Forget about the 2012 primary. Gov. Mark Sanford's shocking revelation of an intercontinental extramarital affair this week has the potential to dramatically alter the race to succeed him in 2010, in what has become an all too familiar pattern across the nation in recent years.

Few of the potential and declared candidates have been willing to say much publicly about the Sanford scandal at this point beyond statements of sympathy for his family. But as details continue to emerge about the incumbent's indiscretions, the Republican candidates in particular are nervously plotting their next step.

"I'm not sure how it's going to land," South Carolina Republican Party chair Karen Floyd said. "To speculate on how this is going to impact people when we really don't have all the pieces of information is to me irresponsible."

Sanford has been a polarizing figure even in his own party, and so the simple partisan connection alone is not likely to hurt the Republican nominee. Except, perhaps, for one candidate - state Senator Nikki Haley. When she announced her candidacy last May Sanford had offered strong public encouragement, though not quite an endorsement.

"Nikki Haley would make a terrific and inspiring choice as governor," he said in a statement.

Since Sanford's dramatic announcement on Wednesday, Haley has scrubbed any mention of the governor from her campaign Web site. "My campaign for governor has always been centered on bringing trust and accountability back to government," she said in a statement Wednesday. That means "behaving in a manner that allows people to trust in their public officials and feel good about their government," she added, and, "obviously, the Governor has fallen far short in that regard."

The potentially most significant outcome could be if Sanford decides to resign before his term ends. That would elevate a fellow Republican but political rival, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who would gain advantages of running as an incumbent with less than a year before the primary. A Sanford adviser told the Washington Post this week that resignation was not an option, but other Republicans have indicated the choice may not be his alone to make.

"It's a two way street," Floyd said. "He has to make sure that this is something he's fully committed to and he loves and wants to do. And the second is, the people have to make certain that -- whether they are the legislature or the rank and file Republicans -- they accept his request for forgiveness and ... are willing to trust [him]."

When New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey (D) admitted to a homosexual affair with a staffer in 2004, he decided to resign, but only after a period of three months. The Machiavellian maneuver to delay stepping down avoided the need for a snap special election, making the way for then-Sen. Jon Corzine (D) to assemble a campaign while the acting Governor, Dick Codey, righted the ship.

In New York, David Paterson has struggled in his tenure as governor, brought about by Eliot Spitzer's (D) resignation last April. Polls indicate he's a likely loser in either a primary or general election, though no other Democrat has moved to challenge him yet. Illinois also faces an uncertain gubernatorial contest as Gov. Pat Quinn (D) has gotten off to an equally inauspicious start since replacing Rod Blagojevich.

Other incumbents must deal with scandal themselves of their own making in 2010, including Sen. David Vitter (R-La.), who may now face a strong potential rival in Rep. Charlie Melancon (D). And Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) faces multiple challenges himself, unable to avoid controversy even before he took office.

In South Carolina, the race is in a sense frozen as the state waits for further details of Sanford's travels. Should he remain in office, though, it's unclear whether his affair will have a long-term impact.

"The race next year is going to be more focused on issues than the governor's indiscretion," South Carolina Democratic Party spokesperson Keiana Page said. "What's more pressing right now is that our state has a 12 percent unemployment rate. We need jobs, and we need a governor that's going to be focused on bringing jobs to our state."

Sanford's other legacy is his long fight to reject stimulus funds, a fight that Page said other Republicans were a part of. Meanwhile, those Republicans have been reluctant to engage in any speculation about 2010 at this point, an acknowledgement perhaps that the saga will complicate things no matter who emerges as the nominee.

Still, the fact remains that after an era of Democratic domination Republicans have won five of the last eight gubernatorial elections in the Palmetto State. And in the absence of a strong Democratic challenger at this stage, the odds would seem to favor them again in 2010 regardless of the outcome.

For Sanford, who as the Republican Governors Association chair was tasked with keeping his and other seats in GOP hands, that perhaps is some consolation.