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October 09, 2008

Dem Chances Soar On Economic Woes

By Reid Wilson and Kyle Trygstad

The recent economic crisis has become a political crisis for Republicans. New polls and the general landscape are making this election look remarkably similar to 2006, and Democratic spending has only broadened the playing field.

Our latest House race rankings:

1. NY 13 (Open R, Fossella retiring) - Despite flirting with returning, Vito Fossella has all but given up his seat to Democrats.

2. AZ 01 (Open R, Renzi retiring) - Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick is well ahead of Republican Sydney Hay, and while the DCCC is spending here, Hay's cries for NRCC help have gone unanswered.

3. NY 25 (Open R, Walsh retiring) - After coming close in 2006, Democrat Dan Maffei is measuring the drapes while facing an underfunded GOP challenger in a Democratic-leaning district.

4. VA 11 (Open R, Davis retiring) - The DCCC is spending a lot on Gerry Connolly, and Barack Obama will win the district by a big margin.

5. AK AL (Young - R) - Ted Stevens gets a reprieve if he is acquitted. Don Young is hugely unpopular even without being indicted.

6. TX 22 (Lampson - D) - The DCCC hasn't put money into the seat since early September, indicating they may see the race as Republican Pete Olson's to lose.

7. OH 16 (open R, Regula retiring) - A recent independent poll showed Democrat John Boccieri leading by a wide margin, and this is a seat where money is going to matter.

8. PA 11 (Kanjorski - D) - Polls just keep getting worse for Rep. Paul Kanjorski, and his vote for the bailout bill might be the final nail in the coffin.

9. OH 15 (Open R, Pryce retiring) - Republican attacks on Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy's ties to a socialist paper seem stale, but Republican Steve Stivers still has a chance to keep the seat.

10. KS 02 (Boyda - D) - Republican Lynn Jenkins can appeal to moderates who handed Rep. Nancy Boyda the seat in 2006, and she's winning key endorsements ex-Rep. Jim Ryun might not have.

11. NV 03 (Porter - R) - Rep. Jon Porter took a gutsy vote on the bailout which he might be able to explain away, but huge Democratic registration gains may make a win virtually impossible.

12. IL 11 (Open R, Weller retiring) - Republican Marty Ozinga is keeping the heat on Democrat Debbie Halvorson, but Obama's coattails could pull Halvorson over the line.

13. NM 01 (Open R, Wilson retiring) - Republican Darren White is a good candidate, but polls show him trailing, and the district may have trended too far towards Democrats to prevent Martin Heinrich from winning.

14. NJ 03 (Open R, Saxton retiring) - Recent revelations about Democrat John Adler's controversial pseudo-earmarks could get traction, though his financial advantage over Republican Chris Myers is probably big enough to capture the seat.

15. WI 08 (Kagen - D) - Possibly to keep his mouth from getting him in any more trouble, Rep. Steve Kagen has skipped more than a dozen debates, and the NRCC is actually spending money to help Republican John Gard here.

16. CO 04 (Musgrave - R) - Outside groups have already crossed the million-dollar mark against Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, and she's attacking Democrat Betsy Markey, never a good sign for an incumbent.

17. FL 24 (Feeney - R) - Starting one's re-election campaign with an apology ad is never a good sign, and Democrats had already planned to pounce on Rep. Tom Feeney for his ties to Jack Abramoff.

18. MI 07 (Walberg - R) - In what promises to be the most expensive race in Michigan, ex-GOP Rep. Joe Schwarz backing Democrat Mark Schauer could pull enough moderates to knock off Rep. Tim Walberg.

19. NH 01 (Shea-Porter - D) - Ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley has led several recent polls, and without straight-ticket voting, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter can't count on the same luck that won her the 2006 race.

20. NC 08 (Hayes - R) - Rep. Robin Hayes released an internal poll that showed his lead narrowing from ten to three points, rebutting a Democratic poll that showed Larry Kissell up big. They both agree, the race is breaking toward Kissell.

21. NJ 07 (Open R, Ferguson retiring) - If Republicans have a chance to save a New Jersey seat, Leonard Lance's stature and political base could be enough to do it, though Democrat Linda Stender still has a great chance.

22. PA 10 (Carney - D) - The northeast Pennsylvania district will vote for John McCain, but no one can call Rep. Chris Carney a liberal, and a splintered Republican base could still hurt Chris Hackett.

23. LA 06 (Cazayoux - D) - Independent candidate Michael Jackson has raised virtually no money, and African American voters are largely behind Rep. Don Cazayoux, hurting Republican Bill Cassidy's chances.

24. PA 03 (English - R) - Democrats are suddenly very excited about Kathy Dahlkemper's chances and Republicans are spending on defensive ads, making this once-off the radar race newly interesting.

25. AL 02 (Open R, Everett retiring) - If any Democrat can steal this seat, it's Bobby Bright, who talks about his Christian conservatism. Polls show both Bright and Republican Jay Love with leads.

26. NM 02 (Open R, Pearce retiring) - Democrat Harry Teague is proving an impressive candidate in a rapidly-growing district, while Republican Ed Tinsley is getting tagged with the lobbyist label.

