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Rove, Luntz, and Morris on "Hannity & Colmes"

Hannity & Colmes

COLMES: Welcome to HANNITY AND COLMES. I'm Alan Colmes. We get right to our top story. It's the eve of Super Tuesday II, just hours before Hillary Clinton's last stand. The fight is in Texas and Ohio, where the latest polls show the New York senator and Barack Obama in a dead heat in Texas and Hillary holding on to a slight lead in Ohio.

According to the latest Rasmussen poll out of Ohio, Hillary Clinton leads with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Obama's 44 percent. In Texas, a Rasmussen poll finds Barack Obama with statistically insignificant one point lead over Hillary Clinton. Obama's camp sees these numbers as good news, saying that Hillary Clinton needs to win by at least double digits in each state if she's to make up her deficit in the delegate math.

With us now Fox News contributor, former Bush adviser Karl Rove. Karl, welcome back. You do all the math. You know all these numbers. Which side is right in terms of what it takes for Hillary Clinton to stay in this race mathematically?

KARL ROVE, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Well, look, they need -- both sides are spinning here. If Hillary Clinton wins Ohio and Texas tomorrow night, even if she loses the delegate count in Texas, which I think is likely, she stopped Obama's momentum, and she does have room, albeit a heavy, a big hill to climb -- she does have room to still secure this nomination.

Neither side is going to win it without the super delegates, but, at the end of the day, somebody's going to be ahead in the elected delegates, and that's probably going to have a big impact on the super delegates.

COLMES: So you're not saying that she's got to win with 65 percent, as has been suggested, or that it's got to be not by one or two points, but by a large margin. You're staying, even if she wins at all, she stays in.

ROVE: I think she stays if she wins Ohio and she wins Texas in the popular vote, and Rhode Island in the popular vote and the delegate vote, because if she does that, then, in all likelihood, we're going to see the delegate gap narrow between the two, not a lot. But remember, with proportionality, nothing moves very rapidly.

We've been through nearly 30 some-odd contests, and there's a 100- delegate margin between the two of them. That's awful close.

COLMES: If you were advising -- and I know you don't advise Democrats -- but if you were advising Hillary Clinton, what do you advise her to do at this point?

ROVE: Well, she's actually in the last four or five days run a pretty disciplined campaign. She took a gamble with this particular ad she's been running in Texas that says basically it's a question of experience. Do you think he has the experience that would allow him to be commander in chief, and she's making also the argument of the Republicans are going to raise this issue in the general election. I'm raising it now so you can take it into consideration as you begin to think about who you want to be our party's nominee.

Now, that's not going to be enough between now and April 22nd. She's going to have to crystallize in people's minds why it is that she ought to be the president, their nominee for their party and therefore, their best hope for president, as opposed to him. Between now and the 22nd of April, there's a lot of days, but she's got to be focused and disciplined and appropriate.

At the beginning of last week, she was throwing these wild flailing movements, and it wasn't working for her. So she's got to be more disciplined like she's been in the last 72 to 96 hours.

COLMES: Specifically in terms of message, because if she stays in and there's that length of time between the next group of contests, is the message the red phone who answers it? Does she go beyond that, do something else? How does she keep the message and break through to change the momentum?

ROVE: She can't just -- she will have used this message for this particular group of primaries. She's now got to figure out how, before April 22nd, she refreshes and sharpens that message. My suspicion is, given her next contest is Pennsylvania, that we see a lot more about the economy and jobs. There's one contest next week, Mississippi, which everyone believes will be his. It would be nice for her to get a little bit more than people expected her to get in a southern state with a very large African-American population.

But if she's focused on the 22nd of April, she's going to have to find a way to refresh this message, and I think it's probably jobs.

SEAN HANNITY, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Hi, Karl. It's Sean. Welcome back to the program here. I'm dying to get your thoughts on this. She came out with this red phone ad and Barack Obama's response. What did you think of that?

