STEPHANOPOULOS: Hello, again, I hope you're enjoying this Memorial Day weekend. We're going to begin today with the president's top military adviser, Admiral Mike Mullen , the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Welcome to THIS WEEK.

MULLEN: Thank you, George.

STEPHANOPOULOS: And we have a lot to cover today, but I want to begin with the debate that really consumed Washington this week. Guantanamo Bay, whether to close it, how to close it, what to do with the detainees. Weigh in from the perspective of the U.S. military.

MULLEN: Well, I've advocating for a long time now that it needs to be closed. President Obama made a decision very early after his Inauguration to do that by next January. And we're all working very hard to meet that deadline.

It focuses on very difficult issues of what you do with the detainees who are there. There are some really bad people there. And so figuring out how we're going to keep them where they need to be, keep them off the battlefield, as well as close Gitmo itself is a real challenge.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Let's talk about keeping them off the battlefield, because a report -- a Pentagon report was released this week -- or leaked this week that said about 14 percent of the Guantanamo detainees have gone back to the battlefield.

I'm trying to puzzle that out. Does that mean it was a mistake to let them go? Or that somehow they were radicalized inside Guantanamo? That something happened to them there?

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MULLEN: Well, there has been an increasing number of those who have returned to the battlefield over the last year or two. There has been hundreds and hundreds who have actually been released both from Guantanamo over time as well as other detention facilities in Iraq and in Afghanistan.

And I think individuals make their best judgment about where they are. And certainly from a military perspective, my advice is to focus heavily on making sure that these individuals don't return.

It has gone up in recent weeks -- or I'm sorry, in recent months, from a single digit number of 5 or 6 percent to the low teens, as far as my understanding of those who have returned.

STEPHANOPOULOS: For those detainees that have to come to the United States eventually, if indeed they do, would the best option be for them to be held in military prisons here in the United States?

MULLEN: We're working hard now to figure out what the options are and what the best one would be. And that really is a decision the president is going to have to make, certainly in meeting this deadline of what we do.

But I just want to reemphasize how -- you know, the challenge associated with that, the need to really keep the bad guys off the battlefield, and to properly detain these individuals as determined in this process.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But that is everybody's big concern, at least it was expressed in the Congress this week that somehow detainees would come to the United States and they would pose a danger. And the FBI director, Robert Mueller, said this week they could pose a risk.

MULLEN: Sure. I listened to all of that and I thought Secretary Gates also captured it well. We have terrorists in jail right now, have had for some time. They're in supermax prisons. And they don't pose a threat. So that's certainly an option. But again, it's not one for me to decide. STEPHANOPOULOS: The Republican leader of the Senate was quoted in The New York Times today saying there's actually a very slim possibility now that the Congress will allow Guantanamo to close.

If he's right, and Guantanamo doesn't close, what would that mean for your military mission?

MULLEN: Well, the concern I've had about Guantanamo in these wars is it has been a symbol, and one which has been a recruiting symbol for those extremists and jihadists who would fight us. So and I think that centers -- you know, that's the heart of the concern for Guantanamo's continued existence, in which I spoke to a few years ago, the need to close it.

STEPHANOPOULOS: You know, former Vice President Cheney took on that debate this week. He was speaking about Guantanamo, but also specifically the enhanced interrogation techniques, and he took on this issue of what he called the recruitment tool mantra. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHENEY: This recruitment tool theory has become something of a mantra lately, including from the president himself. And after a familiar fashion, it excuses the violent and blames America for the evil that others do. It's another version of that same old refrain from the left, we brought it on ourselves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STEPHANOPOULOS: He's taking issue with your judgment.

MULLEN: Well, again, it's my judgment that it has had an impact. And it's time to move on. And the difficulty of doing that is captured in the complexity of the issues. But I think we need to.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me move on to the issue of Iran. You said that Iran is on a path to building nuclear weapons. But the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate concluded with a high degree of confidence that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons programs. So do you believe that intelligence estimate is outdated? Is it no longer accurate?

MULLEN: Well, I believe then and I still believe that Iran's strategic objective is to achieve nuclear weapons, and that that path continues. Their leadership is committed to it. They conducted a missile test this last week that was successful, which continues to improve their missile delivery system and capability. Their intent seems very clear to me, and I'm one who believes if they achieve that objective, that it is incredibly destabilizing for the region. And I think eventually for the world.

