WOLF BLITZER: Let's get a preview, though, of what all this could mean. Two Congressmen from the two major parties are walking into THE SITUATION ROOM now, the Democratic congressman, Chris van Holland, of Maryland. He is the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Republican Congressman Kevin McCarthy of California, the minority deputy whip.

Congressmen, to both of you, thanks very much for coming in.

If you're politics and you're political news junkies, like I know all of us are, it's a big night and we'll watch it very closely.

How worried are you, Congressman van Holland, that some of these moderate, conservative Blue Dog Democrats who are watching the results tonight, if the Democrats were to lose in New Jersey and Virginia and in Upstate New York, they'll get cold feet and they'll say to Nancy Pelosi, you know, on health care reform, we're out of here?

REP. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D), MARYLAND, CHAIR, DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE: Well, I'm not worried and here's why. The Obama agenda is not on the ballot in New Jersey. It's a governor's race. It has its own set of state issues. The Obama agenda is not on the ballot in Virginia. So these have local flavor to them. There's a lot going on in each state with the governors and the legislature.

So I don't think tonight's results can be seen as somehow a referendum on the Obama agenda. Now, a year from now, when you have midterm Congressional elections, it will be. And that will be a true test.

BLITZER: If the conservative candidate wins in Upstate New York -- and he pushed the official Republican candidate out of that race -- that will presumably embolden some of these others who support the Tea Party Express and -- and other more conservative elements of your party.

How worried are you Congressman, that moderate Republicans and Independents will be turned off by this?

REP. KEVIN MCCARTHY (R), CALIFORNIA: I'm not worried because New York is much different. New York was picked by 11 people in a back room.

What it meant was you didn't have a primary. You didn't have Republicans be able to select who their nominee is.

What you're finding is the momentum and the excitement is with the Republicans. And I disagree with Chris. I like him a lot, but this is a night that is the first report card on the president. And the number one issue you find in these exit polls are about jobs and where the economy is going. And...

BLITZER: So you're pretty upbeat about what -- how the Republicans are going to do tonight?

MCCARTHY: Look, I'll quote what Rahm Emanuel said in 2005. When you have big elections about big things, big things happen. This is the indication here. These are all districts that Obama won a year ago. And it's a fundamental shift in change.

BLITZER: He did win New Jersey. He did win Virginia. And he did carry that Upstate New York district, even though a Republican has carried the seat for about 100 years.

VAN HOLLEN: Right. But what -- what's different is that his agenda is not on the ballots in -- certainly it's not in -- in Virginia or New Jersey. Up in Upstate New York, look, this is a seat Republicans have held for 100 years where we have a chance of getting it. They spent $800,000 on their candidate, who tanked. And the message they sent was no moderates need apply in the Republican Party.

BLITZER: Is that the message you sent?

(CROSSTALK)

VAN HOLLEN: I've got to give Kevin credit, because he's made a lot of statements over the last months as part of his strategy, saying that they need to appeal to a more (INAUDIBLE) people.

BLITZER: You had originally supported Dede -- Dede Scozzafava.

MCCARTHY: She was the only Republican nominee. The difficulty is they didn't...

BLITZER: Some other Republicans were supporting the conservative third party candidate.

MCCARTHY: But they didn't -- they didn't have the primary. If you had a primary, this would all be taken care of, the process.

But the one thing you have to look is, if this wasn't Obama on the ticket, then why was he campaigning in all these places?

Why was he cutting ads? Why was the vice president there twice and just last night?

Because they can't get the turnout. Why did the White House put a full court press. And I applaud you. You went after the Republican candidate. You got attorney general of New York. You got the chief of staff to the White House twisting arms to get her to endorse the other way. But the election still won't turn out with what they want. They selected the nominee to be the secretary -- the under secretary of the Army based upon the idea that they could win this seat.

I mean this is going against the Democrats. This is a...

BLITZER: All right (INAUDIBLE)...

MCCARTHY: ...referendum on...

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: All right, let's let Congressman Van Hollen respond.

