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April 21, 2008

Luntz's Last Minute Pennsylvania Focus Group

Hannity & Colmes

HANNITY: With only hours to go before Pennsylvania Democrats cast their votes. One man knows what at least some of them, at least, are thinking. Frank Luntz has been holding focus groups with undecided PA voters, and he joins us now with results.

Frank, good to see you, buddy.

FRANK LUNTZ, POLLSTER: Pleasure.

HANNITY: You've done -- been doing some fantastic work. I'd love to hear what people think and how they really feel, because they're really honest. That's what I think you need to tell our audience when they're giving you their heart-felt opinions, there's no spin. They let it right out there. Let's start with our first dialup.

LUNTZ: Yes. We did this a couple days ago. We were watching the debate, and the reaction of Senator Clinton was not all that positive, even though pretty much say that Barack Obama did not do as well. When Senator Clinton tried to talk about her background and her grandfather and tried to connect her to the people of Pennsylvania...

HANNITY: They didn't buy it.

LUNTZ: ... they didn't buy it at all. Watch how low the lines fall as she talks about her grandfather, being the daughter -- granddaughter...

HANNITY: Right.

LUNTZ: ... of a mine worker. Let's take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, I am the granddaughter of a factory worker from Scranton who went to work in the Scranton lace mills when he was 11 years old, worked his entire work there, mostly six-day weeks.

He was also very active in the Court Street Methodist Church, and he raised three sons and was very proud that he sent all of them to college. I don't believe that my grandfather or my father or the many people whom I have had the privilege of knowing and meeting across Pennsylvania over many years cling to religion when Washington is not listening to them. I think that is a fundamental...

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY: All right. Now that was -- now we did another one last night on "Hannity's America," and it was almost the same result. Because that was about the shot and the beer. You had Ed Rendell with these students. And, except for one girl, everybody said, "Come on." She's not making boilermakers on a regular basis.

LUNTZ: There's a word for this. It's credibility. That's what they want. They want you to say what you mean and mean what you say. They want you to be who you are. She was first lady for eight years. Talk about that. She's been a Senator for eight years. Talk about that.

We've got a second clip...

HANNITY: Bosnia.

LUNTZ: ... where she tries to explain what she did, why she did it, and once again...

HANNITY: The Bosnia sniper issue.

LUNTZ: ... you can see the lines go down.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: You can go back for the past -- past 15 months. We both have said things that, you know, turned out not to be accurate. That happens when you're talking as much as we have talked, but you know, I'm very sorry that I said it, and I have said that, you know, it just didn't jibe with what I had written about and knew to be the truth.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: You can't -- you keep talking about it. You know, at one point, you've got to stop talking about it at some point.

LUNTZ: And here's what's interesting. Yesterday we had a group of undecided voters in this studio. I thought that ABC had been unfair. I thought MoveOn.org had a case.

And the undecided voters said, "Oh, no way. These are legitimate questions, because they point to people's character. They point to their judgment. They point to the individuals that they hang out with." That they thought ABC was, in fact, fair in the debate. And these are questions...

COLMES: Let me go back to what you previously said. I saw what the lines did, but what's wrong with saying she's the granddaughter of someone from Scranton who worked in a factory? If it's true or not true.

LUNTZ: Because they think it's pandering. Alan, at this point, they don't want to know who your grandfather was. They want to know what you're going to do in housing.

They want to -- they don't want to know your relationship with your mother. They want to know what you're going to do in terms of keeping people's jobs. You know the economy in Pennsylvania.

COLMES: Yes.

LUNTZ: People think it's off on the wrong track. They want...

COLMES: I think if Democrats spent more time talking about the war, talking about jobs, talking about health care, talking about education, they'd be in a lot better shape when it comes to the general election.

LUNTZ: One of the things, as we showed with the viewers, when the lines go down, it only goes down about 15 percent, maybe even 10 percent of the debate, so that's a very rare occurrence.

When Hillary Clinton was trying to explain Bosnia, she did something that has not happened in this entire election campaign. Her numbers went off the screen. They weren't down to a 20. That is one of the worst showings of any politician.

COLMES: And you did a focus group, as well.

LUNTZ: Yes.

COLMES: On the Bosnia policy.

LUNTZ: And what's great about it is that they get a chance -- they get a chance...

COLMES: The apology, rather.