ROVE: First, I thought the add was a little bit derivative, because it is clearly something reminiscent of what Roy Spencer, Texas campaign chairman, did for Walter Mondale when he was his ad maker in 1984. But on the other hand, I've been talking to a variety of friends in Texas over the last several days, and almost universally, they think this ad helped crystallize in peoples' minds her principal campaign theme against Barack Obama.

I've been there in Texas myself for three days the week prior, and I noticed that all of her surrogates, which are mostly elected Democratic officials -- I was in south Texas and San Antonio -- they were hammering Obama on the lack of experience, on the thinness of his record. And so I think between the surrogates, these elected officials, and the ad, she probably did herself some good.

Now, it did make the entire national message Iraq, because he very carefully came back and turned it into a question of judgment. But I think people who were already prone to be against her because of the war in Iraq had already made the decision to be against her.

HANNITY: There's reports out today that she's actually thinking about taking this all the way to the convention, and when we factor in proportional distribution of delegates, and the fact that she's now considering fighting for Florida and Michigan here, what does that do to the Democratic party in general?

ROVE: Well, look, there are three scenarios for this, and the one that most people hang on is that they think the Democrats are going to be ill-served by this process. They are going to get to the convention. They will be exhausted. They will blood each other. They will have bloodied each other up, and it will be ugly.

Now, I admit that's the conventional wisdom, and it might be true. But let me suggest there are two other alternatives. One alternative is that they go to the convention, and they have a close contest; at the convention it is resolved, and one candidate wins, and they get an enormous burst of positive publicity, particularly if it's Obama who comes out of that situation. And as a result, they end August on this very high note and drown out the Republican convention that comes the week following.

The third scenario is that they continue to battle until the convention or maybe not all the way to the convention but close to the convention, and as they battle, in essence, they're marginalizing McCain, who gets little of the attention. If you look at the coverage in the last week, for example, there have been a lot more column inches and a lot more time on the evening news that have been devoted to the Democratic contest than to McCain or the Republican contest.

HANNITY: If she tries to seat Florida and Michigan, as she has now said she would -- I'm trying to be as discerning and objective as I can, because she promised back in September that she wouldn't do this. Why do I look at this fundamentally as cheating and will most Americans see it that way, Karl?

ROVE: Look, there's no good answer to Michigan and Florida. On the one hand, if she attempts to get them seated, it's, as you say, running counter to what she may have said before and to the Democratic party rules. On the other hand, you know, the last time we only had 48 states at either the Republican or Democratic convention was 1956. And the fact that they would not allow two big battle ground states, Michigan and Florida, to be represented at the Democratic National Convention could be a huge blot on their party going into the fall election.

The Republicans saw this and said, we're going to sanction states that go outside the window, that is to say move their primaries too early, by cutting in half their delegates. But the Democrats gave them a very draconian, if you go outside the window, run your primary too early, you get zero delegates. I think that's put the party in an untenable situation.

HANNITY: All right, Karl Rove stay right there. When we come back, I want to ask you who might make a good VP for Senator McCain. We'll have more with Karl Rove after this break. Still to come, Dick Morris on Hillary's last stand. Plus Frank Luntz, he polls the voters just hours before the start of Super Tuesday II. So hear what the people are thinking tonight from both parties. That's straight ahead.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Don't you think it's time we had a president again who cared about you and was interested in making changes in your life? Who was leveling the playing field? She's your candidate. If you want a president who will never forget you, never, never become isolated from the White House, never believes that she's special because --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY: We continue with our friend, Fox News contributor Karl Rove. All right Karl, I never, ever doubt my good friend Bob Novak, and he's saying that you're suggesting that Mitt Romney would be a good VP choice for John McCain.

ROVE: Well, I talked with Bob recently, and we got to talking about the vice-presidential choice, and I shared with Bob, I've been traveling around the country recently -- in fact, I'm at the University of Pittsburgh where I'm a guest of the Pitt Program Council. And as I go around the country, I'm hearing a lot of conversation about VP, and I told Bob I was surprised by how often I was hearing the name Mitt Romney, and there seems to be some level of enthusiasm for the M and M ticket, McCain and Mitt.

