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There has been no dramatic shift in Americans' view of Wall Street, big business or the role of government despite the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression, according to a wide-ranging Pew Research Center study of American values released Thursday.
"Whether by choice or circumstance, Barack Obama is pursuing a fundamentally different path than his predecessor in terms of economic, domestic and foreign policy. Yet there is no commensurate sea-change in public values," the Pew report concludes.
In Depth: 8 Things Americans Believe in 2009
The 160-page non-partisan study, regularly conducted since 1987, is the most comprehensive look at Americans' outlook since Obama's inauguration.
The study offered new evidence that the Great Recession has not greatly altered Americans' view on the role of government or spurred a dramatic rise in populism.
Americans also remain optimistic despite the hard economic times. True to character, more Americans still believe they are "haves" than "have-nots."
The study also found that the unpopularity of the war in Iraq as well as ongoing military deployments abroad have not caused the U.S. public to turn toward isolationism.
In the political realm, one of the great unknowns in Obama's presidency is whether he will be able to enact an enduring Democratic majority. Obama's presidency has thus far failed to catalyze a large shift leftward on issues like the role of government or moved the public's identification toward the Democratic Party and liberalism.
Republicans scarcely have reason to sigh in relief. The study adds more to the tome of bad news for the Republican Party, recording lows unseen since the years following Watergate. The GOP is dejected and depressed. It sits at rock bottom, considering a range of issues from public image to morale to the GOP's anemic ranks.
However the bulk of those who left the GOP in recent years have not become Democrats, rather independents. In fact, reflecting a long-tracked trend in American politics, the portion of voters indentifying as independent has continued to rise and now matches the highpoint of the modern era.
As the middle of the electorate enlarges, the outlook of the two major parties has only become more polarized. Hyper partisanship is a more potent force today than at any other time since the advent of polling in American politics, even within the context of the rapid rise in partisanship over the past quarter century.
Below is a detailed look at four of the more salient trends in Pew's study of Americans' values.
No Populist Tide From Great Recession
The hallmark of populism is an us-versus-them worldview. That populist outlook has not taken hold over the public. Only 35 percent of Americans believe the country is divided between haves and have-nots, a 9-percentage point decline from two years ago.
More Americans still believe they are part of the haves than have-nots--48 to 36 percent respectively, with no significant change in the last few years. This finding comes in the face of the stock market collapse; 2008 marked the steepest dive in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1931.
Most Americans also still reject that "success in life is pretty much determined by forces outside our control."
The poll was taken with the memory of the worst days of the stock market crash still fresh in the national mind but after the market had somewhat recovered since mid March, roughly to where it was when Obama took office. The poll was conducted March 31 to April 6 and April 14 to the 21; it included 3,013 randomly interviewed Americans and has a 2-point margin of error.
The poll did ping a populist streak in American public opinion, but populism has not surged upward since the market collapse. Fully three fourths of Americans say, "there is too much power concentrated in the hands of a few big companies." More than six in 10 of those polled believe businesses' profits are too large. But Pew finds these opinions are generally unchanged in recent years.
Large swaths of Americans do hold a negative view of Wall Street. When asked if Wall Street "often hurts the economy more than helps it," 49 percent agreed while 37 percent disagreed. (This is the first year Pew has asked the question.) Still, more than six in 10 Americans believe Wall Street makes an "important contribution" to the economy.
Americans are similarly conflicted on regulation. They believe that a free market economy generally needs government regulation but a slim majority, 54 percent, believes regulation often "does more harm than good," including 41 percent of Democrats. That marks only a slight decline since 2007. Support for the role of regulation was mildly stronger in 2002, following the WorldCom and Enron scandals, than today.
One of the more striking findings of the Pew study is the continued relevance of Calvin Coolidge's statement that "the chief business of the American people is business." Coolidge's remark captured the contrast between the roaring twenties and the downward spiral of the thirties.
Even today, 76 percent of Americans say the "strength of this country today is mostly based on the success of American business." This is exactly where the public was in 1987 and generally throughout the 1990s.
There has been a significant, though not large, change between the early Obama presidency and the Clinton era on some issues, which marks the modern contrast between boom times and bust.
Consider this statement, "corporations generally strike a fair balance between making profits and serving the public interest." Today, 58 percent of Americans disagree. That's where the public was in the Bush era, both in the 2007 and the 2003 study.
But in the bull market of 1999, 50 percent of Americans disagreed that companies strike the right balance between profits and public good. That signifies an 8-point shift in a decade, significant but not immense.
A slim majority of Americans, 53 percent, in fact say they are "pretty well satisfied with the way things are going" for them financially. That's the lowest percentage expressing this opinion since 1987, an 8-point drop compared to 2007. But again, considering the hit taken by most Americans stock portfolios, that a majority of Americans still hold this view is perhaps more striking.
Ever-More Hyper Partisan Public
The distance between the two major tribes of American politics has never been greater. Pew has consistently asked 48 questions on Americans values since 1987. The average difference of opinion over the scope of these questions has steadily risen, from 9 points as recently as 1997 to 16 points today.
The rise in hyper partisanship was visible within weeks of Obama taking office, on presidential approval in particular. The partisan gap has raised more eyebrows because of Obama's pledge throughout the 2008 campaign to bridge the very same divide.
