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| Obama's Wounded Treasury Man | |
| A Free Pass for Geithner | |
| Exit Bush, Shoes Flying | |
| A Government of the Goofs, by the Goofs, for the Goofs |
January 19, 2009
Stumbles Won't Derail The Honeymoon
By Vaughn VerversHe's not even been sworn in yet and already some in the chattering class are beginning to sound alarms that Barack Obama's presidential honeymoon period is in jeopardy of a shorter-than-expected run.
The reasons are numerous, beginning with the economy, which seems to grow worse and more frightening with every hour of every day. Over two months will have passed by the time the new president has had a chance to slide into his chair in the Oval Office and the lame-duck limbo hasn't been helpful in inspiring confidence and there's a lot of work to be done.
After a nearly flawless start to the transition, Obama's emerging cabinet has stumbled several times near the finish line. Bill Richardson, who famously picked Obama over his former patrons during the Democratic primary, withdrew as the nominee for Commerce Secretary after revelations that he was being investigated for involvement in a potential pay-for-play arrangement. Clinton, his choice for Secretary of State has had to fend off questions about her husband's foreign entanglements. And to top it all off, there were the revelations that his pick for Treasury - which includes overseeing the IRS - failed to pay his taxes.
Conservatives have watched with glee at some of these developments but Democrats and those on the left who have long sought a place at the presidential victory table appear a little unnerved as well. Many were horrified by Obama's choice of pastor Rick Warren to deliver the inaugural invocation because of his outspoken opposition to gay marriage. And Democrats in congress have begun trying to stake out their territory when it comes to the economic stimulus package Obama wants on his desk, like, next Tuesday.
Are these developments nuisances? Sure. Are they major blows to an extended honeymoon? Not a chance.
If Ronald Reagan was the original "Teflon president," Obama has to be the 5.0 version of the same. Consider the hurdles he overcame to get where he is, all with nary a dent in his political armor: The combative Clinton campaign (and all its drama); Tony Rezko; the Rev. Jeremiah Wright; a relatively shallow resume; William Ayers and the Republican campaign tactics. That's not even accounting for the issue of race, once thought to be the ultimate hurdle for him.
Yet Obama emerged from it all with the largest presidential victory in the last 20 years (yes, Bill Clinton won more Electoral Votes but did not get a majority of the popular vote). That's given him a real, modern-day version of a political mandate, one that doesn't look to be in danger of fading anytime soon.
The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows why. Sixty-six percent of Americans view Obama positively while just 14% have a negative view of the incoming president. Seventy one percent approve of the way he's handling the transition and while just 43% said they thought his proposed stimulus package as a whole is a good idea (compared to 27% who felt it was a bad one), many of the individual elements are wildly popular. But perhaps most telling is this number: 22% of the poll's respondents said they like Obama personally even though they disagree with his policies.
It's that likeability factor which has helped Obama weather the winds he has encountered in the early going and will serve to bolster him in coming weeks and months. It's that feeling which has kept him politically immune to the Rod Blagojevich/Ronald Burris circus that has been an embarrassment to the rest of his party. It's his state, his governor and his senate seat after all, how else to explain it?
Even the bumps in the road are evening out to a smoother ride. Richardson has left the national stage, Clinton breezed through the Senate Foreign Relations Committee with a near-unanimous vote and Treasury designee Tim Geithner is expected to overcome his troubling tax problem to win confirmation. The confirmation hearings of Attorney General nominee Eric Holder may be generating some partisan sparks but it's child's play to some of the Senate dramas of the past.
Democrats appear more inclined to getting on board with their new president than fighting him. The House Speaker has unveiled an $825 billion version of the stimulus package that isn't an exact version of Obama's proposals but appears within the range. Reeling from two straight election cycles that resulted in the loss of both Congress and the White House, Republicans are doing more soul-searching than posturing these days. In fact, in the NBC poll, 68% of Republicans and independents said the GOP should seek compromise with Obama on the stimulus plan rather than stand their ground and oppose it outright.
Events could yet quickly erode the political capital he's built over the past two years. An international crisis could erupt to cause concern (but such events usually help a president's standing, at least initially). The economy could worsen dramatically and patience wear thin (although there is ample evidence that the nation has internalized a long, hard slog on that front) or the new president could make a colossal error somewhere in his early months (something he has shown no propensity toward).
There are many other unknowns, but at a time when faith in institutions - Congress, the media and the financial industry to name just a few - are at all-time lows, Americans look to be once again putting their trust in the man at the top of the political heap. And that should help ensure a long and potentially productive honeymoon for Barack Obama despite the occasional stumble.
