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March 28, 2008

Panel Reviews Calls to End the Race

FOX News Special Report With Brit Hume

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOWARD DEAN, CHAIRMAN OF THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE: Super delegates have already been weighing in. I think there is 800 of them, and 450 have already said who they are for. I would like the other 350 to say who they are for at some point between now and the first of July, so we don't have to take it to the convention.

Somebody is going to lose the race with 49.8 percent of the vote, and that person has got to pull their supporters in behind the nominee.

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY, (D) VERMONT: There is no way that senator Clinton is going to win enough delegates to get the nomination. She ought to withdraw, and she ought to be backing Senator Obama.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: Well, there you see DNC Chairman Howard Dean today saying he hopes all of this nomination battle on the Democratic side will be wrapped up by July 1st. And then you heard Senator Patrick Leahy calling for Hillary Clinton to drop out of this race.

So what about that? Is that possible? Is it mathematically possible? Is it possible with the Clintons that this is wrapped up before the convention?

Some analytical observations about all of this from Bill Sammon, Senior White House Correspondent of "The Washington Examiner," Mort Kondracke, Executive Editor of "Roll Call," and Nina Easton, Washington Bureau Chief of "Fortune" Magazine, FOX News contributors all.

Nina, let's start with you. You heard Howard Dean today--is it possible, conceivable, that the Democratic nomination battle will be over July 1st?

NINA EASTON, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, "FORTUNE MAGAZINE": He sure would like that to happen, because, let me tell you, if it goes to the convention, which is ten week before the election, and there is a bloodbath, and he's scared to death of that happening, that's just not going to be good for the Democratic Party.

Conventions are built so the Party comes out with a balance. We all remember the balance factor that comes out. We saw that in 2004.

It's also the starting gate of a general election campaign, the official starting gate. They want to come out of that strong.

Will this be resolved by July 1st? I think you're seeing a lot of behind the scenes--this is the beginning--indication that there is behind the scenes maneuvering as well as these public statements.

Dean has spoken to people like Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, Jesse Jackson, some of these major party figures behind the scenes to see if they can figure out some way to come to terms with this.

By the way, I think that the prospect of Hillary Clinton dropping out is about as likely as when Dick Durbin said she should drop out, and then she just had this overwhelming performance in Texas and Ohio. We're sort of seeing deja vu here.

BAIER: Let's take a quick listen to what Hillary Clinton said about all this today on the campaign trail.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, (D) NEW YORK: There are some people who are saying, you know, we really ought to end this primary. We just ought to shut it down and --

CROWD NOISE

CLINTON: There was a poll the other day that said 22 percent of Democrats wanted me to drop out, and 22 percent wanted Senator Obama to drop out, and 62 percent said let people vote until we finally know what the outcome is!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: So, Mort, listening to that today, and you heard her interview with Greta Van Susteren earlier, there's really not a chance she is dropping out, is there?

MORT KONDRAKE, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, "ROLL CALL": She is not going to get out until she has to be carried out. And I would say that she would go to the convention and try to get delegates in Michigan and Florida seated if she possibly could, with a potential change in the rules.

The only way I can see out of this that I can see, since there is not going to be a re-do in Michigan or Florida, is for somebody, and Phil Gretason, the governor of Tennessee is trying to organize this, is a pre- convention of the super delegates--get them all together and have them decide.

They're going to decide anyway. The idea that this is going to get decided on the basis of the pledged delegates is over. So the super delegates are going to decide, and they may as well get together and do it, if they can.

BILL SAMMON, SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, WASHINGTON EXAMINER: Everyone is talking as if resolving this by July 1st is going to solve all the Democrats' problems.

July 1st is more than three months away. We are having daily clawing each other's eye out civil war on the Democratic side. It's causing significant damage on a day-to-day basis.

Think about this. In the last month since John McCain clinched the Republican nomination, look at the damage that has been done since March 4, this very month. You have sniper-gate, you have pastor-gate; you have Pelosi and Hillary at each other's throats. You've got the polls showing that a lot of Democrats would either vote for McCain or stay at home.

Damage is being done. Going another 95 days at this is hardly a solution. I think they are going to have to come up with something quicker than that.

EASTON: You do have to go through, and the primary season ends June. You do have to run out of the primary season--

EASTON: You have at least one month. You have to go to April 22. And assuming Hillary wins--if Hillary loses, conceivably it could be over in a month. So she's probably going to win. So you probably go a couple months, go into June.

But I still think this thing could go five months until August convention, and then all bets are off.

BAIER: You mentioned the House Speaker and what she said about super delegates not overturning the will of the people. Here is what her spokesperson put out, saying "The Speaker believes it would do great harm to the Democratic Party if super delegates are perceived to overturn the will of the voters. This has been her position throughout this primary season, regardless of who is ahead at any particular point in delegates or votes."

Now, when you look at the popular vote, is there a way for Hillary Clinton to make the case that if she possibly wins the popular vote that she is not overturning the will of the voters, even though she might not win in the delegate votes?

SAMMON: Of course that is what she would argue. Each side will argue whatever moral case they possibly can.

