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February 12, 2008

Rove & Card Analyze Potomac Primary

Hannity & Colmes

SEAN HANNITY, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Welcome to a special edition of HANNITY AND COLMES, Potomac Primary night. At this hour, Fox News has projected that Barack Obama is in fact the winner of the Democratic Party primary in the Commonwealth of Virginia. On the Republican side in Virginia, it was a much closer race, but Fox News is still projecting that Senator John McCain has pulled out a victory over Mike Huckabee.

In Maryland, a judge has ordered that the polls remain open until 9:30 Eastern because of bad weather. We will have a projection for you as soon as we can, so stay with the Fox News Channel.

Now, we also have complete coverage tonight. In just a few minutes, our own Kirsten powers will join with us surprising numbers about Bill Clinton's eroding support among women. Plus, Barack Obama is already taking shots at Senator McCain. We'll play you the tape. But first, we start tonight with our own Fox News Analyst -- we call him the architect -- Karl Rove is with us. By the way, this TV thing is natural for you. You are doing great.

KARL ROVE, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Thanks.

HANNITY: I hope you're liking it.

ALAN COLMES, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: How you doing, Carl?

HANNITY: We start with the Republican side, Karl, because there's interesting differences when you look at the Virginia exit polls and the Maryland exit polls. For example, Huckabee did well in Virginia among conservatives. But in the Maryland primary, Senator McCain did better among conservatives. What do you think is happening?

ROVE: It's a different kind of conservative. Maryland is more northeast than it is south. You go -- southwestern Virginia is halfway to the Mississippi River. It's a very deep south when you get far south in Virginia. Maryland is a much more northeastern state. So the definition of what constitutes conservative in Maryland and what constitutes it in some parts of Virginia are awfully different.

HANNITY: By the way, I've got to tell you, we are very proud that Karl Rove has brought his blackboard with him tonight and hopefully he will be using that in a little bit.

Let me go to the Democratic side. If we go back to Super Tuesday, where Barack Obama won 13 states to Hillary's eight states. He won the delegate count at the end of the day. He won all of these four primaries over the weekend, three primaries tonight. We have got a 20 to eight margin, financial momentum and we also have an enthusiasm momentum and that is that -- look at the crowds and -- you know, that he has drawn around the country. What do you make of it?

ROVE: Look, again, because they have rules of proportionality it means all of these big victories -- going in tonight, he was 23 delegates down. Coming out of tonight, he may be 27 or 28 or 29 delegates up. Which is not a lot in a contest as big as this one is.

HANNITY: By the way, Karl, let me interrupt you one second. That is Hillary. She is right now in El Paso, Texas and when her remarks begin we will bring them to you right here on the Fox News Channel. Do you think the momentum shift, as we come out of this now 20 to eight states, they are looking to March 4th when they have Texas and they have Ohio, and obviously Vermont and Rhode Island, if my memory serves me right. I think Barack Obama could win Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island. And that would offset Texas, wouldn't it?

ROVE: Look, there is a lot of momentum going into this March 4th primary behind Obama if tonight plays out like it looks like it's going to play out. And then I don't know what's going to happen on March 4th, whether she is going to be able to keep Texas in her camp. I mean, first of all, momentum matters everywhere. Once you get a head of steam it requires something to change it and I'm not certain what I see necessarily changing it.

In Texas, for example, a very respected political family in San Antonio is the Gonzalez family. It was the first Hispanic Congressman from San Antonio. His son is now in Congress. Charlie Gonzales endorsed Barack Obama. That's big. That's really big.

HANNITY: If we look back now, and I guess everything is 20/20 hindsight, Karl, do you see any fundamental mistakes they have made? I know there's been a lot made of the comments of Bill Clinton, the race issue that has come up. As we look at the exit poll data tonight, once again, both in Maryland and the state of Virginia, we see a huge racial divide. Again, it's nearly 90 to 10 African-Americans going for Barack Obama. Was that caused by the Clintons? Any other mistakes you see?

