• Election 2008
• National RCP Average
• Electoral Maps
• Battleground States
• Latest Polls

September 19, 2008

Top House Races, Continued

By Reid Wilson and Kyle Trygstad

Part two of our list of the top fifty most competitive House seats once again demonstrates the success Democrats have had expanding the playing field and the troubles the party has had defending their own vulnerable incumbents.

Given the amount of Republican open seats, the number of Democrats in districts John McCain is going to win by sizable margins and the sheer expansion of playable territory Democrats have been able to achieve, expect a big turnover between this Congress and the one inaugurated in January.

Democrats are likely to gain seats, but thanks to Congress' minuscule approval rating -- and the remarkable number of incumbents who have net-negative ratings of their own -- that gain may not be as massive as previously suspected.

Remember, races are listed in order of likeliness to change party hands. The top seat, New York's Thirteenth Congressional District, is the seat most likely to be held by the opposite party come January. Without further ado, our list of most endangered House seats:

26. Michigan 07 -- Walberg (R): In 2006, Tim Walberg knocked off moderate Republican Rep. Joe Schwarz in the GOP primary, thanks to help from the Club for Growth. Walberg went on to defeat Sharon Renier (D) by just 4 points despite outspending her more than twenty to one. That's a luxury he won't have this year against state Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer (D), who so far has outraised the Republican.

27. Illinois 10 -- Kirk (R): Rep. Mark Kirk should probably be in worse shape than he is, but the four-term moderate Republican -- in a suburban Chicago district John Kerry won by 6 points but with soft party preferences -- has significantly outraised rerun candidate Dan Seals (D). Still, Seals has an excellent ground game and could feel the positive effects of Obama's lengthy coattails north of the Democratic presidential nominee's home city.

28. Florida 24 -- Feeney (R) -- Jack Abramoff directly cost Republicans about half a dozen seats last cycle, and if his specter still haunts the GOP, Rep. Tom Feeney will be in the crosshairs after cooperating with the Justice Department's investigation of the jailed lobbyist. Democrats are excited about former State Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, who actually had more money than Feeney in the pre-primary reporting period.

29. Kentucky 03 -- Yarmuth (D): It may have been a bigger surprise when John Yarmuth, then a newspaper publisher and columnist, won the Democratic primary in 2006 rather than his general election victory over congresswoman Anne Northup (R). The five-term Republican, who missed six weeks of campaigning that year following the death of her son, was an annual target in this Democratic-leaning district but returns this year to win back her seat.

30. Alabama 02 -- OPEN -- Everett (R) retiring -- Democrats have no business winning in such a Republican district. But the success of conservative Democrats in special elections earlier this year and the party's ability to recruit Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) makes this race a top opportunity. Still, State Rep. Jay Love (R) is an experienced candidate, and John McCain's coattails will help him in November.

31. Louisiana 04 -- OPEN -- McCrery (R) retiring -- A costly and contentious Republican primary between former parish coroner John Fleming, attorney Jeff Thompson and businessman Chris Gorman provides Caddo District Attorney Paul Carmouche (D) an opening in a district as conservative as Cazayoux's Sixth District. Carmouche won't face a third-party candidate set to cut into his base, either, making this race set to jump higher on the list.

32. Mississippi 01 -- Childers (D) -- It was Childers' win in a special election in June that panicked Republicans. In November, Childers will face Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R), the same opponent he beat earlier this year. McCain and Senator Roger Wicker will win the Tupelo-based district, forcing Davis to try to tie Childers to national, and much more liberal, Democrats. That avenue of attack is successful at times, but it didn't work against Childers this Spring.

33. Connecticut 04 -- Shays (R): After eight comfortable re-elections, Rep. Christopher Shays had close calls in his last two races thanks to his support for the war in Iraq. Now, as the lone Republican House member from New England, Shays continues to get hit on the issue by Jim Himes (D), a businessman and non-profit executive who has stayed financially competitive.

34. New Mexico 02 -- OPEN -- Pearce (R) running for Senate -- Two candidates who have largely self-funded make this race for the most Republican seat in New Mexico suddenly competitive. McCain is likely to win the district, but restauranteur Ed Tinsley (R) is already being hammered by Democrats and could have to start spending on television ads early. The race will be regional, too: Former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague (D) has a base in Hobbs, on the Texas border, while Tinsley is from Las Cruces, in the middle of the district.

35. Georgia 08 -- Marshall (D) -- Perpetually vulnerable, Rep. Jim Marshall survived in 2006 by the skin of his teeth. He beat a weak opponent by a wide margin when President Bush won his area in 2004, but that was in a different district, thanks to Texas-inspired mid-decade redistricting. This time, he's running against retired Air Force General Rick Goddard (R), and McCain could do better in the new district than Bush's 61%, making coattails a worry for Marshall.

36. Florida 25 -- M. Diaz-Balart (R) -- Cuban voters have historically favored Republicans, but with the rise of a younger generation, that could be changing. If it is, look for evidence in Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart's fast-growing district in suburban and exurban Miami. He faces former county Democratic Party chair Joe Garcia, who has raised an impressive amount of money. Barack Obama will likely outperform previous Democratic candidates, but 2008 might still be too early for the party to take the seat.

37. Missouri 06 -- Graves (R) -- Suburban Kansas City remains solidly Republican, but the metro part of Rep. Sam Graves' district is going to give former Mayor Kay Barnes (D) a big boost. Barnes has raised a significant amount of money and showed a slight cash on hand advantage after the pre-primary filing deadline. Democrats are going to spend heavily on the race, and Republicans are unlikely to have the cash to respond in kind.