HANNITY: All right, but is that Karl Rove's choice?

ROVE: I'm going to try to remain to be a little objective and detached. I'm just reporting to Bob what I heard. And I was in Florida, southwestern Florida on Friday night. I heard it there. I mentioned it tonight, I met with the Pitt college Republicans before the speech I'm going to make later on tonight. I met with the Pitt College Republicans earlier this evening. They asked me the question of what I was hearing about it. I shared with them the M and M ticket, and there was a lot of enthusiasm there for it.

But I'm hearing Pawlenty of Minnesota, Sanford of South Carolina, Burr of North Carolina, Purdue of Georgia. McCain has six months to make this decision. The Republican convention is not until the first week of September. So, unfortunately, he's going to have a lot of people suggesting names and giving him advice and a lot of time to look at this.

HANNITY: I personally think it would be a good choice. But I don't think anyone's going to be asking little old Sean Hannity's opinion here. Let me ask you --

ROVE: I'm hearing that name Hannity out there too, Sean. Are you willing to serve?

COLMES: Are you leaving this job?

HANNITY: That would be Alan Colmes' dream.

COLMES: Welcome to Colmes' America.

HANNITY: Colmes' America right here. I think it's funny. I want to talk to you in terms of strategy, Karl, because there's nobody better in this business than you are. We keep hearing about Barack Obama and his background now. This Rezko trial that's going on, the controversy over Barack Obama's pastor, the association with William Ayres. Do you think any of these controversies should be played up by the Republicans or is that frankly the job of people like me?

ROVE: Well, look, I do think that what really matters about Barack Obama from the Republican perspective ought to be his values, his views, his actions, his beliefs, the things that he would do as president. Obviously, this several decade -- almost two decade long relationship with Mr. Rezko is something that needs to be examined. I understand a lot of people in the Chicago media believe all of the questions have not been asked or answered, as Senator Obama believes. That's something that's going to play out.

But I think the Republican campaign would be best advised to keep its focus on those things that would come to bear if he were to be elected president, his values, his views, his actions, his philosophy. And clearly when the "National Journal" magazine finds him as the most liberal member of the Senate, there's a lot of material there that they can use. They ought to treat what he says and what he believes with seriousness and make that the focus.

COLMES: Being liberal is a good thing, I thought. Let me ask you this; the Tennessee Republican party put out a release called anti-Semites for Obama. They show that picture in the Somali garb. They used his middle name. Then they reissued it without the picture and without the middle name. Was the Tennessee Republican party responsible in doing that? Is that a good move?

ROVE: They were wise to take off the picture and wise to get rid of this fascination with his middle name. He had nothing to do with picking his middle name, and people who dwell on it are helping him, because it is a visible attempt to sort of depict him as something that he's not, a Muslim, and it back-fires. They were smart to get rid of it. They were wrong to have it in the first place.

Look, he has been associated with, in the past, political figures in Chicago who are controversial. Louis Farrakhan is not somebody that anybody in the mainstream of American politics should give the time of day to. And the fact that he danced around the question of whether he both renounced and rejected in the Democratic debate recently him was a problem. This is a very unpleasant guy, who says very ugly things about lots of different people, and is way out on the fringe of America and should be left there by any politician.

COLMES: Karl, he did renounce it. He did reject it. He used all those words. Even prior to the debate, he did the same thing. I don't know what more he has to say to make that acceptable to those that have a problem about any association.

KARL: Alan, I thought in the debate he didn't seize the moment to quickly -- in fact, he played a word game with it. Even the moderator came back to him and at that point, he sort of said well, OK, if you want, I'll reject and renounce it. The point is rather than -- it was a narrow one, I reject his anti-Semitic comments. Well, he has a lot of other reprehensible things to say. Rather than saying, I reject this one narrow part of him, he should have said, I reject what he stands for, and I don't associate myself with him in any way, shape, or form. And instead it was this sort of word game back and forth, having to be pushed by Senator Clinton and the moderator, and then it looked like a word game.