ROVE: I think it was caused by the affirmative desire of African- Americans to see one of their own nominated for president. He is an historic figure. I think, looking back -- and, look, hindsight is incredibly easy to do. But he clearly prepared for the caucus states and she didn't.

Take, for example, New Hampshire. New Hampshire has 22 Democrat delegates; 290,000 people turned out to vote. So, for every delegate, there were 12,000-plus people voting. In Idaho there were 18 delegates and for every delegate there were roughly 1,400 people who participated in the primary. Literally less than 20,000 people participated and got almost as many delegates as a state that had 290,000 people vote in the caucus -- or in the primary.

Everywhere they had a caucus like that, he was well-prepared and well organized and took advantage of it.

HANNITY: Let me ask you, you have run campaigns. You've been in the midst of them. And I assume you probably lose some sense of objectivity and discernment here. You have the ability to stand back a bit for both, say, Mike Huckabee, who you used your blackboard on the other night -- he needs 85 percent of the delegates.

ROVE: Eighty three.

HANNITY: I've got to be precise. If you were to offer any advice at this point to either Mike Huckabee or to Hillary Clinton, who has clearly fallen behind here, what would you tell them?

ROVE: Well, Huckabee, look, tonight he is not going to have a good night. There is going to be 113 delegates elected. In all likelihood, he is going to get maybe one or two of them, maybe zero. So he's going -- then Wisconsin is not going to be good territory for Mike Huckabee. Texas will be good territory for him and some parts of Ohio will generate some votes for him.

He is entitled to run. Nobody gets to tell him to get out except his wife. But the math is very difficult for him. And the question is going to be at some point, does he say I'm doing myself a disservice by staying in.

HANNITY: Right. There you can see in Virginia, Senator McCain the projected winner, 48 percent to 43 percent at this particular point here. Interesting divide, as I mentioned earlier, in terms of the Maryland exit polls and the Virginia exit polls. One of the issues that came up was talk radio, of which, you know, I play a small little part.

ROVE: I have heard that.

HANNITY: It apparently did have an impact with voters in some way. That goes to the question of Senator McCain's relationship with conservatives.

ROVE: Right.

HANNITY: I thought Jack Kemp wrote a very compelling piece today appealing to talk radio host to look at the big picture. What do you think about -- what could Senator McCain do to reach out to maybe some conservatives who have issues with him?

ROVE: First of all, he has to do this on an on-going basis. He doesn't need -- there is no magic formula that is going to get people in his camp overnight. He will simply have to go out there and say what he believes and talk about what he thinks is important in a way that over time people will be reassured. Look, this guy has consolidated most Republicans and most conservatives. In the latest Fox poll, he had 80 percent of Republicans voting for him against Obama, 10 percent of the Republicans were breaking for Obama, but 18 percent of Democrats went for McCain and only 74 percent of Democrats remained with Obama.

So he has consolidated better than Obama or Senator Clinton have. But, it is a reassurance over time. People say, OK, we're going to go for you. You have got character. You are a hero. We understand where you are coming from on Iraq. We have heard a little bit about you on spending. We know about the Straight Talk Express. But what are you going to do over time to make me feel really comfortable with being for you.

COLMES: By the way, you're looking at a picture also of Hillary Clinton about to speak in El Paso, Texas. We will bring it to you as soon as it occurs. Talking about talk radio, it seemed like it played more of a role in Virginia than in Maryland, where apparently a third a the voters in Maryland listen frequently to conservative talk radio. A much larger percentage in Virginia. So that seemed to have much more of an impact in Virginia for some reason. I wonder why that would be?

ROVE: First of all, it's the demographics of the state. Most of Maryland, the Republicans are in a narrow corridor. They're in the eastern shore and western Maryland. Most of them are physically in between a corridor between Baltimore and Washington. It's not like Virginia, where you listen to radio as you drive from Roanoke to your job or driving up and down the --

COLMES: The more time you listen, the more poisonous it is.

ROVE: The more time, the more influenced you are.

COLMES: Depends who you are listening to. Let me ask you about -- you said there are two kinds of conservatives and there is the people who voted in Virginia. There's another kind of conservative that vote in a different part of Virginia, another kind of conservative that votes in Maryland. Which is the conservative that most represents those that will vote in the general election in the United States, generally?