STEPHANOPOULOS: You said it's their intent. But do you believe they've restarted their actual nuclear weapons program?

MULLEN: I haven't seen -- or I wouldn't speak to any details about what they are doing with respect to that. Although, I remain concerned that while intelligence estimates focus on what we know, I'm concerned about what Iran might be doing that we don't know.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me also press the question of their strategic intent. "Newsweek" has a cover story out. Let me show you. It says that everything you think you know about Iran is wrong. And one of the points that Fareed Zakaria makes in "Newsweek" is he points out on several occasions over the last several years, Iran's leaders have said they're not interested in having nuclear weapons. They have said that nuclear weapons are immoral. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei actually issued a fatwah saying that these weapons are, indeed, immoral.

And I guess, it's possible they could just be lying. But it does seem odd that a country that the Islamic Republic that bases its legitimacy on being a guardian of Islam that would develop weapons that it considers immoral. That would seem to undercut their own legitimacy.

MULLEN: Well, I think that speaks to the importance of the dialogue that President Obama has stated he wants to initiate and to really wring out, whether that's how the Supreme Leader feels. Certainly from what I've seen, Iran on a path to developing nuclear weapons.

STEPHANOPOULOS: So you don't believe it? That they don't want nuclear weapons.

MULLEN: At this point no.

STEPHANOPOULOS: And the chief of staff to Israel's defense minister, General Michael Herzog, has said that Iran could actually have its first nuclear weapon by the end of 2010 or the beginning of 2011. Do you agree with that?

MULLEN: Well, I think you make certain assumptions about what they can do. Most of us believe that it's one to three years, depending on assumptions about where they are right now. But they are moving closer, clearly, and they continue to do that. And if you believe their strategic intent, as I do, and as certainly my Israeli counterpart does, that's the principle concern.

STEPHANOPOULOS: And you just said that you believe that a nuclear Iran would be calamitous for the region. But last year, Sy Hersh in the "New Yorker" reported that you pushed back very hard against any notion of a military strike during President Bush's administration. And you've spoken publicly about the unintended consequences of a military strike by Israel. So what worries you more? A nuclear Iran or war with Iran?

MULLEN: Well, they both worry me a lot. And I think the unintended consequences of a strike against Iran right now would be incredibly serious. As well as the unintended consequences of their achieving a nuclear weapon.

And so that's why this engagement in dialogue is so important. I think we should do that with all options on the table. As we approach them.

And so that leaves a pretty narrow space in which to achieve a successful dialogue and a successful outcome, which from my perspective means they don't end up with nuclear weapons.

STEPHANOPOULOS: They don't end up with nuclear weapons, but could they have as Japan does a full nuclear fuel cycle program that's fully inspected?

MULLEN: I think that's certainly a possibility and this isn't, at least, from my perspective, from the military perspective, this isn't about them having the ability to produce nuclear power. It's about their desire and their goal to have a nuclear weapon.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Finally, if it comes to this, do you believe it's possible to take out Iran's program, militarily at an acceptable cost?

MULLEN: I won't speculate on what we can and can't do. Again, I put that in the category of my very strong preference is to not be put in a position where we -- where someone -- where Iran is struck in terms of taking out its nuclear capability.

STEPHANOPOULOS: OK. Let me move to Iraq then. U.S. combat forces are scheduled to complete their pullout from Iraqi cities by June 30th. But in recent weeks, we've seen an uptick again in the violence. Does that rise in violence mean that the deadline for pulling American forces out of the cities might not be met?

MULLEN: Oh, I think we're still very much on a track in terms of pulling the forces out of the cities, which is the end of next month. We're on track to decrease the number of troops down to 35,000 to 50,000 in August of 2010.

We've had an uptick in violence, but the overall violence levels are at the 2003 levels. It's still fragile. There's an awful lot of political positioning and political debate that's going on right now, and I think that in great part becomes the essence of how Iraq moves forward.

I'm actually positive about what the Iraqi security forces have done, their army and their police in terms of providing for their own security. They've improved dramatically.

So the path, I think, is still the right path. These ticks, upticks in violence are going to occur. We said that going in, even into -- as we talked about coming down in force. So we just have to, we have to constantly keep an eye on that.

Al Qaida is still active. They're not gone. They're very much...

STEPHANOPOULOS: Al Qaida in Iraq.

