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OBAMA: Opportunity in every corner of Virginia, that's what matters to Creigh Deeds. That's what he will keep fighting for, for the people of Virginia, if you give him a chance.

LARRY SABATO, POLITICAL ANALYST: I don't think the Obama visit today is going to make the slightest difference. I think it's pretty much perfunctory. The White House has all but written-off Creigh Deeds.

And to be blunt about it, and I never like to call races before the voters do it on election day, but I suspect this will be not just a Republican victory but a Republican landslide.

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BAIER: A big statement from Larry Sabato one week from election day, 2009. We will focus on a couple of races here with the panel.

First, as you heard there, the Virginia race. The latest polls, The Washington Post has the race at 55 percent for Republican Bob McDonnell and 44 percent for Creigh Deeds. Then you take the Real Clear Politics average and it is 50.8 to 40 - that's the average of all the polls on Real Clear Politics.

We're back with the panel, first about Virginia - A.B.?

STODDARD: You can see it in the candidate's face today in the open race in Virginia as the president came to try to give an 11th-hour boost. The White House last Friday in The Washington Post wrote this race off in what can only be called a "pre-mortem" descriptions of why -

BAIER: Anonymous officials quoted...

STODDARD: Exactly. No one went on the record, but they certainly gave their analysis of why Creigh Deeds made a mistake in not taking their recommendations about the kind of campaign that Barack Obama was able to wage in Virginia, turning it Democratic for the first time in a presidential race since 1964, and how he excited northern Virginia, got out the black vote.

Creigh Deeds is from rural Virginia and has failed to make inroads in rural communities in addition to exciting the liberal base in northern Virginia. He has run a poor campaign. It is very unusual for the White House to come out this early and dump him before the race. He is 11 points or more, as you pointed out, behind. You could just see it in his face for a while. Even two weeks ago, Deeds gave an interview describing why the national environment made it so tough for him. And I think they have known for some time it was over.

BIRNBAUM: That leak and others like it, statements, that's damage control from the White House because they know a defeat of Deeds in a state that Obama won notably last year will reflect badly on Obama and the Democrats, because the gubernatorial election in Virginia and also in New Jersey are kind of referendums on Obama. That's the way they will be looked at.

And so Deeds' loss will be Obama's loss and so the White House is trying to distance themselves from Deeds.

BAIER: Let's turn to the other big race, the governor's race in New Jersey. Take a listen to the two candidates there:

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GOV. JON CORZINE, D-N.J.: Well, I think it's very helpful that a popular president believes that I can be a better partner with him than the other candidates in the race.

CHRIS CHRISTIE, REPUBLICAN N.J. GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: It is great to have the president here and the former president here, but in the end, it's me or Jon Corzine, and with his failed record as governor, I think people will turn and vote for me.

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BAIER: Here is one of the latest polls, the Suffolk University poll. This has Jon Corzine up 42-33 percent over Republican Chris Christie. And there you see the independent Chris Daggett is at 7 percent.

Again, there are a number of other polls, the Real Clear Politics average includes a Rasmussen poll that shows Chris Christie ahead, but this is the average, Corzine up just slightly.

What about this race - Charles?

KRAUTHAMMER: I think the wild difference, even in the latest polls, as you say, this one from Suffolk showing a 9-point lead for Corzine, the last two on Real Clear Politics showing that Christie is surging into the lead, is because no one knows what is really happening with Daggett, which is the third party vote.

If he polls high, the presumption is that it pulls away from the Republicans, and the Democrats win. But usually what happens when you have a third party, people will tell a pollster, I support him, but in the booth when it is about electing a governor and not stating a protest, the numbers will shrink.

And since nobody knows how that will end up, this is extremely hard to call.

BAIER: Speaking of third party candidates, A.B., you have New York's 23, the congressional race. And as this stacks up, the Republican Dede Scozzafava looks like she is trailing now Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party. The polls are all over the place, the Democrats up in one. Doug Hoffman is up in a couple lately.

Now you have the Democratic Campaign Committee coming out and saying this race, they believe, is a vote of confidence or would be a vote of confidence for President Obama and somehow a referendum, which is never what the White House says in these off-year elections.

STODDARD: I think they are ahead of themselves on this one, but certainly a Republican has held that territory since something like 1870. And if Bill Owens, the Democrat, pulls this out, you will hear much leaping up and down from the Democrats about why it was a referendum and a big stamp of approval for President Obama.

It might happen for Bill Owens if there is enough vote-splitting between the two Republican or conservative candidates.

But this race is a real trend to watch for next year, because it shows that if the establishment loses, that you can get - like Doug Hoffman has done as an outsider candidate - you can go to national party leaders like Governor Pawlenty and Governor Sarah Palin and Senator Fred Thompson and everyone, get their endorsements and take over.

BIRNBAUM: I think that's right. This could show a real problem for the GOP. Hoffman says he is fighting for the heart and soul of the Republican Party. He may actually be pulling out the heart of the Republican Party.