I'm just saying it would be better for him if he said Louis Farrakhan is not what I want to believe. That is not what I want to achieve when I bring people together in American.

COLMES: It seems like he did that. I don't know what more he has to do to make that association separate. But he used all those words.

ROVE: Well, he finally did. Good for him for doing that finally.

COLMES: We thank you for coming on tonight. Thanks for being here. Still to come, more on Hillary's land stand with Dick Morris. Plus we'll go live to Houston, where our own Frank Luntz is standing by with a brand- new focus group made up of Texas voters.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The question is no longer, is it a big enough state or is it a state with too many black people or is it a state that is in the Midwest or is it a caucus state? We've won states and we've won delegates.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)










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(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: John McCain has all but sealed up the Republican nomination, yet Mike Huckabee continues his improbable campaign. Our own Frank Luntz is on the ground in Houston, looking for answers from some Republican voters. What are they saying?

FRANK LUNTZ, FRANKLUNTZ.COM: now, you may say that John McCain has sewed up the nomination, but there are still people in this room who are backing Mike Huckabee. How many of you are supporting Mike Huckabee? Raise your hands.

I'm going to show an ad in a moment, but I've got to ask you. You know that John McCain is going to be the nominee. Why aren't you voting for him?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I am going to vote for him in the general election, but in the primary I want to send a message that, as a conservative, there's some things that he's dropping the ball on.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mike Huckabee represents Christians. He knows what we want.

LUNTZ: In the back.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Huckabee is the only one left to vote for. I can't vote for McCain.

LUNTZ: Why? Why can't you vote for McCain?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's not a conservative?

LUNTZ: So are you going to vote for a Democrat in the fall?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, not in the general election.

LUNTZ: What I want to do -- You guys can pull it up. We did an ad, we tested an ad moments before. We're using dials, if I can borrow one. They turn them on based on whether they approve of the message, and the higher that the dials go, the more favorable the response. Watch how positive Mike Huckabee's ad was for these Texans and why he's still getting 25 or 30 percent in most Texas polls. Let's take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Being independent is being Texas, not going along just to get along. It means standing for something so you don't fall for just anything. This election is about principle convictions, not political correctness. I'm the only candidate supporting the human life amendment, stopping illegal immigration with a real border security plan and a fair tax, which kills the IRS before it kills even more American businesses.

I'm Mike Huckabee, and I approve this message because it's time to stand up and be counted, not lie down and be conquered.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: That is a powerful response. It is incredibly favorable. What is it about that ad that you reacted so favorably to?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's consistent, and I trust him. He always has the same message.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Absolutely, the man is, I think, a very positive role model also. He's had a wonderful career helping people.

LUNTZ: Matt, I got to ask you a question, how old are you?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Eighteen.

LUNTZ: You're 18. Why are you the only 18-year-old in America not voting for Barack Obama?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think for myself.

LUNTZ: Aren't most of your friends voting for Obama?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, actually.

LUNTZ: What makes you different?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I know the issues. I can make a decision on issue-based voting, instead of voting on sound bites about change and hope or --

LUNTZ: To you, it's just sound bites?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: From Obama, yes.

LUNTZ: Alan, you've got a question.

COLMES: For that gentlemen you're talking to, what does John McCain stand for that he is saying is issue based, doesn't think Obama has any issues? What issue is he voting on?

LUNTZ: What's the most important issue for you as an 18-year-old?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: National security.

LUNTZ: And why do you think McCain is better than Obama on national history?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: His foreign policy experience, he's a war hero, he was for the surge in the Iraq war. He knows what he is doing. And Obama wants to pull out immediately and doesn't know the consequences.

LUNTZ: We have one person here, when I asked you before -- you were considering voting for Obama in the general election. Tell me why.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't trust McCain and at least Obama would bring a sense of optimism. I do enjoy hearing Obama speak.

