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Obama Faces World of Conflict

At 12:00 noon on January 20, the United States will have experienced sixteen years of contentious, divisive, and mediocre government. This bleak period has been evenly split, to the day and hour, between Democrats led by President Bill Clinton and Republicans led by President George W. Bush.

That dismal record will test President Barack Obama, who takes office that day, as much or more than the economic recession, the issues of immigration, energy, education, and health care, the bog of Iraq and Afghanistan, the eruption of conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, and a litany of difficulties that almost any schoolboy could recite.

Moreover, the new president's task will be hard because only 33 percent of the eligible voters in America cast their ballots for him. The rest either didn't vote, or voted for Senator John McCain of Arizona, the Republican candidate, or voted for Ralph Nader or Bob Barr or another third party candidate. Mr. Obama cannot claim a mandate to ram through his proposals.

Nevertheless, all Americans, even those who didn't vote for him, should wish President Obama well and hope that his presidency is successful, if for no other reason that America cannot afford another four or eight years of discordant, second-rate government.

The same wish should be true for allies and friends of the US, particularly in Asia. Despite America's troubles, the constructive application of American power is still vital to the well-being of nations from Britain to South Africa to Japan. Further, potential adversaries such as China should hope that President Obama can steer a course that serves America's interests as well as preclude an armed conflict with them.

It won't be easy. Witness the apparently corrupt schemes of Governor Rod Blagojevich of Illinois to fill the Senate seat being vacated by Mr. Obama. The governor has been charged with conspiracy and bribery and driven the already turbulent politics of Chicago to a new low as he has defied widespread calls for his resignation, including that from Mr. Obama.

Or the bitter parting shot from Bob Herbert, a liberal columnist for The New York Times who wrote this week: "I don't think he [President Bush] should be allowed to slip quietly out of town. There should be a great hue and cry - a loud, collective angry howl, demonstrations with signs and bullhorns and fiery speeches - over the damage he's done to this country."

In sharp contrast, there are signs that civility might return to American public life. From all reports, President Bush has gone out of his way to have officials of his administration brief those of new administration and to help them get started. For his part, Mr. Obama has been careful not to presume on Mr. Bush's responsibilities and prerogatives as president. More than once he has said America can have only one president at a time.

Similarly, Bill Kristol, a conservative with unquestioned credentials, said in another column in The New York Times: "I look forward to Obama's inauguration with a surprising degree of hope and good cheer." Noting that Mr. Obama will be sworn in with President Abraham Lincoln's Bible, Kristol said: "Obama could do a lot worse than study Lincoln and learn from him."

In Asia, the incoming administration will be confronted immediately with a looming crisis between India and Pakistan caused by the attack in late November on Mumbai, the financial center of India, presumably by Pakistani terrorists. "If there's another Mumbai, India will have to respond," said an informed US officer. Both sides have moved troops to the border between them.

A conflict between India and Pakistan would jeopardize US military operations in Afghanistan. A main supply route from the Pakistani port of Karachi through Peshawar in northwest Pakistan thence through the mountains via the Khyber Pass into Afghanistan has already been cut either by Taliban terrorists or Pakistani troops pursuing the terrorists.

In a larger context, several US administrations have tried to treat India and Pakistan in an even-handed manner but have not acquired enough influence to restrain either. A complication is the posture of China, long an ally of Pakistan and a rival with India for prominence in Asia. Moreover, both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons and a nuclear exchange would have unpredictable consequences.

So far, Mr. Obama has said little about South Asia. On his web site, www.change.gov, Mr. Obama does not mention India and says about Pakistan only that it will be held "accountable for security in the border region with Afghanistan."

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Related Topics: afghanistan | bush | clinton | foreign policy | india | israel | obama | pakistan | palestine |

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