ROVE: I'm not certain I understand that question.

COLMES: You are saying there are two kinds of conservatives.

ROVE: I'm just saying the Maryland conservatives have a slightly different look on life than do -- it's the difference between somebody who is a conservative in Pennsylvania and a conservative who lives in South Carolina. It's the difference between a liberal in Texas and a liberal in New York. They have a different set of agenda and slightly different world view.

COLMES: Liberal in Texas is known as a Republican. But which is more likely to be the Republican who votes in a general election and is the kind of conservative that McCain needs? Which kind is that?

ROVE: Let me come back to that. Tonight, McCain is doing well in Virginia in three place, two that he has done well before. In 2000, he did well in the tide water, where there are a lot of retired military. He is doing well in northern Virginia, which is where he did well eight years ago.

Tonight, he is doing very well in the Republican suburbs of Richmond, where he did not do well eight years ago, and where -- you know, the suburbs and the exurbs, and that's where any Republican needs to do well.

COLMES: Is that an indication that conservatives are starting to embrace John McCain in a way that they haven't perhaps up until now.

ROVE: Yes, I look at the election returns in the districts where George Bush beat John McCain handily and where tonight John McCain is beating Mike Huckabee handily.

COLMES: Sounds like Hillary Clinton is about to speak. As soon as she actually goes up to the podium and does speak. In fact we're going to bring it to you. It looks like it's going to happen just about now. Here is Hillary Clinton speaking to a crowd in El Paso, Texas as she looks toward the Texas primary coming up down the road. Hillary Clinton just about to address this crowd.

HANNITY: Karl, let me ask one question before we get to her, is she spoiling into a Rudy Giuliani strategy by sort of having a firewall in Texas and Ohio? Is that risky considering the momentum factor?

ROVE: I don't think she has a choice. Wisconsin is not going to be - - the Wisconsin primary is not going to be good for her. And the Hawaii Caucuses, once again, is not going to be hospitable to her.

COLMES: She has to win those two states Ohio and Texas?

ROVE: She does have connections to these two states. Remember, she and her husband campaigned for George McGovern in the state. They've got an awful lot of friends here. The question is whether the state they campaigned in for McGovern is the state --

COLMES: Here is Hillary Clinton is about to address this crowd in El Paso.

SEN HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: -- this extended family, because It is family. I am proud to be part of the El Paso, Texas family starting right now. There are so many people that have come tonight and who have helped make this extraordinary event possible. I want to thank Rick and Louie Balanos (ph). They are part of Texas Veterans for Hillary and the Balanos family is so well known because of their service to our country, and I am honored to have them supporting me. Thank you.

I want to thank my old friend Alicia Shacone (ph), the former county judge. The U-TEP Young Democrats for hosting me tonight. Norma Florez Fisher (ph), Danny Anchando (ph), Aaron Rosas (ph), Senator Elliott Shaply (ph).

I want to thank the students and staff of the University and I want to thank my huge Texas-sized steering committee.

Well, I can't think of any better place to start our campaign for Texas than right here in El Paso. And I am -- I am honored to be an honorary miner. We're going to sweep across Texas in the next three weeks, bringing our message about what we need in America, the kind of president that will be required on day one to be commander and chief, to turn the economy around. I'm tested; I'm ready; let's make it happen.

You know, there is a great saying in Texas. You've all heard it. All hat and no cattle. Well, after seven years of George Bush --

COLMES: Hillary Clinton in El Paso, Texas tonight, beginning her Texas campaign. As we head toward the Texas primary, we are talking to Karl Rove. We were discussing about the rules in Texas. Are they different than the rules elsewhere and how does that favor each candidate?

ROVE: They are different. First of all, they apportion the delegates by state Senate district. We've got 31 state senators. We've got 33 members of Congress. But the Democrats have a very odd rule that says we are going to take into account -- We are not going to apportion an equal number of delegates to each Senate district. We will allocate a number based on how Democratic those districts are. We're not going to just look at the percentage of the votes the Democrats get in the district. We're going to look at the number of votes a Democrat gets in the district.

