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April 30, 2009
Specter's Switch All Politics
By Greg BobrinskoyThere is only one reason moderate Republican Arlen Specter is changing party affiliations to become a Democrat. An April poll showed him losing in the Pennsylvania Republican Primary to the strongly conservative Pat Toomey by 21 points. Unlike in Connecticut, Specter wouldn't be able to run as an independent after losing the GOP primary, as Joe Lieberman successfully did in 2006 after Democrats chose a different nominee. Thus, the only way Specter stands a chance for a sixth term is to become a Democrat. Every other reason is secondary.
Specter wrote in his statement today, "Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans."
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These are two different, and mostly unrelated sentences. While Specter and others have and will claim that his switch is due to the party's exceeding move to the right, everyone knows Specter would have stayed a Republican if he could have won the Pennsylvania primary and thus been the heavy favorite in the general election.
Obama won Pennsylvania by 11 points in November and the state voted out conservative Republican Rick Santorum in 2006 -- Senator Bob Casey defeated him by 18 points.
Is Specter someone whose votes should always make conservatives happy? Absolutely not. Is he the only type of Republican (a moderate) who can win in this ever increasing blue state? Absolutely. Does Pat Toomey have any chance of winning in November? No.
According to National Journal's 2008 Vote Ratings, the moderate Specter still had a voting record more conservative than any Democrat, as well as Republicans Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and former Senator Gordon Smith.
When conservatives acted relieved or apathetic to Lincoln Chafee's loss to Sheldon Whitehouse in the 2006 Rhode Island Senate Election, what they were in fact witnessing was the loss of a Republican Senator who voted conservative a majority of the time and was replaced with a hard-line liberal Democrat -- whose voting record places him as the second most liberal in the entire Senate.
The inability of Republicans to recruit and vote for moderate Republicans in moderate-to-blue states and districts is proving devastating for the party. With the election of Michael Steele as Republican National Committee chairman earlier this year, it seemed Republicans were beginning to figure that -- without a single U.S. Representative in New England; decreasing support in the Mountain West and Southwest; and dwindling support among minorities -- they would need to start electing moderately conservative candidates in places that are not conservative hot beds.
Toomey's inevitable GOP primary victory over Specter would have proved that Republicans have not yet received the message. A Specter win over Toomey in the general election next November may do the trick.
More from RCP: 10 Senators Who Switched Parties
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