LUNTZ: They got a chance to hear about what real Democratic voters -- these are Democratic primary voters -- what they think of Senator Clinton's response on Bosnia. And they were very split.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Most of the time people don't remember events how they actually occurred.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Whether or not you were under sniper fire? Come on. That must be pretty memorable.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's true, but a momentary lapse in judgment.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I was disappointed by her apology, and I didn't find it very believable. But she did swing around and talk about the bigger issue of the success of the policy of Bosnia during the Clinton years. And in that small aspect, I thought she was successful.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm tired of hearing about the success of her husband. She was not vice-president. She was not a member of the cabinet. She lied. She repeated it four times, on four separate occasions over a long period of time. Being shot at, you're going to remember it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That's right.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: But she also has an ad that says who are you going to call at 3 a.m.? Well, if the person is too sleepy to answer a question properly at the middle of the day, why would I call her at 3 a.m.?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: What a great point. Poignant, only as the real Americans could communicate. And that's why Senator Clinton's had some trouble.

But let's not forget that most Americans think that Barack Obama did worse than Senator Clinton in that debate.

COLMES: He's doing pretty well nationally right now.

LUNTZ: And I -- and I still think he's the nominee.

COLMES: You think he's gaining in Pennsylvania (ph).

LUNTZ: Yes.

COLMES: We'll talk about more -- that and more, among other focus group piece when we get back with Frank Luntz.

Let's first check in with Greta Van Susteren, here to tell us what's coming up right after "Hannity & Colmes."

Good evening, Greta.

GRETA VAN SUSTEREN, FOX NEWS, "ON THE RECORD": Good evening, Alan.

It is nine hours and some minutes before those polls open in Pennsylvania and who better to analyze it than former speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich? He is here with us.

Plus, every school's nightmare, a parent's nightmare. A student tonight in custody, in jail. Wanted to do something like Columbine. The details of that.

More and back to you.

COLMES: Thanks very much.

And still to come, our political pundits pick through the polls and all the last-minute primary preps, give us their take on who will be tomorrow's big winner. That's still to come.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When your campaign brags about taking the kitchen sink out, throwing the china at it, the buffet table and -- that's not change.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: We now continue with Frank Luntz.

These focus groups you do, you did one on negative campaigning. And both -- each -- now the Democrats, each is accusing the other of negative campaigning.

LUNTZ: Correct. And the Democrats don't -- and here's what interesting.

COLMES: Is this a Democratic group?

LUNTZ: It was a Democratic group. They think that their candidates are going at each other. But they're not asking Hillary Clinton to leave, and this is something that national Democrats need to know.

That the Democrats that are going through this process. They don't like it when the two candidates are going at each other.

COLMES: Yes, but they want the process...

LUNTZ: but they want the process to continue, because they want to hear from both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama.

Listen to how critical they are of the negative campaigning. But understand, No. 1, that they're Democrats, and No. 2, they want Hillary to stay in.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The best course to get the presidency is to run a positive campaign against each other, run on the issues. If it's going to keep going like this, as it seems like it's going to, they need to stop attacking each other.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The back and forth, the nitpicking, it's just -- it's not going to work. They've got to go together.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think they should talk about issues that really matters, like economic issues, like health care.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think that the Republicans are good at winning elections, and that what the Democrats are doing by negative campaigning and attacking each other is making their job in November easier.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Maybe I just see the world through rose-colored glasses, but I'm thinking that if there's less smear and there's less bickering back and forth, that whoever gets the nomination may be able to learn from the other person.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Look, whoever gets the presidency has a lot of tough issues to face, and they're very complex. And if they can't go through an election, then they're not ready for the White House, plain and simple.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: Like, "Mommy and Daddy, please stop. Please stop arguing."

LUNTZ: Yes, but what's amazing about this is they were more articulate than we are.

HANNITY: Yes, speak for yourself, Frank.

LUNTZ: The language they used was the real language of real people.

COLMES: Right.

LUNTZ: And what they're saying to Senator Obama and Senator Clinton is debate the issues and cut -- I've got to be careful what I say here -- cut the garbage.

COLMES: Yes, OK. So what did -- what did Democrats need to do? Your advice to them at this point, because they're going to have to come together in November.

LUNTZ: Issue focus just on John McCain. You make John McCain a vote for George Bush.

COLMES: Stop going at each other?