So you have these Latino state senate districts in South Texas that give an enormous percentage to Democrats but have a low turnout. They have half as many delegates as equally Democrat but larger voting districts, African-American districts in Dallas and Houston. Hillary Clinton could carry the Latino vote, get 60 or 70 percent of the vote, and get half as many delegates as Obama if Obama was carrying those African-American districts by same percentage.

HANNITY: Let me then advance this a little bit further here, if we can. We're talking about the Texas firewall, the Ohio firewall that she is setting up for herself, sort of similar to what Rudy Giuliani did in the state of Florida. Let me ask you about the super delegates and, more importantly, the battle, that this may actually go to the convention, and states like Michigan and Florida, where they are not seating these delegates and -- could you see a potential where Hillary sues to get them seated?

ROVE: Well, I think it would be an utter disaster if they had a convention with no representation from two of the largest battleground states in the country, Michigan and Florida. Now, let me say one thing about firewalls. Sometimes firewalls work. So I don't want to count her out. I just want to say that the rules in Texas are going to be complicated and create problems for her, even if the strength there is she has to deliver.

But, no, look, this is going to -- in all likelihood, unless one of them gives up, this is going to go all the way to the convention. Again, it goes back to the proportionality of the delegates.

HANNITY: Last question, if you look at the exit polls tonight, there is one thing that was very clear, there is a lot of resentment in these two camps. When they asked the question, if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, will you be satisfied? Barack Obama supporters overwhelmingly, no. If Obama gets it, Clinton supporters overwhelmingly dissatisfied -- if Barack Obama gets it. There is a lot of contention here between the two camps.

ROVE: Yes. That's what happens in primaries, no matter what the good intentions of the candidates are. By the end of the primary, you end up not liking the other guy and so do your supporters. They don't like them either.

HANNITY: Do you think ultimately they team up?

ROVE: I doubt it.

HANNITY: Interesting. Karl Rove, the architect, thanks for being with us. At this hour, by the way, we are waiting results from Maryland, as a judge has ruled that polling stations will stay open until 9:30 eastern. This is due to bad weather conditions. We will continue to follow that story.

After the break, the big story tomorrow could be how Hillary Clinton fared with women. When we come back, our own Kirsten Powers is here. She will give us analysis as this special election edition of HANNITY AND COLMES continues.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: The polls in Maryland have been extended to 9:30. We will be giving you an update on it at the bottom of the hour. Fresh off tonight's big night and a four state victory this past weekend, Barack Obama is not only making a dent in Clinton's delegate lead, he is getting some support among the one group Hillary Clinton counted upon, female voters. Joining us now is Fox News political analyst Kirsten Powers. What do those numbers look like in terms of where Barack is making in-roads, where perhaps, in the past, he hasn't been as successful with certain demographics.

KIRSTEN POWERS, FOX NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST: One of the thing that we're talking about is the fact that she appears to not to be doing as well with women as she was in the beginning. I think that's true. Her numbers have declined in over all women since the beginning. A lot of though, when you really start looking at it, is because so many black women have moved to Barack Obama. He's so overwhelmingly winning the black vote. You have to look at the white women voters. She's still winning them.

COLMES: Is she doing as well with white women, or are some white women also going to Barack Obama? Exactly who is voting? Are independents, for example, having an affect here who might not otherwise vote?

POWERS: Virginia and Maryland are open primaries. You have a lot of independents and you have some Republicans, not a ton of Republicans, crossing over. Those people overwhelmingly go to Obama. So you are seeing those people moving to Obama. Hillary is still doing pretty well among white Democrats.

But the problem is she is losing in other areas. I think that's where you see that overall number.

COLMES: I wonder how indicative this is of what will happen in Ohio and Texas, given the fact that we have so many Republicans disenchanted with their own candidates, especially the independents, they may say, I'm going to vote in the Democrat primary --

POWERS: I think that's right. I don't think they'll skew it. I think Obama is actually legitimately attracting a lot of independents. You are seeing when they have a choice, they want to go and vote for Barack Obama. The whole idea of this -- the idea that people go and try to skew the election, it's a little bit of a mess. It's not like a mass movement.