MULLEN: Al Qaida in Iraq is very much diminished, but they still have potential to create these kinds of incidents. STEPHANOPOULOS: And the president has said that his overall goal is to have all forces out of Iraq by 2011.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: Under the status of forces agreement with the Iraqi government, I intend to remove all U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of 2011.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STEPHANOPOULOS: That is pretty unequivocal. Yet I was reading the proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute. They had an interview with Tom Ricks, the U.S. military historian, where he says he worries that the president is being wildly over-optimistic. He says we may be only halfway through the war. And he talks about a conversation he had with the commanding general in Iraq, General Ray Odierno, who told him he'd like to see 35,000 troops in Iraq in 2015. Is that what you expect, as well?

MULLEN: Well, certainly the direction from the president and the status of forces agreement that we have with Iraq right now is that we will have all troops out of there by the end of 2011. And that's what we're planning on right now.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But can Iraq be safe with all U.S. troops out of Iraq in 2007 (sic)?

MULLEN: Well, we're on a good path now. And we'll have to see. I mean, the next 12 to 18 months are really critical there in that regard, and I think that answering that question will be much clearer given that timeframe.

The other thing is, we have -- this is a long-term relationship we want with Iraq, and Iraq has stated they want with the United States. And part of that is the possibility that forces could remain there longer. But that's up to the Iraqi people and the Iraqi government to initiate discussions along those lines, and that hasn't happened yet.

STEPHANOPOULOS: It's up to the Iraqi people and the Iraqi government. It's up to the president, of course, as well. But from a military perspective, General Odierno says that he would like to see 35,000 troops in 2015. Is that what you all believe is necessary to secure Iraq from a military perspective?

MULLEN: There's no definitive number right now beyond the end of 2011.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But it's not zero?

MULLEN: Well, I mean, when I'm engaged in other countries around the world, I have very small footprints of military personnel in that engagement. You know, and I would hope long-term, that we would have a great military-to-military relationship with Iraq.

STEPHANOPOULOS: That could include U.S. troops there?

MULLEN: Well, I mean, we've got small numbers of troops throughout the world that conduct training activities, exercises, and those kinds of things. So long-term in Iraq, I would look to be able to do something like that.

STEPHANOPOULOS: We're also increasing our troop presence, of course, in Afghanistan, and that's raised a lot of concern in the Congress recently. Some members of Congress -- leading members of Congress, like Dave Obey, the chairman of the Appropriations Committee, saying he's willing to support funding now, but he's only going to give you a year to show progress.

Here's also what Congressman Jim McGovern of Massachusetts said on the floor.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. JIM MCGOVERN (D), MASSACHUSETTS: I'm not advocating for an immediate withdrawal of our military forces from Afghanistan. All I'm asking for is a plan. If there is no military solution for Afghanistan, then, please, just tell me how we will know when our military contribution to the political solution has concluded.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STEPHANOPOULOS: That's a great question. How will we know when the military contribution has been successful?

MULLEN: Well, I think as we move more forces into Afghanistan this year -- literally, we're doing that as we speak -- that's absolutely necessary to provide to turn the security situation around.

But the military solution is not enough. We've got to have government, governance capability increase dramatically. We've got to have development, economic development. We need more civilians from our government and civilians from other agencies and other countries, as well.

So it's the three-legged stool. It's development, it's rule of law and governance, as well as security. And I think not unlike Iraq, we get security to a point where these other -- these other aspects can be developed much more fully, and we'll know at that point in time how far we've gone and what our next step should be.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Specifically, what can be achieved in the next year?

MULLEN: I think with the troops that we put on the ground there, that over the next 12 to 18 months, we have to dramatically change the security situation and stem the tide. We've had an increasing level of violence in the last three years from in ‘6, ‘7, and ‘8, and I think in ‘9 and ‘10, we have to start to turn that around.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me talk about the issues of gays in the military. The president has told you that he wants to repeal the "don't ask, don't tell" policy so that gays and lesbians can serve openly in the military. And the Pentagon said this week that you personally, along with Secretary Gates, are working to address the challenges associated with implementing the president's commitment.

What exactly are you doing? And what exactly are you worried about?

MULLEN: The president has made his strategic intent very clear. That it's his intent at some point in time to ask Congress to change this law. I think it's important to also know that this is the law, this isn't a policy. And for the rules to change, a law has to be changed.

STEPHANOPOULOS: And there's legislation introduced in the Congress.

