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September 26, 2008
McCain Ploy Ultimately Changes Little
By Carl LeubsdorfIf John McCain's goal was to change this week's script, he clearly succeeded. But it's unclear if his gambit will succeed in changing the tenor and ultimate result of his race against Barack Obama.
On the defensive over the presidential campaign's dominant issue, the economy, Mr. McCain sought to change the dynamic, as he did when he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. He called for a delay in Friday night's presidential debate and announced he would suspend his campaign and return to Washington to help break the deadlock over the proposed bailout plan.
Critics immediately accused the Arizona senator of political grandstanding in the face of faltering poll numbers, noting that congressional leaders and Bush administration officials already were resolving differences over the massive package.
Supporters argued that Mr. McCain's move meant he would be able to claim a large share of responsibility if a package ultimately passed because his support was needed to get enough House Republican votes to create the bipartisan support Democratic leaders demanded.
In fact, both critics and supporters may be right.
Mr. McCain's move was clearly political, since he was not directly involved in hammering out the complex legislation. But his role as the party's de facto leader may give him leverage over GOP congressmen who would otherwise not fall in line.
Indeed, the Republican standard-bearer seems to have acted less to rescue the talks than to ease the potential damage to himself and his party for opposing, or even killing, a bipartisan bailout proposal.
Circumstances leading to his announcement Wednesday strongly suggest that.
For more than a week, he has encountered increasing political difficulty on the economy. It stemmed from his initial comment that the economy is fundamentally sound, contradictory statements on successive days on the wisdom of bailing out insurance giant AIG and criticism of the bailout plan that left the impression he might oppose it.
Mr. Obama has been more consistent, outlining several conditions for the legislation last Friday that apparently will make it into the final bill. But he kept his public distance from the talks, though apparently in touch with all sides by phone.
Politically, that approach seems to be working. As Mr. McCain's slender post-convention polling lead melted away, polls showed that the public favored Mr. Obama's approach to economic issues, though by modest margins.
Interestingly, just hours before Mr. McCain's move, his campaign held a conference call to denounce a poll showing a relatively large Obama lead, raising valid doubts about aspects of that poll. But actions often speak louder than words, and Mr. McCain's moves suggest his strategists considered his position unfavorable.
While he was working through his own position, House Republicans were resisting the idea of vastly increasing the power of the federal government. In return, Democratic leaders were bristling at the idea of owning the political burden for the Bush administration's controversial idea.
By the time Mr. McCain reached Washington yesterday, Democratic leaders were announcing an agreement in principle with the administration.
But House Republicans indicated they were not on board, and a White House meeting that included President Bush, Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama apparently ended without final agreement. Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd said House Republicans unexpectedly introduced some alternative ideas.
Continued impasse could increase pressure on Mr. McCain, especially if he proves unable to deliver enough House Republicans to ensure bipartisan support for a bailout package that might otherwise pass.
The apparent deadlock also continued to leave Friday night's scheduled debate in limbo, but at some point it will take place. When it does, the campaign focus will return to the fundamental differences between the two contenders.
But the longer the bailout impasse continues, the more likely its fallout could affect the presidential race. And any continuing sign of governmental gridlock could heighten public sentiment to make a dramatic change from the unpopular Bush presidency.