LUNTZ: Would anybody else consider him? Nobody.

Sean, you got a question.

HANNITY: Frank, welcome. We appreciate it. By the way, another great group here. I got to tell you, I agree with a lot of what they said here. I'm just curious, we brought this up with Karl Rove. Who would they most like to see John McCain choose as their vice-president?

LUNTZ: Funny you should ask that. How many of you would most want them to choose Mike Huckabee? Raise your hands? A bunch of you. How about Duncan Hunter? How about Romney?

How many of you said Mitt Romney? You guys had a very interesting choice. Who was it?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Bobby Jindal from Louisiana.

LUNTZ: Why do you like him so much?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He's young. He's articulate. He's able to express himself. He's got that hype going.

LUNTZ: Who is your choice?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Michael Steele.

LUNTZ: You think he's qualified enough?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Absolutely. He's fabulous. He's articulate. He's great on social issues and he's a fiscal conservative.

LUNTZ: How many of you believe John McCain is going to win some.

You actually believe he's going to win. So you don't believe the polls? Bob, why?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's got all the issues down for us. I mean --

LUNTZ: Does he?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No.

LUNTZ: Sean, watch this response? In the fall, are you voting for John McCain or against the Democrats?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Against the Democrats?

LUNTZ: How many of you are voting for John McCain? Raise your hands? How many are voting against the Democrat.

Look at this. Why against the Democrat?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Because both of them are so liberal and so anti- conservative.

LUNTZ: Why not for McCain, why against the Democrat?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I am for McCain, but more for against the Democrats. It's national security. We've got to have national security.

LUNTZ: Let me tell you something, people don't win if there's just an anti-vote. So few of you are voting pro-McCain. How can he fix it?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He needs to appeal to his conservative base.

LUNTZ: You guys agree with that?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.

LUNTZ: You want to say something to Sean real quick?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We love you, Sean!

HANNITY: They're all great Americans. That is a great group. They'll raise taxes, nationalize health care, retreat in Iraq.

COLMES: Campaign speech.

HANNITY: This audience has it right, Frank. Thank you. We'll see you in a bit, buddy. Coming up, we'll have more with Frank Luntz and his live focus group. But still to come tonight, after 11 straight losses, have Americans given up on Hillary Clinton? Well, Clinton insider Dick Morris on the New York senator's moment of truth. Plus famous feminist Gloria Steinem attacks John McCain on his war hero status, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)










(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm just so happy to be in New York, even for a few hours. Tonight I just want to relax, have fun, not worry about the campaign.

AMY POEHLER, CAST MEMBER, NBC'S "SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE": So no politics?

CLINTON: No politics, but I would like to take this opportunity to say to all Americans, be they from the great state of Ohio or Texas, Rhode Island or Vermont, Pennsylvania or any of the other states, live from New York, it is Saturday night!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY: That was Hillary Clinton, making a surprise appearance on "Saturday Night Live" just days before Super Tuesday part two.

Joining us now with more analysis and her do-or-die moment, former Clinton advisor, Dick Morris. By the way, to keep up to date with the presidential race and get Dick's column and newsletter for free, log onto DickMorris.com.

Dick, welcome back to the program. In the final moments here, what we are seeing is a tightening in the polls. And in both in Texas and Ohio. It seems to me that maybe some of this is based on the fact that there's more scrutiny of Barack Obama. What are your thoughts?

DICK MORRIS, FORMER CLINTON ADVISOR: I think you're right. I think that this is not likely to be Hillary's last stand. It's likely to be her next stand.

I said back in December that Hillary has to lose in order to have a chance of winning. What I meant by that is that Hillary needs to go through a process where people look at Barack Obama and they stop looking at Hillary, and we stop questioning her experience and start questioning his. And I think that really is happening now. You've seen Ohio move five or six points toward Hillary. You've seen Texas go from a six or seven Obama lead to only a tiny Obama lead.