COLMES: Based on what we are seeing, and in terms of what we're seeing in terms of point spread, to use a sports analogy, does that tell us anything about the way things are shaping up in Texas and Ohio, and points forward.

POWERS: I think it's hard to know. We have been talking a lot about momentum and whether or not it's actually going to catch on this time, that we have seen over and over that the momentum moves and then it stops and then it reverses. Now we have Barack Obama just really, boom, boom, boom, state after state after state. Even though we knew he was going to win them, there is a real sense of mow momentum. We have to see how it's going to play out. Or is it going to be more of a fresh start?

COLMES: If you look at the numbers here, in terms of the exit polls, one of the interesting pieces that I saw was that those who decided in the last day decided for Hillary Clinton. Does that tell you anything?

POWERS: That's been pretty consistent. That was true on February 5th. I think the Clinton campaign argued on February 5th, because that was happening, it showed she had momentum. I think we can see that wasn't the really case.

COLMES: That doesn't mean anything in terms of going forward?

POWERS: I mean, I think each state is so distinct. And so it's hard to know. Obama really performs well in the smaller states. He performs well in the caucus states. That's why people have said, oh, when we look at these states coming up, that she's sort of -- her March 4th firewall, that there are states that are more hospitable to a Hillary Clinton candidacy.

HANNITY: Kirsten, let's go over these numbers in a little bit more detail here. If you look overall in Maryland, male voters, 67 percent of men go to Barack Obama, 59 percent of women. You know, it's very close. You are breaking it down between white women. If you want to break it down along race, he is winning 89 percent of black men and 88 percent of black women and 93 percent of Virginia of black men and 88 percent of black women.

POWERS: Yes, but she is also -- she is up 16 percent in Virginia among white women and up 10 percent in Maryland among white women. I'm just saying that when you look at it, I think the number to watch more with her is the white woman number. I think what has happened is that she has just lost black women. They are just not voting for her.

HANNITY: The Clintons, for example, all the talk about Bill Clinton was America's first black president. Something has happened with the African-American community. Is it Bill Clinton? Is it the fantasy, you know, fairy tale line that Bill Clinton? Is it some of the comments she made about LBJ and MLK?

POWERS: I think it's a combination of two things. I think, on the one hand, Barack Obama is an incredibly attractive candidate. He is beating her among white male voters. Obviously, there's something there. The African-American community was probably -- a lot of them were going to vote for him any way because he is an African-American candidate and he's a great candidate.

Then you add in the fact that all these things started happening right after New Hampshire, or right before New Hampshire, sorry, the fairy tale comment, the LBJ comment, and it infuriated the black community.

HANNITY: Let's go back to Super Tuesday and get into some detail here. It was Barack Obama wins 13 states to eight states. He wins the delegate count. You go to this past weekend, he wins four states by pretty significant margins. Looking at those numbers right there, I see, what, 63 percent to 36 percent. He's also -- the fund raising, the momentum, the crowds --

POWERS: Yes.

HANNITY: There is something going on here a lot deeper than just that he has outperformed expectations.

POWERS: He is a phenomenal candidate. It's indisputable. He is phenomenal candidate. He has run an incredible campaign. It was very strategic.

HANNITY: Is he the front runner now.

POWERS: I think you have to argue that he is the front runner.

HANNITY: Is Hillary going to try to fight to get Florida and Michigan delegates seated?

POWERS: Yes, they've made it pretty clear that they want those delegates seated.

HANNITY: Won't that be viewed negative by people. In the Democratic party, won't they feel the Clintons have broken the agreed upon rules?

POWERS: I've talked to people and people feel different ways about that.

HANNITY: I bet the Barack Obama people will feel differently. Thank you, Kirsten, appreciate it.

POWERS: Thank you.

