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September 08, 2008

Top 25 Competitive Congressional Races

By Reid Wilson and Kyle Trygstad

Think this is going to be another big year for Democrats? They have chances, but they also have a lot of territory to defend. Think Republicans can crawl back? Not until they deal with fundamental issues that sent them to the minority in 2006.

Democrats did their best to expand the playing field two years ago, and they succeeded in places like Indiana, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. That gave the party a larger majority than Republicans enjoyed even after their 1994 landslide.

But it also means Democrats have to spend resources defending those vulnerable incumbents in a more normalized, but not completely normal, environment. For all the talk of another impending landslide, the number of vulnerable Democrats on the list of the top fifty House races -- 18 -- should temper expectations.

Republicans, though, should keep that champagne on ice. And National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Tom Cole has it right when he blames incumbent retirements for his party's ills. Seven of the top ten races (Eight of which are Republican-held seats) are currently held by Republicans who are not seeking re-election.

Thanks to national atmospherics, and to a surprising number of Democratic challengers who lost in 2006 but who are in better shape than they were two years ago, the GOP remains in serious trouble. In any other cycle, a majority of competitive races are still won by the incumbent party. This year, like in 2006, the Republican brand is in near-critical shape.

In the end, given the amount of Republican open seats, the number of Democrats in districts John McCain is going to win by sizable margins and the sheer expansion of playable territory Democrats have been able to achieve, expect a big turnover between this Congress and that inaugurated in January 2007. Democrats are likely to gain seats, but thanks to Congress' miniscule approval rating -- and the remarkable number of incumbents who have net-negative ratings of their own -- that gain may not be as large as previously suspected.

Races are listed in order of likeliness to change party hands. The top seat, New York's Thirteenth Congressional District, is the seat most likely to be held by the opposite party come January.

1. New York 13 -- OPEN -- Fossella (R) retiring -- Everything that could go right has for Democrats, while everything that could go wrong has for Republicans. New York City Councilmember Mike McMahon (D) is better known, better funded and better organized than any of the three Republicans who will face off in a September primary.

2. Arizona 01 -- OPEN -- Renzi (R) retiring -- Nearly a dozen Republicans told the national party they would not run for the seat, while national Democrats settled on former State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick more than a year ago. With a big financial advantage over mining lobbyist Sydney Hay in a district that is rapidly moving toward Democrats, Kirkpatrick is the odds-on favorite.

3. Louisiana 06 -- Cazayoux (D) -- One of the harbingers of what could be a mounting Democratic wave could also be one of the shortest-term members of Congress. Rep. Don Cazayoux beat a weak Republican in June, but in November he will face much stronger State Senator Bill Cassidy
(R) as well as independent State Rep. Michael Jackson. Jackson, who is African American, will eat significantly into Cazayoux's Democratic base.

4. New York 25 -- OPEN -- Walsh (R) retiring -- After coming within just a few points of beating Rep. Jim Walsh in 2006, former Congressional aide Dan Maffei (D) is back for a second try. The Syracuse-based district is becoming more Democratic, and it didn't help that the GOP had to settle on former County Legislature chairman Dale Sweetland (R), who has so far proven an anemic fundraiser and weak candidate.

5. Virginia 11 -- OPEN -- Davis (R) retiring -- One has to wonder whether even Rep. Tom Davis, with his considerable political ability, could have held on to his suburban Washington district as it shifts toward Democrats. Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chair Gery Connolly (D) looks like the heavy favorite against unknown businessman Keith Fimian (R), but Fimian has cash and could make this a closer race than observers predict at the moment.

6. Texas 22 -- Lampson (D): Rep. Nick Lampson won a very Republican seat in 2006 thanks to the resignation of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (and the fact that no Republican appeared on the general election ballot). Despite a large fundraising edge over Pete Olson (R), a former chief of staff to Sen. John Cornyn (R), the heavy GOP lean of the district and Olson's talent as a candidate could spell defeat for the incumbent.

7. Alaska At-Large -- Young (R): Democrats were hoping Rep. Don Young, running for an eighteenth term, would win his primary. Former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz's (D) chances of winning in November increased dramatically when the ethics scandal-plagued Young apparently edged out Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (R) in a tight primary (He leads Parnell by about 250 votes, though counting hasn't finished yet).

8. New Jersey 03 -- OPEN -- Saxton (R) retiring: President Bush won this Southern New Jersey district by just 2 points in 2004. With fourteen-term Rep. Jim Saxton retiring and state Sen. John Adler (D) with a 10-to-1 fundraising advantage over Medford Township councilman Chris Myers (R) -- who was forced to spend much of his campaign warchest in the primary -- Democrats are poised to pick this increasingly favorable district up in November.

9. Ohio 16 -- OPEN -- Regula (R) retiring: After 36 years in office, Rep. Ralph Regula's retirement could mean the end of Republican rule of the Canton-based district. While the seat leans Republican, the well-financed and highly-touted moderate state Sen. John Boccieri (D) is well-positioned against fellow state Sen. Kirk Schuring (R).

10. Ohio 15 -- OPEN -- Pryce (R) retiring: Mary Jo Kilroy (D) came within some 1,000 votes of defeating Rep. Deborah Pryce in 2006, who decided to not run for a ninth term this year. With Pryce's retirement and more than $1 million in the bank, Kilroy finds herself in good position against state Sen. Steve Stivers (R), though national Republicans boast of Stivers' skills as a candidate.

11. Pennsylvania 11 -- Kanjorski (D) -- Ethics issues, questionable earmarks and an unremarkable record, coupled with a near-celebrity opponent, put Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) atop national Republicans' target list. Kanjorski hasn't faced a real race in decades, and John McCain is likely to win the Scranton-based district, aiding Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R). It's one race in which the "change" mantra may benefit Republicans.