VAN HOLLEN: Well, the fact that Obama was in New Jersey campaigning, the fact the vice president was up in New York is an indication that their favorable ratings are high. In fact, when you poll for Obama in New Jersey, his favorable ratings are very high. The same in New York 23, where he -- he carried it by a small amount. He's actually much higher in terms of his popularity ratings today.

The difference is his agenda is not on -- on the table right now. So the fact that he has high favorable ratings indicates very clearly that people are not upset with his agenda. They like his agenda, but they don't see this particular election as a referendum on his election.

MCCARTHY: But if the number one issue happens to be jobs -- and you take the exit polls, 85 percent in Virginia, 90 percent in New Jersey worried about the way the economy is going. The president came out, had a stimulus bill, was more concerned about the date he had it and said, if you pass this bill, unemployment will never be above 8.5 percent. Well, come Friday, it might be 9.9 or maybe 10.

I disagree. This is the biggest indication. And it's not just the election tonight. Look across the country. Look at Oklahoma. Look at the Albuquerque, New Mexico...

BLITZER: Take a look at these polls that we just have -- our Opinion Research Corporation polls.

Are you extremely or very enthusiastic about voting next year, in 2010?

Republicans say -- 46 percent of them say they are; Democrats 39 percent. It looks like the Republicans are more enthusiastic right now than Democrats are.

MCCARTHY: Well, there's no doubt, Wolf, that by next year, all those voters will need to understand that the Obama agenda is on the table, because if the president loses a substantial number in the Congress, it will make it much more difficult for his...

BLITZER: But...

MCCARTHY: So, yes, if that were an indication of what was going to happen two years from now, there would be cause for concern.

BLITZER: One year.

MCCARTHY: One year from now, there would be cause for concern.

BLITZER: You're...

MCCARTHY: But the fact of the matter is, these are -- these are very local issues at stake in this election.

BLITZER: Here -- here's another poll in our CNN/Opinion Research Corporation. We asked, are you more likely to support a candidate who, A, supports Obama -- 54 percent said they would; opposes Obama, 41 percent. He's still very popular, 54 percent job approval numbers right now.

MCCARTHY: But look at those approval ratings a year ago. They probably went 70 percent. Look how fast it's dropped down. This is not just the election tonight. You look across the country, we've seen these indications -- Albuquerque, New Mexico mayor, a Republican won. We took the seat in Tennessee. We took the seat in Oklahoma.

These are the same indications you found before the '94 takeover, the same indications you found in 2005, before the Democrats got the majority. This is an indication of where the country is going.

BLITZER: What did you...

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: I don't know if you heard Dana Bash, our senior Congressional correspondent, report just a little while ago here in THE SITUATION ROOM that Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, is now saying, guess what, there may not be a Senate vote on health care reform this year. It might have to slip into next year.

They don't want to rush it. They want to do it right. That would be a huge setback to the Democrats, including the president, who says this has got to get done this year.

VAN HOLLEN: Well, it would unfortunate. It would be unfortunate if that date slips. We've said our target is to get it done by the end of the year.

But I think there's something very important here in the numbers you talked about, where Obama's numbers continue to be high. And this is not 1994 all over again. The fact of the matter is all the polls show that people's support and confidence in the Republican Party is at an all-time low -- lower than it was last November, when Obama won and Republicans lost. They have gone down in the polls, because they have not been a party of the solutions. They've said no to everything. They're not on the playing field.

And so to say that people's concerns about where we are at a particular point in time translates into (INAUDIBLE) Republicans...

BLITZER: We're out of time. But only 20 percent of those polled say they...

VAN HOLLEN: ...doesn't (INAUDIBLE).

BLITZER: ...they identify with the Republican Party right now.

MCCARTHY: OK. Watch tonight. The majority of people will have voted against the Democrats and the Pelosi plan and the Obama plan. If you look at Virginia, we'll win. You look at New Jersey, regardless of the fact we'll either win or the majority will vote against (INAUDIBLE). You look at New York, that is a grassroots uprising that you can't slow down and talk against.

(CROSSTALK)

MCCARTHY: His own -- his own writing to his members says he's going to lose.

(CROSSTALK)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's bad news for your guys around the country is (INAUDIBLE).

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: He's pretty confident.

All right, guys.

Thanks very much for coming in.

VAN HOLLEN: Thank you.