And if Obama is--suppose he's 100,000 votes behind out of all of this, but he's 100 votes ahead in delegates--it's possible. Each of them has a claim. And so I think that the super delegate convention seems to me the only option to avoid a bloodbath at the convention.

BAIER: Really quickly, if we can put up the numbers on the Florida and Michigan included in the popular vote, Hillary Clinton still trails by a little bit more than 200,000 votes.

Nina, is there a way she can close this gap and take the lead in the popular vote even though she is not leading in the delegate vote?

EASTON: There is always a way. You could imagine she could close that. But it is striking to me that if you include Michigan and Florida, which she had pinned her hopes on, she is still losing the popular vote. I mean, that's not good for Hillary Clinton.

SAMMON: She can't catch him in the delegates, she probably can't catch him in the popular vote. I think what she is holding out for is a self-destruction by Barack Obama in the interim. That is the only thing, I think, that could save Hillary Clinton.

BAIER: All right, that's it for this topic. When we come back with the panel, while the Democrats fight, Republican John McCain launches his general election campaign. But could recent events in Iraq hurt his chances? We'll take a look. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And what must we believe about our president? What does he think? Where has he been? Has he walked the walk?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What is your rank?

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Lieutenant Commander in the Navy.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And your official number?

MCCAIN: 624787.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: John McCain: the American president Americans have been waiting for.

MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: Well that is a new ad that started running today in New Mexico, John McCain putting out that ad, a biography ad. He is starting a biography tour, "Service to America" tour next week.

In response to that, the Democratic National Committee Chair Howard Dean had this to say:

"While we honor McCain's military service, the fact is Americans want a real leader who offers real solutions, not a blatant opportunist who doesn't understand the economy and is promising to keep our troops in Iraq for 100 years."

We're back with our panel. Bill, the back and forth over this add-- first of all, is it effective, and what about this tour? Can McCain get back in the spotlight despite this back and forth with Democrats?

SAMMON: I think it is an effective ad. Look at the difference in the images of the candidates that are out there right now. You have McCain, the heroic, patriotic war hero, prisoner of war.

You've got Hillary Clinton making up a story about sniper fire in a war zone. And you've got Barack Obama still trying to detach himself from the pastor-gate mess. He was asked about it today on "The View." This thing isn't going away.

It is very effective. I think McCain--we talked earlier about the Democrats would like to launch their general election at some point this summer. John McCain is launching his general election now. This is the opening volley in his general election strategy.

He is going to do this biography tour, and flush out--everybody knows that McCain was a prisoner of war and they don't know that much more about him--he has a really interesting personal story.

And this allows him to define himself early in the campaign while the two Democrats are negatively defining each other, which is, by the way, normally what a Republican does at this stage. The Republican has the luxury of defining themselves in this positive, heroic sense. I think it is a big advantage to McCain this week.

KONDRAKE: I thought the byte of him as a prisoner of war was effective, and that people will naturally want to know about it, and I can understand why the McCain campaign would want them to see it.

The rest of the ad--a bunch of questions remind me of Admiral Stockdale: "Who am I, and why am I here?" It was just a bunch of questions. I didn't think it was particularly effective.

It's fine for McCain to talk about who he is and where he has been and have this identification tour. It's not going to get as much publicity as the Democrats banging away at each other. But he will be covered, obviously, because he is the Republican nominee.

I still say McCain's number one job is to learn and teach economics. And it's got to happen over and over again to convince people that he will do something different from what George Bush did to get us in this current mess.

BAIER: Nina, the situation in Iraq has been volatile over the last week, especially with Muqtada al-Sadr and the crackdown by the Iraqis on the Shiite militia. And John McCain clearly has pinned a lot on the U.S. troop surge.

If the situation in Iraq starts to deteriorate further, does that really hurt his campaign?

EASTON: Of course it hurts his campaign, and he's known that all along. That's always been the case with John McCain. His candidacy was hurt last summer when things really looked bad in Iran, early in the primary season, and it came back as things in Iraq got better. So of course that's going to affect him.

I have to agree with Mort on this ad and his strategy moving forward. His biography has always been his strength. I mean, he's got a very compelling biography.

But this is a change election. People want change. And the economy has, at this point, superseded Iraq as the most important thing. And if Iraq comes back, it's because bad things are happening in Iraq. It's not going to top the agenda because good things are happening.

So I think he's got to define himself more as a change agent and move forward, and he has to address economic issues. He's got to address, as he did in his foreign policy speech--not sort of did, he did very much in his foreign policy speech earlier this week--that he will take a somewhat different approach on foreign policy matters than the White House.

SAMMON: So if things go badly in Iraq that hurts McCain, but if they go well in Iraq in doesn't help him. I don't buy that.

And I also don't buy this notion that McCain was hurt last summer when things went badly in Iraq. The only people who were still sticking with him last summer when things went back with Iraq were people who supported the president's Iraq policy.

Things went bad with McCain because conservatives got fed up with him disagreeing with them on immigration and campaign finance reform and tax cuts and every other thing.

Now Iraq could hurt him in the general election, but I don't think it hurt him that much in the primary because that's when conservatives were voting.

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