HANNITY: Coming up, what will it take for Senator McCain to beat the Democratic nominee? Is he more likely to beat Hillary or Barack Obama? We're going to ask Andy Card. Plus, we're going to get reaction to Hillary's losses tonight. Plus, the polls are closing in Maryland in just a few minutes. We'll have a live report when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHRIS WALLACE, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: This is Chris Wallace back at Fox News Election Night Headquarters in New York. Don't worry, HANNITY AND COLMES are coming back in just a couple of moments. But we want to be here for 9:30 when the polls will finally close. Those weather delayed polls closing in the state of Maryland. And we believe we're going to have some calls to make for you at that time. So we want to be ready for those.

In the meantime, in the minute and a half before those polls close, let's bring in Karl Rove. And, Karl, one thing we should point out, since we were last on, McCain has moved out to a pretty sizable victory, or at least bigger than we had thought it was going to be, about 27,000 votes, seven point lead. What happened?

ROVE: Well, bigger margin than Governor Bush had over John McCain in 2000. It is good.

WALLACE: Funny you would remember that.

ROVE: Funny I would remember that. Well, what happened is northern Virginia came in and then the tide water came in. But the big story tonight in Virginia is the 7th district, which went overwhelmingly against McCain eight years ago, went overwhelmingly for him this year. If I were John McCain, I would be calling the Congressman Eric Canter, the very popular Republican Congressman from suburban Richmond who endorsed him and be thanking him for what he did for him tonight.

WALLACE: So, does he view this as a close call or does he think that we all thought in the media that it was closer than it was.

ROVE: Well, it ended up being a healthy victory and I suspect it will get a little bit healthier through the other 18 percent that's coming in. Of course, this leaves McCain --

WALLACE: Let's take a look at the board.

ROVE: Here.

WALLACE: No, no. Go over that direction.

ROVE: McCain needed 1191 to win. He entered the night with 729. He has gotten 60 more in Virginia. That gives him 789 and a commanding margin over Huckabee.

WALLACE: Of course, depending what happens in these other two contests, he could move well over 800, more than two thirds of the way to the nomination. It is now 9:30 on the East Coast and Fox News projects the John McCain will indeed be the winner of the Maryland primary. John McCain, a clear winner over Mike Huckabee.

And also on the Democratic side another projection. Barack Obama wins the Maryland primary over Hillary Clinton. The fact that we can call both of those races just as soon as the polls close gives you a pretty good indication that those are going to be very sizeable victories, very healthy victories for McCain on the Republican side, for Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side.

Karl Rove is quickly rejiggering his board.

Now, Karl, we can't give all of the votes, can we, in Maryland to John McCain because of the fact that it's winner-take-all, both by state and congressional district?

ROVE: Right. But it's likely to be, given -- given what the exits said, it's likely to be hard for Huckabee to get any delegates.

WALLACE: All right. So put your board up and show us what you think that now means.

ROVE: I think that now means that -- again, I'm finding it difficult to find the right place here, but that would put McCain over 800, 826. And he would need -- this number wrong here at the bottom. He now needs less than 270 votes in order to get the nomination.

WALLACE: So he's really on his way?

ROVE: He's on his way.

WALLACE: Let's talk about the Democratic side. I mean, we're talking about a smashing Obama victory in Virginia, a very healthy victory in Maryland. The fact that we're able to call it so quickly. Is Hillary Clinton in trouble?

ROVE: Absolutely. But, again, remember the proportionality of the Democratic contest rules means that tonight she came in roughly, according to the FOX News count, up 23 delegates.

If he continues this tonight, basically two to one victories, he will come out -- he'll pick up roughly 50 delegates, which means that he ends up being 25, 26, 27 delegates ahead of her, about as far ahead of her at the end of the night as she was ahead of him tonight. And it's very close. Very close.

WALLACE: But, beyond that, there's the whole question of momentum. If he sweeps tonight, swept the weekend, if he sweeps next week he could have won 10 straight races by the time we get to March 4.

ROVE: And it's hard, once you get up a head of steam, to stop something that's got that big a head of steam.

WALLACE: Now, do you see anything in the exit polls that indicates he's beginning to make inroads in her base?

