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December 17, 2008
As Bush Prepares to Exit and Obama Prepares to Take the Reins, Keep Your Eye on Russia
By Douglas SchoenAs President-elect Barack Obama prepares to take as duties as commander in chief, it seems all too clear that the international "test" Joe Biden warned of during the election will come from Russia.
Judging by the evidence, a clash between Russia and the United States is almost inevitable. How the incoming administration responds to Russia is crucial.
The most appropriate approach to use with Russia is what Secretary of State designate Hillary Clinton has referred to as "coercive diplomacy" -- a phrase she has used in the past when speaking about making Iraq policy. To Clinton, coercive diplomacy means "you try to figure out how to move bad actors in a direction that you'd prefer, in order to avoid more dire consequences." This is precisely the approach that both administrations need to take with Russia.
A review of the evidence of the Russian threat highlights the need for coercive diplomacy:
First, Russian President Medvedev arrived in Caracas over Thanksgiving weekend to sign a nuclear deal with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Although we do not know the specifics of the deal, we do know that there is an agreement of nuclear cooperation between the two states going forward. Furthermore, the meeting took place aboard the nuclear cruiser Peter the Great, Russia's largest battleship.
Even worse, the Peter the Great sailed into the Venezuelan port prior to Medvedev's visit, along with other military ships, all of which stayed behind to participate in joint military exercises with Venezuela beginning the following week.
After his trip to Venezuela, Medvedev traveled to Havana, Cuba to meet with Raul Castro, Cuba's de facto head of state, on November 28th. Since the close of the Cold War, Russian/Cuban relations have been strained, but Medvedev and Castro met in the spirit of repairing those relations and both sides declared the visit a success. A sign of the success of the visit is the fact that three Russian warships will sail into Cuba this Friday, marking the first time Cuba will host Russian military ships since the Cold War. The Admiral Chabanenko warship, along with two support ships, visited Nicaragua this past weekend and left Monday to make the trip to Cuba. Clearly, the restoration of harmonious ties between Russia and Cuba should do mor than raise a few eyebrows now that Russian battleships are enroute to Cuba.
President-elect Obama must take the Russian threat seriously as president and use Clinton's concept of coercive diplomacy to nudge Russia on key issues and avoid an international conflict. Coercive diplomacy should be used to make it clear to the Russian that we are willing to consider additional arms control agreements with them and even to facilitate new conversations about economic cooperation and security agreements in Europe. Russia would benefit greatly from American cooperation on these fronts, especially given the plummeting price of oil. -The United States should communicate its willingness to help, but only on the condition that the Russians cease and desist in holding joint military exercises with Venezuela and Cuba, selling them arms, and sharing nuclear capabilities. Furthermore, it should be clearly stated that failure to do so not only risks eliminating the possibility of U. S. support, but will also provoke additional confrontation with the West.
With Russia conducting naval exercises in our hemisphere for the first time since the Cold War, the Obama administration will truly face a major international test when it takes over the White House. It is imperative that we to reach out to Russia to find common ground and develop a concerted policy built on the Clinton doctrine of coercive diplomacy. If we fail to do so, the Russian threat is clear and Joe Biden's worse fears will be realized.