27. FL 16 (Mahoney - D) - We haven't heard Republicans touting Tom Rooney lately, but in a GOP-leaning district he still has a good shot at taking over for Rep. Tim Mahoney.

28. WA 08 (Reichert - R) - A generic Democrat would win this seat, but the district hasn't been willing to give Rep. Dave Reichert the boot just yet. The war is no longer the top issue on voters' minds, so Democrat Darcy Burner will have to more effectively make the case to fire Reichert.

29. AL 05 (Open D, Cramer retiring) - Democrat Parker Griffith is taking heat over his career as a doctor, giving Republican Wayne Parker a chance to take the conservative Democratic seat.

30. FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart - R) - Polls show Cuban voters are the only thing standing in the way of Democrat Joe Garcia beating Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, while Hispanics and other voters break heavily for Garcia.

31. IL 10 (Kirk - R) - Kirk's vote for the bailout legislation was smart politically, but his entire job until Election Day will be to overcome what are expected to be big Obama coattails.

32. CT 04 (Shays - R) - If Kirk loses, expect Shays to go down too. Democrat Jim Himes turned in a monster fundraising quarter, and Democrats think this is the year they can oust Shays, thanks to the economic crisis.

33. CA 04 (Open R, Doolittle retiring) - Republican Tom McClintock is taking heat for not living in the district, and attacks on Democrat Charlie Brown have fallen largely flat. Still, it's a very Republican district.

34. MI 09 (Knollenberg - R) - A new independent poll shows Democrat Gary Peters running ahead of Rep. Joe Knollenberg, and John McCain's decision to pull out of Michigan will only give Democrats a bigger turnout and money advantage.

35. MN 03 (Open R, Ramstad retiring) - We weren't confident in Democrat Ashwin Madia's chances against Republican Erik Paulsen, but if Obama pulls away in the Minneapolis suburbs, Paulsen could be a casualty of the bad climate.

36. OH 02 (Schmidt - R) - Independent candidate David Krikorian could be one of the highest third-party vote-getters in the nation, giving Democrat Vic Wulsin a chance to knock off Jean Schmidt.

37. ID 01 (Sali - R) - Rep. Bill Sali has had a rough first term, and he's proven a weak fundraiser as the DCCC spends heavily on behalf of Democrat Walt Minnick, though in a very red district.

38. KY 03 (Yarmuth - D) - This under-the-radar race still features one of the strongest candidates Republicans have fielded around the country. But Ann Northup lost in 2006, and 2008 might just bring bigger Democratic turnout in Louisville.

39. FL 21 (L. Diaz-Balart - R) - Democrat Raul Martinez has pulled to within five points or so of Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, and if Florida breaks for Obama, the Republican could find himself the victim of a superior up-ticket GOTV effort.

40. LA 04 (Open R, McCrery retiring) - Democrats suffered a blow when their candidate, Paul Carmouche, failed to avoid a runoff. If Republicans can play nice in their own runoff, they can save the seat.

41. NY 29 (Kuhl - R) - Rep. Randy Kuhl's vote in favor of the second bailout bill might hurt in economically-depressed upstate New York, but he still represents what is ordinarily a safe Republican district. Then again, nothing's ordinary this year.

42. AZ 03 (Shadegg - R) - The DCCC just dropped a load of cash into ads slamming Rep. John Shadegg, giving Democrat Bob Lord an outside shot at the seat. If John McCain has any Copper State Coattails, they'll show up in Shadegg's district.

43. MS 01 (Childers - D) - The original knock on Republican Greg Davis, that he's from the wrong part of the district, hasn't changed, and Rep. Travis Childers' internal polls show him way ahead.

44. GA 08 (Marshall - D) - Rep. Jim Marshall said he was willing to lose his seat over his bailout bill vote, and he well might, but he remains the favorite over Republican Rick Goddard.

45. NY 26 (Open R, Reynolds retiring) - Republicans caught a break when Democrats virtually imploded in their primary, and the only public poll in the seat shows Republican Chris Lee running well ahead of Democrat Alice Kryzan.

46. OH 01 (Chabot - R) - Increased African American turnout could give Democrat Steve Driehaus a boost over Rep. Steve Chabot, but Chabot is a survivor and hasn't committed any egregiously fireable offenses.

47. MD 01 (Open R, Gilchrest lost primary) - Rep. Wayne Gilchrest endorsed Democrat Frank Kratovil, as have several other prominent Republicans, but Republican Andy Harris has a bigger base than Kratovil and that could make the difference.

48. FL 08 (Keller - R) - Rep. Rick Keller faced a surprisingly tough race in 2006, and his opposition to the troop surge in Iraq could have hurt him among his base. A recent Democratic poll showed the race neck-and-neck.

49. MO 06 (Graves - R) - Rep. Sam Graves owes back taxes on airplanes he owns, which could give Democrat Kay Barnes a boost, but national Democrats have yet to put money into the district, raising questions about their confidence in Barnes.

50. MO 09 (Open R, Hulshof running for Gov) - The GOP bypassed a conservative for a more moderate candidate, and now public polls have showed Republican nominee Blaine Luetkemeyer running well ahead of Democrat Judy Baker.

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