ROVE: Well, he's doing even better among African-American voters than he did earlier. And yes, he's beginning to take away white -- white voters, particularly white men and low educated white men and it looks like white women in certain areas, yes.

I mean, look, she's -- her -- she is collapsing. I mean, the thing that -- for example, in Virginia, she won the 9th Congressional District, which is low income, less educated voters. She did not do well in the rest of the state.

WALLACE: All right. Karl Rove, thanks so much for your analysis.

That's it for us. We're going to take a break, but coming up, more "Hannity & Colmes," and also the big winner of the night on the Democratic side, Senator Barack Obama, about to make his statement. All of that coming up, straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: As you just heard, John McCain is the winner in Maryland for the Republicans. Barack Obama takes home another state for the Democrats. And these results coming a bit later than expected, after a Maryland judge extended poll closing time because of bad weather in Maryland.

With us now, former White House chief of staff, Andy Card.

Andy, welcome to "Hannity & Colmes" tonight.

ANDY CARD, FORMER WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: Great to be with you. Thank you.

COLMES: What do you make of this? First, let's talk about the Democrats. Do you think Hillary Clinton has got a problem? And does she have to win Ohio and Texas at this point?

CARD: Not only do I think she has a problem; I think she thinks she has a problem. Yes. She is looking forward to Texas and Ohio. But there's a lot that's going to happen between now and Texas and Ohio. And I'm not sure that she's feeling good tonight.

COLMES: What can she do in the meantime to stop the steamroll effect, or the momentum that everybody is talking about Barack Obama having?

CARD: Well, it sounds like she's talking about more shakeups within her own campaign organization. But she's down in Texas campaigning. That's what she's going to have to do. She's going to have to campaign hard in Texas and Ohio.

But tonight was a great night for John McCain. He really had a tremendous victory. And, you know, there's a lot of passion among conservatives in Virginia. John McCain did very well in Virginia, even with the passionate conservatives that were motivated to show up and kind of cast a protest vote.

COLMES: We had Karl Rove a few moments ago, telling us that the kind of conservatives who did not vote for John McCain in Virginia in 2000 actually did vote for him this time. Is that an indication -- and I'll ask you the same question I asked Karl -- that conservatives are beginning to accept John McCain?

CARD: I believe they are. You know, they're not enthused yet. I think they will become enthused when they realize that John McCain really is a conservative. And they'll be motivated because of what the other team is not, and that's conservative.

So I think John McCain is going to find that the conservative base is going to be motivated to show up in November when it really counts.

COLMES: Let's talk about the difference between Republicans and Democrats in terms of the split. It seems like the Democratic split is not as ideological, where the split among Republicans truly is. Huckabee supporters think one way; McCain supporters another way. But among the Democrats there isn't a lot of difference between the policy positions of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

CARD: Well, you know, this is star power right now with Barack Obama. And his campaign theme is change. Of course, people don't realize that all he's talking about change is moving from Ted Kennedy's left to the immediate right of Ted Kennedy. That's -- to Barack Obama, that's change. And I don't think that's the change that the American voters are looking for. But that's the change that the Democrats are excited about.

HANNITY: Andy, by the way, Sean Hannity, good to see you. Thank you for being with us tonight.

CARD: Thank you, Sean.

HANNITY: Look on the right side of -- at least to my right there and everybody's left, we see Barack Obama. He is in Madison, Wisconsin, tonight. And when he speaks, we'll bring that to you.

I want to go back -- you were talking about the conservative voters and a little bit of the split and divide there's been with Senator McCain, Andy. In Virginia, Mike Huckabee did win conservative voters, 55-32 tonight. Is that a sign of progress? He has been losing them fairly steadily. He did better, obviously, in Maryland.

CARD: Well, I think it's kind of a statement that conservatives were making. I don't think anybody believes that Mike Huckabee is going to be the party's nominee. And I don't think he's going to be the standard bearer for the conservative causes over the course of the next four years.

I think John McCain is going to win the Republican nomination. He's well on the way to doing that. He will carry the banner for the conservatives in the November election.

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