 | ||
 | Reform Lite: Obama goes soft on pork | |
| Obama: Time to rein in earmarks | |
| Omnibus signing statement | |
| Dems announce earmark reforms | |
| Gays in the military: Is it time? | |
| How Low Can Roland Go? | |
| Robert Gibbbzzzz.... | |
| DE Sen: Castle Leads Biden | |
| Poll: Delaware Loves Its Dems | |
| A Digital 9/11 |
| Obama's Remarks on Earmark Reform | |
| The Future of Russia Goes on Trial | |
| Agree with Obama or You're an 'Ideologue' | |
| Behind the Cell Curve | |
| Obama's Gamble |
November 14, 2008
Senate Dems Look Ahead to 2010
By Reid WilsonEven before Democrats know how many seats they will actually control in the Senate this year, with the possibility of a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority on the horizon, the party is already looking ahead to 2010. Improbably, Democrats may buck historical precedent by building an even stronger majority in two years.
In twenty four months, at least thirty-five Senate seats will be decided, including those currently held by President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden. And while first midterm elections are historically tough on any administration, Democrats appear to have more initial targets than their Republican foes.
But the task won't be as easy as it was for Democrats this year. Though several Republicans gave up solid holds on what proved to be emerging Democratic territory, 2010 may not feature the same number of open seats ripe for the picking. Only one incumbent senator, Kansas' Sam Brownback, has said he will not run again, and the state is hardly fertile territory for Democrats.
A number of other Republicans, including Iowa's Chuck Grassley, Utah's Bob Bennett, Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter, Kentucky's Jim Bunning and Richard Shelby of Alabama, will be more than 75 years old, though all have made initial moves toward running again. Hawaii Senator Daniel Inouye is the only Democrat up in two years who is over 75.
A rush to the retirement exit notwithstanding, Democrats will have to pick and choose their spots. Though nine Republicans won their seats in 2004 with fewer than 55% of the vote, some, like Oklahoma's Tom Coburn, South Dakota's John Thune and Alaska's Lisa Murkowski represent such deeply red states that they are unlikely to get a strong Democratic challenger. All three faced top-tier opponents in 2004, and Democrats would love to challenge each -- especially Thune, who unseated Tom Daschle in a particularly bitter race -- but the states simply don't feature a terribly strong roster of Democrats ready to run.
By contrast, though, just one of the fourteen Democrats who will face re-election in 2010 won with less than 55% of the vote. That came when Senator Ken Salazar of Colorado captured a GOP-held open seat, and he's worked to improve his political standing in a state where Democrats have had almost unparalleled success over the past half-decade.
Democrats looking to pick off seats will turn their attention to Republicans like Mel Martinez of Florida, who strategists on both sides say is especially vulnerable in two years. Bunning, who narrowly escaped a major upset four years ago, already has top Democratic officeholders across Kentucky eying him as a potential target.
Richard Burr of North Carolina will make a point to be visible in his home state as he faces re-election just two years after fellow Republican Elizabeth Dole was stunned by a second-tier candidate. Top Tar Heel Democrats may not give Burr the pass they assumed Dole would get. And Louisiana's David Vitter may face voter backlash against personal scandals that have plagued him in the past year and a half, though recent polls give the first-term Republican a strong approval rating.
But Democrats' top two targets could, as in 2008, come in states that are trending their way. Pennsylvania's Specter is bracing for an expensive race, which could pit him against MSNBC host Chris Matthews, who has strongly hinted of late that he will make a bid to represent his home state in the Senate. And Arizona's John McCain, six years after facing only nominal opposition and two years after his failed presidential bid, could square off against popular Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano, who led McCain in a recent poll.
A top adviser to McCain, reached just after the presidential election ended, said he did not know if the 73-year old would run for re-election. Requests for comment from the campaign itself went unanswered. But if he does run, McCain will have to quickly rebuild his war chest; reports filed with the Federal Election commission through mid-October show McCain with just $14,000 in his Senate campaign account.
Beyond Salazar, who many do not believe is in real electoral jeopardy, Republicans have one top takeover target in their sights. Though he won re-election by a wide 61%-35% margin in 2004, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has watched his approval ratings in Nevada plummet, giving the GOP reason to hope they can do to Reid what Thune did to Daschle. But with Rep. Jon Porter's loss this year, and with Governor Jim Gibbons mired in personal scandals of his own and seen as an underdog for re-election next cycle, the Republican bench in the Silver State is weak and getting weaker. Top Republican challengers may have to be talked out of running for governor, whether or not Gibbons runs again, and instead against the well-funded Reid.
Republicans can't expect much help from John Ensign, the state's GOP senator and outgoing chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. After a close contest in 1998 in which Reid bested Ensign by just 401 votes, the two have built a rapport and maintain what appears to be an informal non-aggression pact with each other.
Over the last two cycles, Democrats have benefited from wave elections fueled by voter backlash against the Bush Administration. In two years, even if Barack Obama proves a hugely popular president, the party will not have the same wind at their backs. In 1982, when Ronald Reagan retained high approval ratings, Republicans managed only to hold their 54-seat majority instead of expanding into Democratic territory.
That means Democrats won't be able to count on an automatic pickup of seats. Instead, the party will have to build a grassroots organizing force to persuade and turn out voters. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chief Chuck Schumer invested unprecedented amounts in just such an effort this year, contributing to wins in North Carolina, Oregon and other states. Given the committee's prodigious fundraising efforts this year, they are likely once again to have the resources necessary to repeat their efforts in two years.
Democrats face no easy task in expanding their Senate majority in two years. But with the party hovering so close to 60 seats necessary to cut off filibusters already -- a result that won't be known until recounts are finished in Alaska and Minnesota and a runoff is completed in Georgia -- they will spare no expense in trying. For the third cycle in a row, Democrats will find themselves on offense more than defense.
