 | ||
 | Obama referendum: no winner, one loser | |
| Court leaves Coleman with little hope | |
| Front pages | |
| And doggone it, I can be a senator | |
| Employee Free Choice Act: Rebuttals | |
| VA Gov Poll: Moran Holds Slight Lead | |
| NH Sen Poll: Hodes +6 | |
| Afghan Mission Creep | |
| More News from Detroit | |
| VF's View |
| Angela Merkel: Voice of Reason | |
| Why Catholics Are Worried About Obama | |
| The Ship is Sinking: Quick, Add Water | |
| Sell the Roads! | |
| GM: You Break It, You Own It |
| Presidents and Their Audacious Promises | |
| The False Hope of Bipartisanship | |
| Cronyism in an Era of Change | |
| Democrats Are the New Ethics Story |
April 01, 2009
In the Trenches: An Interview with Stan Greenberg
RCP
[Editor's Note: Pollster Stan Greenberg has advised powerful and significant leaders all around the globe. In his new book , Dispatches From the War Room: In the Trenches with Five Extraordinary Leaders, Greenberg discusses how he helped Bill Clinton, Tony Blair, Nelson Mandela, Ehud Barak and Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada use polling to move public opinion and win tough campaigns.]
RCP: You've consulted leaders and political parties all around the world. What binds these five men in particular together?
GREENBERG: All five of them came to power during tumultuous times for their countries, all of them were involved in change elections and all five of them possessed a particular kind of drive and purpose. If they didn't have that, they wouldn't have made it as far as they did.
But what I learned from these five campaigns is that driven leaders still believe in things. We have the tendency to view politicians as superficial, especially if they rely on polling. But something real drives these leaders. They were all sincerely interested in winning voters over, and I respected them for that. I started caring about this distinction with Bill Clinton, who often came across as poll driven. But what I aimed to show in this book was that these men were not poll driven, but were instead interested in using polling to guide them in moving the public along with them on dramatic issues. We saw this with Ehud Barak, who used polling as a resource to make tough foreign policy choices.
RCP: In the book, you discuss the challenges of coordinating such dynamic figures and movements, such as Nelson Mandela and the African National Congress (ANC). You talk about utilizing the "tyranny of the message." What is this?
GREENBERG: Every campaign is inherently chaotic. A successful campaign offers the voter clear choices and defines the battle for them. In 2008, Obama ran on change and Clinton ran on experience. For the Republicans, John McCain and Sarah Palin ran as the outsider mavericks. I'm simplifying it, but the point is that you only get heard if you're clear on what it is that you intend to do.
In South Africa, we were dealing with a wide array of exiles, civil rights activists and even guerilla fighters. What you had in the ANC was a protest movement. Bringing all of these factions together was certainly a challenge, but I was blessed with the opportunity to be there at that time in history.
I luckily had good academic standing in South Africa, having already written a book on the region. So in 1999, when the ANC was once again facing elections, I had to tell Thabo Mbeki that the organization wasn't on the right path and needed to get back on message with the voters.
RCP: You and your colleagues were careful to stay out of the election spotlight in South Africa. But in Israel you were thrust right into it. How did you adjust to that?
GREENBERG: The same thing happened to Stephanopoulos and Carville in the Clinton campaign, but no, this is not a normal scenario.
In the case of Israel, there was already a long history of American political consultants taking an active role in the government. When I joined Ehud Barak's campaign, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu already had media consultant Arthur Finkelstein advising him, and he was already a very prominent figure there. It was understood that he was a real player in Israeli politics.
Barak wanted to publicize Carville, Bob Shrum and myself to balance things out. It seemed odd, but we were behind in the polls and it worked. It really did change the tone of the election and gave Barak a kind of legitimacy having us on staff.
RCP: You helped Ehud Barak defeat Netanyahu in 1999 by making the election a choice between Bibi and the "Rabin Way." What then do you make of these two men likely joining forces in the current Israeli government?
GREENBERG: Netanyahu learned from his race against Barak that a right-wing government could undo him, so I think it was important this time around that he try to align with someone who is interested in the peace process in order to give his government some legitimacy.
RCP: Some critics expressed apprehension about having "Clintonites" involved in their elections. Do you believe you were simply exporting "Clintonianism"?
GREENBERG: I think it was more the other way around. These campaigns sought out Bill Clinton because they believed he had come up with something that could work and win. [Blair adviser] Philip Gould had spent time in the United States observing the war room, as did Mandela's staff. When I was hired in South Africa, they pulled out the special election issue of Newsweek on the Clinton campaign and said "we want that."
All of this stemmed from a belief that Clinton demonstrated for center-left candidates around the globe how they could run tough campaigns against conservatives. The motivation and the passion to win came from those leaders, and they came to us.
RCP: So which campaigns will serve as today's blueprint?
GREENBERG: American elections usually have a heavy influence on this. Ronald Reagan had a global impact, as did Clinton. Obama's win in 2008 will likely have reverberations around the world. A new class of consultants and activists will emerge from that election, and it may be viewed as a turning point both here and abroad.