And what's going to happen, I think, is that if Hillary can win some of these primaries tomorrow. It will help her a little bit in the delegate count, not a lot, because they're proportional representation. But it will give a moral case for the super delegates to begin to move toward Hillary.

HANNITY: But when we add to that, Dick, the fact that -- that she still is fighting to seat Florida and Michigan delegates, as we've been talking about earlier here. I'm not really sure -- I mean, the delegate count is what it is. We have proportional distribution here.

Can she make a comeback? And are people looking at Barack Obama with more scrutiny and saying that they have doubts about him at this point?

MORRIS: It's important to understand that in the Democratic primary you have proportional representation of people who are elected. But the super delegates have one vote each, and they can switch it as they wish. So you have 3,400 pledged delegates. Let's say a guy wins that by ten points. It gives him 340-vote margin. The 800 super delegates can blow that off.

So if Hillary can win some of the later primaries, she could make the case that the super delegates can vote for her.

Now, on Michigan and Florida, what I think is going to happen is that I think this is going to happen is I think they're going to have new primaries. And I think those primaries, more than any other, would decide the next nominee.

The irony of it is these states moved their primaries up to have an impact, they didn't have an impact. But now they're going to be punished and have them at the end, and they'll have a huge impact.

HANNITY: Well, they'll have -- I brought this question up earlier here with Karl Rove. And that is, you know, Hillary Clinton agreed with what the DNC had decided, that if Michigan and Florida moved their dates up, that they had all agreed that they would not be seated. Now Hillary -- and Hillary agreed to that.

And now she's saying, in fact, "You know what? I want to tell my delegates to vote to seat these delegates, because the people of Florida and Michigan, they need representation here."

Why in my mind is that moving the goal line, changing the rules in the middle of the game? You know, I -- why aren't more people looking at it, as I am, as cheating?

MORRIS: Well, I think that the Hillary position is untenable, that you should seat the delegates from a primary that nobody thought counted. In Michigan, particularly, the others weren't even on the ballot.

But the other position, which is that they should be excluded, is equally untenable. There -- those are important states.

HANNITY: That's what they agreed to.

MORRIS: So I think what's going to happen, particularly in light of Charlie Crist's request that you have a do-over, the Florida governor, is I think you're going to have a Florida and a Michigan primary, and I think that may be the most significant contest of all.

COLMES: And Dick, given the fact that, as you just pointed out, Charlie Crist is now saying -- the governor of Florida is saying he'd be open to having a do-over in Florida, does that let Hillary off the hook from those who would accuse her of, quote unquote, "cheating" when the governor of Florida says, "Hey, I want my state counted"?

MORRIS: Yes, it would, and I think that Hillary's likely to get -- I think that they're likely to have a do-over.

The interesting thing here is that the super delegates are not about to defy the will of the people. But, if the will of the people collectively over a four-month period, is for Obama but in the recent primaries, in Ohio and Texas and Rhode Island and maybe Pennsylvania and maybe Indiana, Hillary can demonstrate that she -- that she's winning them, then the super delegates can say, "We're not going to be bound by votes that were cast in February. We're going to look at votes that were cast in April."

And particularly if you have a do-over in Michigan and Florida, that could decide how the super delegates vote.

COLMES: Dick, last week on this show, you were predicting that Hillary would probably lose Ohio, lose Texas. Are you now rethinking that, given what's happened over the last few days?

MORRIS: Yes, yes. I mean, you can't go in the face of the poll numbers. Both on a national level and in those two states, Hillary has begun to come back. And what's happening is people are looking at Obama and saying, is he really ready to be president?

Now, I believe that in Texas the Republicans will come to the rescue and vote in the Democratic primary and defeat Hillary. But I think it's very possible that she carries Ohio and Rhode Island and, in effect, makes a moral comeback, which will freeze the super delegates.

Then it's going to come down to Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina, and then Florida and Michigan.

COLMES: All right. Let's hope Republicans vote for Republicans, not Democrats who they don't want to see in office. But thank you very much, Dick, for being with us.


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