![]() |
SEND TO A FRIEND | | | ![]() | | | ![]() |
| |
|
Tuesday marks one year since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers brought the American economy, and by extension the world, to near financial collapse.
By year's end the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than in any year since 1931. Americans' lost a fifth of their household wealth, by far the largest annual decline since the Second World War. A record $11 trillion in U.S. personal savings was erased.
Yet the Great Recession has only mildly impacted the American mind.
One year after a recession turned to crisis, Washington has yet to institute any major economic reforms. The financial industry has reportedly returned to some of the same risky behavior that brought the global markets to the brink.
Less noticed is how little the American public has changed as well.
Certainly, Americans are saving more and spending less. They are hedging their professional ambitions. Public service has risen. More Americans are worried about retirement. There is an atmosphere of prudence—a trend unseen in decades but already receding.
It may be that the rapid recovery has mitigated any drastic shift in the public mood. But even this past spring, when the economy had not yet clearly stabilized, Americans' views were remarkably stable.
Consider the question commonly asked after the collapse, what would be Americans' "new normal?" It appears the answer may be closer to the old normal than most imagined.
Below are several examples of how the American public has, and more notably has not, changed one year after the crash of 9-15.
A New American Frugality—For Now?
The recession moved Americans toward thrift.
The amount Americans' owe in credit cards and other consumer debt has fallen for six months straight, with a total decline of $21.6 billion in July. It's the longest sustained debt decline since 1991 and the largest fall since the Federal Reserve began keeping records in 1943.
The Gallup organization finds that every generation of consumer is slashing daily spending by at least a third, compared to 2008.
About three-fourths of U.S. adults also say they have "cut back" on vacation spending, eating out at restaurants and making major purchases, according to a Pew Research Center poll. Yet Americans' changed behavior last December. The behavior remained unchanged as the collapse worsened early in 2009.
The "cutbacks" made were nonetheless signs of a more careful public. By a margin of 50 to 36 percent, the "cutbacks" were "primarily driven" by a fear that finances "might" worsen rather than "have" worsened.
It is, however, premature to say Americans are returning to the frugality of earlier decades.
In 2005, Americans' personal savings rate fell into negative territory, a trend unseen since the Great Depression. The personal savings rate remained around 0 through early 2008.
The Great Recession turned Americans around. The savings rate reached a high of 6 to 7 percent in May, a peak unmatched since 1993.
But the savings rate has again begun to fall. It now stands slightly above 4 percent. From 1959 to the mid 1980s the annual savings rate stood generally above 7 percent, many years reaching double digits.
Changing Job Prospects
Every generation has adjusted its expectations.
Three-quarters of middle-aged Americans believe the economic crisis will make retirement more difficult, according to Pew.
Only a fifth of recent graduates who applied for a job said they found a job, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers. A year earlier, half of new graduates reported finding employment.
Graduate school applications are up, in some schools by 20 percent. There has also been a renewed interest in government jobs; the public sector has expanded even as the private sector contracted.
But with still fewer opportunities overall, more Americans are moving to public service. Peace Corps applications increased 16 percent last year. Teach for America applications soared in November 2008 alone by about 50 percent, compared to the previous year.
These shifts may however prove fleeting, as they mimic normal behavior during large economic downturns.
More unique to this crisis, the reputation of banking has sunk the most of any sector in the past couple years. The public's view of banking, in terms of being more "negative" than "positive," is near the bottom of the 25 business sectors regularly tracked by Gallup.
Americans also have a particularly poor view of the "honesty and ethical standards" of stockbrokers and business executives today. Both jobs are now seen, like congressmen, as being only slightly more ethical than car salesmen, lobbyists and telemarketers.
American Optimism Hit but Endures
A strong majority of Americans believe the worst is behind them.
Since April, Ipsos/McClatchy polling has found that about half of Americans believe the economy has stabilized and a tenth of adults say the economy has "turned the corner." By comparison, slightly more than a third believe the "worst is yet to come." The public believes recovery remains one to two years off, however.
Back in June 2008, a majority of Americans said they were worse off financially than the year before. It was the first time more than half of U.S. adults offered a pessimistic assessment since Gallup first asked the question 32 years earlier; there was no change in June 2009.
Yet, looking ahead, consumer confidence appears already on the mend. Gallup's Well-Being Index, a composite measure of Americans' emotional, physical, and financial health, was higher in September than in any other month since tracking began in February 2008.
Pew found over the summer that more than six in ten Americans' believe their "financial situation" will improve in the next year, the highest level of personal financial optimism since early 2007.
Tension with Government Rises
That many of the giants of Wall Street had to crawl to Uncle Sam for rescue, that billions in tax-dollars played an indispensable role securing the United States from a far more dire collapse, has not changed Americans' view of government.
The historic American tension with government remains strikingly stable, and by some measures has increased.
Gallup has asked every year since 2001: "In general, do you think there is too much, too little or about the right amount of government regulation of business and industry?"
Americans said there is "too much" rather than "too little" regulation, by a margin of 45 to 24 percent, as recently as summer 2009. That marked a higher level of skepticism of government regulation than anytime since 2001.
That is not to say the pubic does not want financial reform. Seven in ten Americans, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll out Monday, said they are not confident that Washington has implemented new safeguards to prevent another market collapse.
Still, the public remains cool on government's role overall. The percentage of Americans who believe "government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses" was 56 percent in early September, a high unseen since the late 1990s.
To be sure, the $787 billion stimulus package explains much of Americans renewed skepticism of government. The bill split the public, as did a similar measure under George W. Bush.
No Rise in Populism
The chattering class was dizzy a half year ago over a purported rise in populism, despite numerous polls illustrating otherwise.
Pew in-depth research this past spring found that more Americans still viewed themselves as "haves" than "have-nots." Most Americans still reject that "success in life is pretty much determined by forces outside our control." Nearly six in ten Americans agree that corporations strike "a fair balance" between profits and the public interest, the same portion as previous studies.
It's not that Americans approve of the status quo. The crisis simply has not greatly aggravated the public's view of the wealth gap.
Gallup regularly asks Americans if they "feel that the distribution of money and wealth in this country today is fair" or if it "should be more evenly distributed."
Six in ten Americans said "more evenly distributed" in late March, actually down from a couple years ago.
| Sponsored Links | Related Articles
|