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| Obama's Gamble |
October 20, 2008
Top Senate Races Break To Dems
By Reid WilsonAs is the case in House races across the country, Republicans are watching their hopes of preventing a cascade of Senate seats tumbling toward Democrats collapse.
The torrent of bad economic news put Republicans everywhere on their heels as voters look to the Democratic Party to solve the ongoing crises. The GOP's only hope may be that enough voters give President Bush and his party credit for this week's stock market climb. Even then, the GOP's best chance at picking up a seat, in Louisiana, looks remote.
While he doesn't merit inclusion on the top ten list just yet, Democrats also have a chance to make Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss' life uncomfortable in the next few weeks, as polls show his race tightening. And Democrats see positive movement against Senator Susan Collins in Maine, though her lead over Rep. Tom Allen remains relatively strong.
The top ten Senate races, ranked in order of likelihood of flipping:
10. Kentucky (R - McConnell) -- It's never good when a campaign's internal poll shows an incumbent under 50, and it's even worse when the poll's trendline shows the race closing. Republican Mitch McConnell is ahead, but his leadership on the highly unpopular bailout legislation has cost him. Fellow Senator Jim Bunning's vocal and vehement opposition to the bill isn't helping McConnell in his race against Democrat Bruce Lunsford. RCP Average: McConnell +6.5.
9. Mississippi (R - Wicker) -- Democrats have caught every break possible in this race. Because it's a special election, Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat Ronnie Musgrove won't have party labels next to their names. And Democrats won a court fight to put the race atop the ballot, limiting the number of pro-Barack Obama drop-offs. Wicker has a narrow lead, but bad economic news could help Musgrove, who served as governor during much better economic times. RCP Average: Wicker +4.
8. Minnesota (R - Coleman) -- Unilaterally taking down his negative ads served a political purpose beyond just a day of good press for Republican Norm Coleman. The ads had started backfiring, costing Coleman support, and now he finds himself in a dogfight with Democrat Al Franken. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley is good for Coleman in that some anti-GOP votes won't go to Franken, but he helps Democrats by denying anti-Franken votes, of which there will be plenty, to Coleman. RCP Average: Franken +2.2.
7. Alaska (R - Stevens) -- Justice Department prosecutors have succeeded in making the judge in Ted Stevens' corruption trial furious, and it's clarified one truth about Stevens' bid for another term: If he's acquitted, Stevens is the favorite. If he's convicted, Democrat Mark Begich will be a U.S. Senator. This race could either shoot up the list or drop off completely in the next two weeks. RCP Average: Begich +3.2.
6. North Carolina (R - Dole) -- Republican strategists are becoming more open in their frustration with Republican Elizabeth Dole's lackluster campaign. Attacks on Democrat Kay Hagan for being a big-government liberal haven't stuck, while shots at Dole accusing her of being ineffective and absent from the state have taken their toll. Few would have put this race in their list before this cycle, but most now agree that Dole is the underdog. RCP Average: Hagan +3.3.
5. Oregon (R - Smith) -- One might not expect Democrats Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Barack Obama and Ron Wyden to make cameos in positive campaign ads for a Republican, but that's just what Gordon Smith has done. Still, it may not be enough in a state that continues to trend left. There are a lot of Oregon Democrats kicking themselves for taking a pass on the race and leaving an easy target for Jeff Merkley, who will have to grow into the seat. RCP Average: Merkley +3.7.
4. New Hampshire (R - Sununu) -- For a while there, Senator John Sununu looked like he might make a Lazarus-like comeback. But Democrat Jeanne Shaheen has run a virtually flawless campaign, and her lead has once again stabilized. RCP Average: Shaheen +5.9.
3. Colorado (Open R - Allard retiring) -- Last month, some polls showed a close race, but now Rep. Mark Udall has pulled into a clear and formidable lead. Millions of dollars spent trying to label him a "Boulder liberal" have not helped Republican ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer catch up. RCP Average: Udall +9.3.
2. New Mexico (Open R - Domenici retiring) -- Rep. Tom Udall cleared the primary field and never looked back after conservative Rep. Steve Pearce won the GOP primary. The National Republican Senatorial Committee pulled out months ago. RCP Average: Udall +17.6.
1. Virginia (Open R - Warner retiring) -- Republican Jim Gilmore faced a Herculean task in defeating Democrat Mark Warner. Three weeks out, it's clear the feat was too much. RCP Average: Warner +28.2.
More Election Coverage: Healthcare Common Focus for Congressional Races
