candidate reap the whirlwind of dissatisfaction--dissatisfaction with George W. Bush, with Republicans, and, most consequentially, with the economy.

McInturff witnessed a different electorate Tuesday. It was the margins. The Republican candidate won by more than 4 points in blue New Jersey. It was the structure of turnout. In Virginia, 51 percent of the voters were former McCain supporters. Yet last year, Obama won 53 percent of the state. It was that affluent blue suburbs went red. Republicans won Fairfax County for the first time since 1997. Perhaps foremost, the middle moved. In both states, independents sided with Republicans by a 2-to-1 ratio over Democrats.

"In 2008, independent voters were really difficult. They just were not listening. To now have independents demolish the Democrats in two states is a big deal," McInturff said. "Look, if I were a Democrat, I would be very sober now looking toward 2010," McInturff added. But McInturff took a sober view of his party as well.

"Tuesday night did not fix the Republican Party's problems. And Tuesday night does not mean much in the context of 2012," he continued. "But it's still the best night Republicans have had in five years. It's still a lot better day Wednesday for Republicans than it was Monday."

It was indeed a lot better to be a Republican on Wednesday. Off-year elections are poor predictors of future contests, but they can capture the present. The center has been slipping from Democrats since summer. Gallup tracks Obama's approval rating among independents first falling below 50 percent in late July. In late September, Democrats' advantage with independents was the slimmest it had been since 2005. Now, in McInturff's words, "It isn't just data. There are actual consequences."

But several GOP strategists warned those consequences could prove limited. "We can kid ourselves now because Obama has a world of problems," said John Weaver, a moderate Republican strategist. "Everyone's crowing about a comeback. And you take any big wins you can get. But first off, we haven't even admitted that we have any structural problems. I think we have our head in the sand about our problems."

Those GOP problems remain numerous. Democrats party identification advantage is at least 10 points, according to three major October polls. One of those polls, by The Washington Post and ABC News, found that only 34 percent of the public trusts Democrats in Congress to make the "right decisions for the country's future." That's low. But for Republicans it was 19 percent.

The recent Wall Street Journal poll finds that only 42 percent of the country has a positive view of Democrats. It's 25 percent for Republicans.

Then there is the force of incumbency, of holding the White House. The much discussed but unresolved demographic issues. Democrats have won Hispanics since at least 1980. They have won youth and first-time voters since 1992.

And there is the Republican tension between purists and moderates. That complicates any party recovery. It's why, on Tuesday, Beltway eyes were focused on an upstate New York congressional district. The conservative forced out the moderate Republican. The Democrat won. The circumstances of the race were uncommon. The tension is not.

MSNBC "Morning Joe" viewers witnessed that tension Election Day morning. Joe Scarborough asked Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty if he wanted Olympia Snowe, a moderate senator from Maine, in the Republican Party. Pawlenty refused four times to say "yes."

Pawlenty, a likely 2012 candidate, is looking ahead. And he is worried about the ire of his base. Contenders often are.

For now, the story is the 2010 midterms. Democrats are favored to keep their Congressional majority. But they will lose seats. A modern president has only twice, in 1934 and 2002, not lost House seats in his first midterm.

Losses though are not losing. Democrats' advantages remain "formidable," as Fabrizio put it. But conversations with Fabrizio betray an unusual pang of optimism. In recent years, Fabrizio has been remarkably forthright about the GOP decline. The odds may still be long. But Fabrizio believes Republicans "certainly could" win back the House in 2010. Could is not will. But it captures a sanguine outlook unseen among Republicans in years.

"I am optimistic," Fabrizio said, "because it's not often that you can get off the gurney when you are about to die. We are being given that chance."