LUNTZ: It's McCain/Bush, McCain/Bush, McCain/Bush, not Obama versus Clinton.

COLMES: Right. I want to hear more about -- they've got to talk about the war. They're got to talk about the economy, the things I mentioned a few moments ago.

LUNTZ: Alan, and...

COLMES: These are the things American people care about.

LUNTZ: And as a Democrat strategist, I would ask a simple question -- John -- do you know where John McCain stands on housing? Do you know where John McCain stands on education?

COLMES: Yes.

LUNTZ: I would ask those questions.

Everyone knows his character. Everyone knows what he's done. But they don't know where he stands on some of the issues.

COLMES: And either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, they're not exactly -- each one is trying to one-up the other in terms of getting the nomination, rather than going after him. But they don't have a nominee yet; that's the problem.

LUNTZ: Yes, but you know what? Both of them, they need to take a chill pill. Both of them need to really step back and relax.

HANNITY: Absolutely not.

COLMES: ... not to Hannity's liking (ph).

HANNITY: I want them to crack up, to continue. Absolutely.

One of the reasons they're not asking Hillary to leave, I would argue, is because the narrative on Barack Obama has changed dramatically here, and I think there's real fear among Democrats, you know, when is the next shoe going to drop?

Are we going to have another Reverend Wright? Are we going to have another Bill Ayers? Are we going to have another San Francisco moment of him saying people are clinging to their guns and their Bible and -- and have antipathy towards people that aren't like them?

LUNTZ: We did something last night live which blew me away. I read them, a group of undecided voters, the language of Barack Obama on morality, on religion. Republicans dialed it up, and the Democrats dialed it down, until they found out that it was Barack Obama saying it.

HANNITY: Right.

LUNTZ: The amazing thing is, it's still about character. It's still about personality.

HANNITY: Yes.

LUNTZ: And they have questions about Obama that they didn't have six weeks ago.

HANNITY: Alan says, "Well, we want to talk about health care. We want to talk about the issues."

But the most watched debate, people want to hear, "Why are you friendly with -- friendly with a man who admitted to blowing up the Pentagon, the Capitol? Why are you friendly with a man that bombed New York City police headquarters?"

He still hasn't answered why he's friendly with that guy, except, "Oh, he's a respected English teacher." What kind of answer is that?

LUNTZ: And the national news media beat up on ABC, but we asked these swing voters about that. And they proved me wrong.

HANNITY: Yes.

LUNTZ: They said they're legitimate.

HANNITY: Legitimate.

LUNTZ: They're legitimate.

HANNITY: And that means -- but there are a lot more questions that still need to come here. I personally feel there's still a narrative as it relates to -- by the way, I can't wait. Bill Moyers, who once said, about my radio show, "political pornography." He's going to be interviewing Jeremiah Wright.

So we have two people that don't like me on Friday. And I can't wait to see what they both say.

LUNTZ: And they're coming on this show?

HANNITY: No, Jeremiah Wright is going to be interviewed by Bill Moyers.

LUNTZ: Why don't we bring them both on this show? Right here.

HANNITY: Come on. Jeremiah Wright, full hour, Hannity versus Jeremiah Wright.

LUNTZ: Can I dial it? Can I dial it?

HANNITY: You could absolutely dial it.

LUNTZ: OK. Then let's do it.

HANNITY: Well, he's not going to accept.

LUNTZ: Why not?

HANNITY: Barack Obama's not going to accept. Hillary won't accept.

LUNTZ: Alan, you support him. You can...

COLMES: I support both Democrat candidates. We'd like to have them on. We'd love to have them on. They'd have to say yes.

LUNTZ: Any chance that I can dial these guys, I want to do it.

HANNITY: Well, the thing about the dials is that people are brutally honest. And you know, every election cycle we always hear people, "Oh, people are tired of the negative ads." They're really not tired of it, because the negative ads, in the end, work usually.

LUNTZ: As long as they are credible, as long as they believe the information, and as long as it informs them of something that they didn't know. They do not want to be told something that's old news.

(CROSSTALK)

HANNITY: Hillary taking shots of, you know, whiskey, Crown Royal -- I don't know, whatever it was -- and then chugging it with a beer. And they're both trying to bowl, and neither one of them can bowl. That's the type of pandering that people don't like.

LUNTZ: Well, you realize, when we get to November, they're going to be ice skating.

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