The greatest partisan gap on policy views, 39 points, is over the issue of health care. That may prove a harbinger of coming partisan rancor. Obama pledges to push healthcare reform through Congress later this year.
When Americans were asked if they are "concerned about the government becoming too involved in health care," 68 percent of Republicans said yes while only 29 percent of Democrats agreed.
Views of government regulation echo the same trend.
The crisis has only hardened Republicans' view of regulating the free market. Three fourths of Republicans believe government regulation does more harm than good, compared to 57 percent two years ago.
The Great Recession has had the opposite effect on Democrats. Democrats held roughly the same view as Republicans on regulation in 2007. Today, only 41 percent of Democrats believe regulation does more harm than good.
This gap on regulation is even larger when considered through the polemic lens of political debates. Call it the George Will-Paul Krugman effect. Fully 81 percent of conservative Republicans believe regulation does more harm than good while only 29 percent of liberal Democrats agree. In 2007, liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans held the same view.
Views on the role of government have long served as a strong indicator of partisanship. Tellingly, Republicans are thinking like 1994, Pew data finds, the highpoint in Americans small-government ethos. One might say Democrats are thinking like 1964-- the height of the Great Society. Based on Pew's research, Democrats are as positive about the role of government as they have been since the study began.
Other issues that betray the largest partisan divide include the environment, national security and affirmative action.
Republicans in Bad Shape
Democrats hold about a 20-point advantage in public approval, with 40 percent of Americans holding a favorable view of Republicans and 59 percent holding a favorable view of Democrats.
Republicans are not pleased either. In 2004, two-thirds of Republicans believed their party was doing an "excellent or good job" standing up for its traditional positions on the size of government, cutting taxes and supporting traditional social values. Today, only one-quarter of Republicans said the same. By contrast, 61 percent of Democrats give their party high marks, a rise from 43 percent in 2007.
Republicans' ranks are as thin as they have been in the last quarter century, according to Pew's tracking. Democrats have gained a 9-point edge in party identification in the past five years. That's a large shift but not historical. Between 1956 and 1961 Democrats changed the party-ID margin 13 points to their favor and between 1983 and 1985 Republicans changed the margin 17 points to their favor, according to Gallup Poll tracking.
By Pew's measure, Democrats' advantage in partisan affiliation has actually ebbed between December 2008 and April 2009, from 39 to 33 percent. Over the same period Republicans have slipped from 26 to 22 percent.
But as Pew notes, one factor distinguishing today's party-ID gap from past transitions in partisan identification is that unlike Republicans in the mid 1980s or Democratic gains by 1961, the GOP's losses have not translated into Democratic gains. Thirty-five percent of adults indentify as Democrats, similar to last year.
Most former Republicans, Pew found, indentify as independents. This trend is seen in the makeup of the middle. Half of independents view themselves as moderates, but today, conservative independents outnumber liberal independents by a 2:1 ratio.
Republican ranks have thinned but conservative ranks have remained constant, a trend also seen in exit polls last year. Pew finds no significant shift in the past decade on either partisan flank; 37 percent of Americans indentify as conservative compared to 19 percent who identify as liberal.
But as Republican numbers dwindle they have not become a far more conservative bloc. Two-thirds of Republicans describe themselves as conservative, up only 3 points since 2004.
Still, Pew's study offers yet another indicator of the GOP's regional problems. Pew finds that Democrats now outnumber Republicans by an almost 2:1 ratio in the Northeast. As recently as the early 1990s, this northeastern gap hardly existed.
Gradual Rise of Independents
In so partisan an era, is it any surprise that the ranks of independents continue to swell?
Pew finds that 36 percent of Americans describe themselves as independent, matching the 1992 peak when third-party candidate Ross Perot stormed onto the political stage.
The study also found that independents views were often "determinative" of the majority’s opinion, a pattern RealClearPolitics has also tracked regarding the president's public approval rating.
Independents have generally moved rightward on economic issues over the past two years, not a good sign for an ambitious president looking to turn around Ronald Reagan's small government philosophy. This trend is likely in part related to the movement of Republicans to the independent label.
Independents now hold a more conservative view on big business and some roles of government. For example, Pew notes, in the past two decades both independents and Republicans have become more skeptical of expanding the social safety net. They also agree with Republicans in their opposition to affirmative action.
But independents are left leaning on cultural issues like religion and homosexuality. They lean slightly toward Democrats on foreign policy and national security issues as well. Yet even this latter trend is not clear-cut.
For example, a slim majority of Americans believe that the best way to ensure peace is through military strength. Independents precisely mimic the overall trend on peace through strength, with 53 percent agreeing. Independents break with Republicans by 22 points and Democrats by 10 points. But Democrats fall below the 50-percent bar for public support, while independents rise above.
The steadiness of the American outlook may be the most notable trend of the study. One example is the “peace through strength” question. That outlook was 9-points stronger in 2002, following the September 11 attacks, but generally a slim majority have supported an aggressive military posture on the world stage for the past two decades.
The same pattern is found on the United States role in the world. Nine in ten Americans also agree that “it’s best for our country to be active in world affairs,” a view unchanged since 1987.
In Depth: 8 Things Americans Believe in 2009
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