38. Illinois 14 -- Foster (D) -- Unlike Reps. Travis Childers and Don Cazayoux, Bill Foster won his special election this Spring by running like a traditional Democrat. He will face businessman Jim Oberweis in a Fall rematch. In March, Foster benefited from an ad featuring homestate favorite Barack Obama. This time, Foster will share the ballot with Obama, an advantage that could boost his winning percentage, as many observers expect Obama to win even ordinarily Republican districts in Illinois.

39. Michigan 09 -- Knollenberg (R) -- Rep. Joe Knollenberg's Oakland County district is the home of the Reagan Democrat, and though he's won re-election to eight terms, he won just 52% against a weak and underfunded challenger in 2006. Democrats have their sites the seat now, and former State Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters (D) has raised the funds necessary to compete in November. Michigan is in the midst of a one-state recession, and deeply unhappy voters could take out their frustrations on incumbents.

40. Minnesota 03 -- OPEN -- Ramstad (R) retiring: Although fellow Republicans wanted Rep. Jim Ramstad to reconsider his retirement, the GOP is confident state Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) can retain the seat. National Democrats' choice candidate, state Sen. Terri Bonoff (DFL), lost her party's endorsement to upstart attorney and Iraq war veteran Ashwin Madia. Madia is keeping pace with Paulsen in fundraising and Democrats still believe this is prime pick-up territory.

41. Ohio 01 -- Chabot (R) -- Cincinnati Rep. Steve Chabot has faced some tight races since his election in 1994, and this year will be no different. Democrats say state House Minority Whip Steve Driehaus (D) is a much better candidate than 2006 challenger John Cranley, who lost by a 52%-48% margin. Chabot has a maverick reputation, and Driehaus and Democrats' chances at victory might hinge on their ability to tie Chabot to Washington Republicans.

42. Pennsylvania 04 -- Altmire (D) -- Two years ago, Jason Altmire defeated incumbent Republican Melissa Hart (R) despite being outspent two-to-one, with insiders and observers suggesting Hart simply didn't work hard enough. Hart is running again this year, and she's working harder, but by all accounts Altmire has paid attention to constituent services and he's likely to outspend Hart by his own two-to-one margin this time.

43. Missouri 09 -- OPEN -- Hulshof (R) running for Gov -- Two tough primaries produced nominees of fractured parties, but Republicans came out with the more moderate candidate. Former state Tourism director Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) beat out a Club for Growth-backed candidate, while Democratic observers admit State Rep. Judy Baker (D) was not the most centrist candidate the party could have picked. A poll for Baker's campaign showed her leading right after the primary, but that could change once Luetkemeyer consolidates his base.

44. Idaho 01 -- Sali (R) -- One of the most conservative districts in the country is also home to a Democratic opportunity, albeit a longshot. Freshman Rep. Bill Sali has committed several high-profile gaffes this cycle, and his fundraising prowess is so poor that some vendors have refused him credit. Businessman Walt Minnick (D) is getting help from Washington and has significant resources of his own, giving him a chance to hold a seat Democrats lost in the 1994 elections.

45. Maryland 01 -- OPEN -- Gilchrest (R) lost primary -- State Senator Andy Harris (R) beat out incumbent Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in February, but in doing so the more conservative Harris could have given Democrats a chance here. Queen Anne County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil (D) faces an uphill battle, but he has support from Gilcrest, which could help him make the seat competitive.

46. California 4 -- Open -- Doolittle (R) retiring: The Fourth almost flipped in 2006, when Rep. John Doolittle's ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff left him vulnerable in a comfortably Republican district. Retired Air Force officer Charlie Brown (D) quickly started a second bid, and this time he faces State Senator Tom McClintock (R), the closest thing California has to a conservative standout. McClintock's home is 400 miles away from the Sacramento-based district, which could cause the Republican problems in November.

47. California 11 -- McNerney (D) -- Republicans initially touted former assemblyman Dean Andal as one of their top recruits. But as he fell farther behind in fundraising, enthusiasm sapped, while Democrats found angles of attack that may gain traction. Outside groups fought hard for Rep. Jerry McNerney in 2006, and they're going spend heavily to keep him in office.

48. Arizona 05 -- Mitchell (D) -- Though favorite son John McCain tops the ticket, a bitter primary left former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert (R) with a sapped campaign account. Meanwhile, Rep. Harry Mitchell was running advertisements before the primary, and he'll easily outspend Schweikert between now and November. Mitchell base is in the district's second-largest city, but there he's a legend, which will make him tough to beat.

49. Florida 21 -- L. Diaz-Balart (R) -- Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart could see a closer race this year as Cuban voters consider Democrats for the first time in years. His opponent, ex-Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez (D), is a candidate with roots in a Republican part of the district, and he's still got more than $1 million in the bank. But Lincoln's district is more Republican than his brother Mario's district, making Martinez's task all the more difficult.

50. Texas 23 -- Rodriguez (D) -- A court order gave Rep. Ciro Rodriguez the chance to steal a Republican-held seat late in 2006, and though Republicans think they can contest the seat this year, they may be disappointed. Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson (R) faces an Hispanic incumbent in a 65% Hispanic district. Bexar County, home of San Antonio, has the majority of the district's population, but Rodriguez has a base there too, and four times the financial resources Larson has.

In Pictures: Top 25 Competitive House Races

About Us | RSS | Contact | Advertise | Privacy Policy         © RealClearPolitics 2008