MULLEN: And there is. Exactly. And so I've had discussions with the Joint Chiefs about this. I've done certainly a lot of internal, immediate staff discussions about what the issues would be and how we...

STEPHANOPOULOS: What are they? What are the challenges?

MULLEN: Well, it's my job as the senior military adviser to provide best advice, best military advice for the president. And what I owe him is an objective assessment of what these changes would be. What they might impact on. And there could be speculation about what that might be, but my goal would be to achieve an objective assessment of the impact, if any, of this kind of change.

In addition, you know, I would need some time for a force that's under a great deal of stress -- we're in our sixth year of fighting two wars -- to look at if this change occurs, to look at implementing it in a very deliberate, measured way.

And what I also owe the president, and I owe the men and women in uniform, is an implementation plan to achieve this based on a timeline that would be set, obviously, after the law is changed.

STEPHANOPOULOS: One of your predecessors, General John Shalikashvili, who was the chairman of the Joint Chiefs back in the early ‘90s, has said he has second thoughts on this whole issue now. He was against opening up service to the gays and lesbians then. Now he's written, "I now believe that if gay men and lesbians served openly in the United States military, they would not undermine the efficacy of the armed forces. Our military has been stretched thin by our deployments in the Middle East, and we must welcome the service of any American who is willing and able to do the job."

Is he right?

MULLEN: He's certainly entitled to his own personal opinion. And certainly, I have the greatest respect for him.

There are also lots of retired generals and admirals on the other side. STEPHANOPOULOS: What's your opinion?

MULLEN: And what I would hope to do in this, George, again, given the strategic intent of the president, is to avoid a polarizing debate that puts a force that's very significantly under stress in the middle. And to get this, get to this, assuming the law is going to change, and, again, a measured, deliberate way. And that, as the senior military leader, is what I consider my principal responsibility.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Measured, deliberate way. So it sounds like if the Congress calls you up to testify in this, you're going to say now is not the time to repeal?

MULLEN: No, I actually -- I'm going to talk to the process that we have in this country, which is we follow the law, and if the law changes, we'll comply. There's absolutely no question about that.

STEPHANOPOULOS: We have a couple of minutes left. I want to ask you about working with President Obama as the commander in chief. You've been doing it for about four months now, a little bit more than four months. What have you learned about the president as commander in chief? And is he performing as you expected?

MULLEN: It's very rare with any kind of major issue that the president doesn't initially ask, OK, where are we going here? What's our end stake? And then developing a strategic view of how to get there and the major pieces with respect to that. That he is developing policies and policy objectives that the military can support, and the policy and the strategy are very clear.

And I'm not a policy and a strategy guy. I'm -- you know, the military basically supports what the president wants, the decisions that he makes. And he has done that, he has done that in Iraq, he has done that in Afghanistan and in Pakistan. And I find that to be -- to be a method that gives the military the kind of focus it needs for where we're going.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Has he surprised you in any way?

MULLEN: No, not really. I mean, I met him before the -- I think a week or so after he was elected. We had very frank conversations about our positions on various issues, in terms of how we saw things. He was very clear about what he wants to do.

He's a very bright, focused individual. He takes a diversity of opinion, and then he is -- he is as every president is, you know, he knows he has to make decisions. He has made them, he has made hard ones, and I think he will continue to do so.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Finally, as you pointed out, the military has been under tremendous stress for the last eight years. Families have been separated again and again. The suicide rate has risen pretty dramatically in the military.

What do you want on this Memorial Day weekend? What do you want Americans to know about what the military is going through? And what do you want them to reflect on?

MULLEN: Well, we do have a force that's pressed very, very hard. That said, they're the best military I've ever been associated with in my 41 years of wearing the uniform. They have performed incredibly. I would like America to remember those who have served and those that we've lost and their families.

I would like to -- there's tremendous resolve in our military. We're fighting two wars, and the goal to win and succeed in these wars is resonant throughout our military and the capability to do that. And that we -- and that we are resolved as a country to support those who have given so much. Those who have fallen, families of the fallen, and those who have been wounded.

And communities throughout the land reach out to these young people who have gone forward, sacrificed greatly, and have rich lives that they look forward to even though their path on getting there may have changed because they've been wounded, injuries seen and unseen.

But they're great Americans, and we need to take care of them.

STEPHANOPOULOS: And we will remember all of that tomorrow. Admiral Mullen, thank you very much.

MULLEN: Thank you, George.