July 15, 2008
Dems Expand House Playing Field
By
Reid Wilson
With a nearly seven-to-one cash on hand advantage, an advantageous political landscape second only to that of two years ago and an opposing party whose follies seem to get worse by the day, House Democratic strategists are looking to expand the playing field into previously untapped Republican territory. And thanks to the GOP's lack of resources and poor political position nationwide, that expansion could lead to a pickup of more than a dozen seats.
Last week, Democrats reserved nearly $35 million in television advertising time in 31 districts around the country, including in 20 seats currently held by Republicans. The reservation, which the party made early to lock in cheaper advertising rates, will represent the foundation from which Democrats will look to build their majority.
National Republicans, though, say Democratic efforts to win big will be inhibited by their need to protect their incumbents. "Despite their many claims that Democrat incumbents had solidified their reelections, the DCCC is now planning to sink millions upon millions of dollars into defending nearly a dozen of their own members," National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain said (The inital ad reservation made last week sets aside $13 million for Democratic-held seats). Those Democrats' "records of massive tax hikes, runaway spending, and opposition to lowering energy costs have left them vulnerable to a Republican challenge," he said.
The advertising reservation is not the first paid media move Democrats have made this year, or even this month. In fact, it's also the least ambitious purchase, politically speaking, so far this year. Over the Fourth of July weekend, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeted thirteen incumbent Republicans with a radio ad campaign that featured a President Bush impersonator thanking incumbents for votes they took that Democrats say benefited big oil companies.
The radio advertisements targeted a few Republicans who had close races in 2006, but it also showed off Democrats' financial advantage. The DCCC can afford to target not only endangered Republicans, but those whose political future looks safe, including Reps. Shelly Moore Capito of West Virginia, who won by 14 points in 2006; Brian Bilbray of California, who won by ten points; Virgil Goode of Virginia, who won by nineteen points; and Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, who won in 2006 by twenty-four points.
The far-reaching and ambitious advertising buy may not have any impact whatsoever, but it's part of an early pasta-on-the-wall strategy. National Democrats put just $8,000 into McHenry's district, but, said DCCC executive director Brian Wolff, a massive effort so early isn't necessarily the goal. "We want to see how many races we can put in play," Wolff said in an interview. "We'll know down the stretch where we can put our resources." The goal, in essence, is to throw everything at the wall and see what sticks.
After a wave election in 2006, Democrats saw just how far their party could go in what they expected to be non-competitive, Republican-held seats. "Without a doubt," Wolff said, "the way we came off of 2006, we missed some great opportunities." Wolff pointed to Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, the New Hampshire Democrat who won despite the DCCC pulling out once she upset their favored candidate in the primary; Darcy Burner, the Washington State businesswoman who came within two points of beating Rep. Dave Reichert; and Larry Kissell, who missed beating Rep. Robin Hayes by just 350 votes.
The DCCC is planning to target somewhere near 40 seats, though combined with endangered members from their own party, the committee considers around 80 seats across the country in play. But this year, the targets will be more scatter-shot than in typical wave elections. Last cycle, Democrats made big gains in the Northeast, leaving Rep. Christopher Shays the only Republican in the House from the northeast. In 1994, the Republican wave knocked out a number of Southern Democrats.
But to talk with a Democratic strategist is to get a peek into a country full of opportunities. "This time, I think it's really going to be a little bit here and there," Wolff said of his party's chances. He proceeded to tick off districts in Pennsylvania (One pickup opportunity for Democrats), Virginia (Up to three), Florida (Four), Illinois (Three), Arizona (Two), Nevada (Two) and a handful of other states, including typically Republican territory like Wyoming and Alaska.
Wolff and others caution against their own party getting too optimistic, but even they can't help themselves at times. Democratic strategists are leery of the notion that they will pick up the dozens of seats that a best-case scenario would allow. But thanks to the explosion of competitive House races in 2006 and now this year, there are few states without at least one competitive contest. The corrallary, though, is that if Democrats win big this year, Republicans can expect a big number of ripe targets in 2010 when the anti-GOP tumult quiets.
The key, both parties agree, is to get away from broad national issues that haven't worked lately and to focus on building a local profile. A recent audit of three Republican special election losses concluded that the traditional Republican message, as well as casting their Democratic opponents as liberals in step with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, simply didn't work.
"When you saw Bill Foster or when you saw Don Cazayoux or when you saw Travis Childers, they fit that district perfectly," Wolff said, refering to new members of Congress who won special elections in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi, respectively. That's what allowed all three to win in GOP terrain, including Childers, who took a seat that had given President Bush a twenty five-point win in 2004. "If those Democrats fit, they're going to win."
Wolff, though, recognizes that his party is playing on what was once foreign turf. That fact has led the DCCC to recruit candidates who can win, rather than those who fit some sort of national ideology. Childers and Cazayoux, both conservative Democrats, have each expressed little enthusiasm about campaigning alongside Barack Obama, for example, as internal polls for both parties showed the Illinois Senator with net negative favorable ratings in the two districts. The right candidates "are going to be the more fiscally responsible" Democrats, Wolff said. "We're not talking about a lot of progressive Democrats that are running."
The DCCC also anticipates a potential hurdle with new voters Obama is expected to drive to the polls. In order for downballot Democrats to prevail, the DCCC will work in concert with Obama's campaign on voter education, beginning in late July with a "National Day of Mobilization" that is still in the works.
Recent polls have showed Democrats leading generic ballots by wide margins -- 12.2 points in the latest RCP Average -- and both President Bush and the Republican Party dwell near historic approval lows. But by following the Democratic playbook of disassociating themselves with the national party, they may win. "Republican candidates should anticipate a tough political environment, while realizing that there is in fact a path to victory as the Democrat-led Congress has forfeited the mantle of change," Spain, of the NRCC, said.
But until Republicans find a way out of their present political quagmire, it will be Democrats who drive the formation of the political landscape. Still, even with money to burn, the party may once again not have enough to compete in every race they would like. "We have more races than we can afford," Wolff admitted.
Reid Wilson is an associate editor and writer for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at
reid@realclearpolitics.com