12. Colorado 04 -- Musgrave (R) -- Any incumbent who wins re-election with 46% of the vote is in trouble, as is Rep. Marilyn Musgrave. Her opponent, former Congressional aide Betsy Markey (D), has backers in the environmental community who have already spent heavily on the race. Environmental groups are trying to make Musgrave this year's version of Richard Pombo (R), the former Resources committee chair knocked from his California seat in 2006, and they may just succeed.

13. Kansas 02 -- Boyda (D) -- Democrats in Kansas usually only win when moderate and conservative Republicans are at each other's throats. So when State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (R) won quick and unconditional support from her primary foe, ex-Rep. Jim Ryun (R), the GOP's chances of taking an ordinarily very Republican seat grew almost exponentially. Rep. Nancy Boyda has also refused national party money, handing Jenkins a big advantage.

14. New Jersey 07 -- OPEN -- Ferguson (R) retiring -- President Bush barely won Rep. Mike Ferguson's district, stretching from suburban New York to the Pennsylvania border, and Ferguson came surprisingly close to losing himself. National Democrats are excited for, and spending money to back, a second run by State Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D), who has outraised State Senator Leonard Lance (R) by a three-to-one margin.

15. New Hampshire 01 -- Shea-Porter (D) -- Like Boyda, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter has refused national Democratic money and is trying to run the same kind of race she did in 2006, when she upset Rep. Jeb Bradley (R). No state lurched as heavily left as New Hampshire, and if Shea-Porter is banking her re-election hopes on the same atmosphere she may be disappointed. Her big hope: That Bradley and former state cabinet secretary John Stephen (R) have bloodied each other enough in advance of tomorrow's primary.

16. Pennsylvania 10 -- Carney (D): Rep. Christopher Carney represents a Northeast Pennsylvania district that gave President Bush 60% of the vote in 2004, and where Barack Obama did notably poorly in the state's April primary. That's not a recipe for success for a Democrat, especially one who won by challenging an incumbent with serious personal problems. Republicans are enthusiastic about businessman Chris Hackett (R), who won a competitive primary.

17. Illinois 11 -- OPEN -- Weller (R) retiring: Rep. Jerry Weller, a member of the GOP class of 1994, is retiring, and it never helps when the winner of the GOP primary drops out. The replacement candidate, concrete company general manager Martin Ozinga (R), has proven a remarkable fundraiser, which he'll need to be against state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D), a top Democratic recruit with more than $900,000 in the bank by the end of June. Halvorson is favored, but Ozinga has impressed so far.

18. Wisconsin 08 -- Kagen (D): In a rematch of the close 2006 open seat race, former Assembly Speaker John Gard (R) is challenging Rep. Steve Kagen in this GOP-leaning district. The wealthy freshman Democrat had an inauspicious start to his congressional career, having committed several gaffes, and the impressive Gard has already taken to the airwaves knocking the Democratic Congress on gas prices.

19. New Mexico 01 -- OPEN -- Wilson (R) retiring: Rep. Heather Wilson lost her primary for Senate to fellow Rep. Steve Pearce in the GOP primary, leaving behind a marginal district that both John Kerry and Al Gore won. Her exit offers Albuquerque councilor Martin Heinrich (D) a great chance at picking up the seat, though he'll have a challenging race against Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White (R), who Republicans see as one of their best recruits.

20. Nevada 03 -- Porter (R): This district, south of Las Vegas, gave Republicans and Democrats almost identical presidential votes in 2000 and 2004. Two years ago, Rep. Jon Porter won by a single point, despite outspending his opponent two to one. Democrats are excited about state Senator Dina Titus, who won the district during her run for governor in 2006.

21. New York 26 -- OPEN -- Reynolds (R) retiring -- Rep. Tom Reynolds's seat should be in more jeopardy but for a contested Democratic primary between businessman Jack Davis (D), attorney Alice Kryzan (D) and Iraq war vet Jon Powers (D). National Democrats favor Powers, but Davis has spent a lot of his own money, creating what could be a nominee with a depleted warchest. Businessman Chris Lee (R) gives Republicans a good shot at keeping the seat.

22. Florida 16 -- Mahoney (D) -- Somehow, Rep. Tim Mahoney has survived saying his job as a member of Congress wasn't the best job he's ever had, and his moderate voting record could hold him in good stead. But Florida Republicans have been after attorney Tom Rooney (R) -- whose family owns the Pittsburgh Steelers -- to run for something for years, and after winning a competitive primary he gives the party a good shot in November.

23. New York 29 -- Kuhl (R) -- Rep. Randy Kuhl beat his 2006 opponent by a surprisingly narrow 6,000 votes as upstate New York gave Republicans up and down the ballot a scare. That opponent, former Naval officer Eric Massa, is back for a rematch and has significantly outriased Kuhl. Watch both parties pour money into the seat.

24. Washington 08 -- Reichert (R) -- Ask the average voter in this suburban Seattle district and Rep. Dave Reichert is not a member of Congress, he's still the sheriff. That image has kept the Republican in office in a district Democrats John Kerry and Al Gore won. 2006 nominee Darcy Burner is back and raising more money than she did two years ago, but Reichert is a survivor, and beating him will be difficult.

25. North Carolina 08 -- Hayes (R) -- Kuhl and Reichert won by a few thousand votes in 2006. Rep. Robin Hayes beat teacher Larry Kissell (D) by a few hundred. This time out, Kissell is raising more money and national Democrats won't overlook the suburban Charlotte district this time. Still, a mid-August poll for Hayes' campaign showed him leading by ten.

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