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May 09, 2008

Dems Must Have Dream Ticket to Win This Year

By Steve Mitchell

Everyone said there was no way the seasoned US Senate leader would ever take a backseat to the brash, young backbencher, the Senate Leader's rival for the presidential nomination. The Senate Leader had been a major fixture in national politics for years, a giant on the national stage.
The rival was a new, young, fresh face with fewer accomplishments, but great charisma and charm, offering change to a new generation.

But the Senate leader did take a backseat. Almost a half century ago, Senate Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson accepted the 1960 vice presidential nomination on the ticket with Senator John F. Kennedy. Kennedy knew he needed Johnson to win Texas and other Southern states, and LBJ knew he had a better chance of becoming president himself someday if he were to be vice president.

It is now clear to me that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama must be on the Democratic ticket if the Democrats want to win the Presidency this year. It is to many the "dream ticket." To others, it is the "nightmare ticket."

Bill Clinton's not so subtle suggestion in March that Barack Obama would make a great vice president is rooted in his knowledge that the only way Democrats can win is if both Obama and Clinton are on the ticket.

African-Americans are the strongest part of the Democratic coalition.
About nine in ten vote consistently, and often straight, Democratic. A second major constituency that Democrats must have to win is women.

As this campaign continues, these two constituencies are getting heavily invested in their candidate. More than nine in ten African-Americans are voting for Obama. Women, who make up almost 60% of all voters in the Democratic primaries, are supporting Hillary Clinton. Additionally, all white voters are moving more and more towards Clinton. About two in three are now voting for her.

Every week that goes by creates a greater division between Obama and Clinton supporters. The overall favorable rating of both candidates is falling as Clinton voters begin to say they don't like Obama and as Obama voters say they don't like Clinton.

The longer this campaign goes, the deeper the divisions will be and the less likely it is that the Democrats will be able to come together to win
in November.

As Democrats look at how to solve the Michigan and Florida dilemma, it only creates more confusion and puts more pressure on the "Super Delegates."

Although the results in Indiana and North Carolina now make it unlikely, if Clinton were to win the nomination using "Super Delegates" she would anger a large number of Obama supporters. Many of those supporters are young voters and African-Americans who have been moved by his call for change. There is a real possibility that Clinton could lose in November if enough of these voters abandon the Democratic Party because they are angry about her winning the nomination with "Super Delegates." She cannot win the major states in the General Election without African-Americans.

If Obama wins the nomination, which seems likely to happen, many white women, especially those older than 50, may not support Obama to the extent that he needs to win in November. Without strong support from these white women, he cannot win the General Election.

Some argue that because of the Rev. Wright issue, Obama is fatally flawed. Others say Clinton is fatally flawed because of her high negatives. However, the only way young voters, African-Americans, and women can all be brought to the table in support of the Democratic ticket in November is if they are both on it.

Why would either take the second spot? For the same reason LBJ did 48 years ago: because they have a better chance to become president if they are vice president than if they are not.

The question that will be answered in November is whether it is a "dream" or "nightmare" ticket.

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