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February 08, 2008

Panel Discusses Superdelegates

FOX News Special Report With Brit Hume

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. JOE SESTAK, (D) PENNSYLVANIA: I believe my constituents are going to go to the majority to Senator Clinton.

But, second of all, I also believe that they have faith in me, that I will be able to vote for what's right for them.

BOB BECKEL, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Nobody has ever anticipated that it would be a situation like this, where they actually may make the difference between choosing the nominee and not.

And, of course, the problem with super delegates is it raises just that point, that it could very well be that one of these two, Clinton or Obama, are going to win the delegates at the polling booth, and could lose the nomination through super delegates.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: There you see Representative Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania, a Democrat. He is also a super delegate who is supporting Hillary Clinton.

And there you hear from Bob Beckel, Fox News contributor, Democratic strategist, talking about the problem the Democrats face now.

Let's take a look at the count of delegates in this race so far. There you see: 1,045 for Hillary Clinton; Barack Obama with 960. There are a number of races, obviously, still to come, including this weekend, but it could be close all the way to the convention where these super delegates could factor in and possibly decide this race.

Some analytical observations about all of this from Fred Barnes, Executive Editor of "The Weekly Standard," Mort Kondracke, Executive Editor of "Roll Call," and syndicated Charles Krauthammer, FOX News contributors all.

Mort, let's start with you. First of all, for people out there who are confused by this whole thing, explain the super delegate, what he or she does, and how it could affect this race.

MORT KONDRAKE, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, ROLL CALL: Right. In 1984 in one of their many, many changes of rules that the Democratic Party was going through, they created this separate class of delegates who are not elected in the primary process or selected on the basis of the primary process.

They are appointed, basically, because they're either members of Congress or party locals, state party chairman, or members of the Democratic National Committee. And there are 796 of them, and they are un- pledged. They can go wherever they want.

The design of this thing was to see to it that they were represented at the convention, but they thought it would be kind of ceremonial, that the contest would be over and that they would never have the deciding balance of power, unless the party was about to nominate somebody who was certain to lose the election--and I think they had Jesse Jackson in mind, or something like that--that this would be the bulwark against something catastrophic for the Party.

Now it's turning out it will be catastrophic in and of itself for the Party. This whole super delegate situation and the tie that we're headed into anticipates a very ugly meltdown for the Democratic Party.

BAIER: Charles, Senator Bill Nelson of Florida took to the Senate floor today, and he said this potentially could be a major train wreck, saying it smells of a backroom deal in the making.

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: I hate to say I'm going to enjoy watching it in slow motion. It is a train wreck, because what they hadn't anticipated was a race that would be this close.

And it's really hard to see how, with the crazy proportional system that Democrats have imposed on the regular delegates--

BAIER: Which essentially means that Democrats go by congressional district and could get equal amount of delegates even though one wins a state and the other one doesn't.

KRAUTHAMMER: Right.

On the Republican side, if McCain wins, as he did, Missouri by a nose, he gets all of those delegates. So, in the end, you accumulate a lot of delegates, and even if you only have a small margin, you are the decisive victory, as happened in McCain's case.

Democrats have it that you end up slicing the delegates in accordance with the percentage of the vote, which is extremely equal between Hillary and Obama, which means that even between now and July, it's hard to see how one pulls away and wins extra delegates, which means you end up in the summer with the contest decided by these unelected grandees.

And it combines a system that is hyper-democratic, but impractical-- proportional--with hyper-undemocratic, which is this system of super delegates which is going to leave at least the one side highly unhappy and even rebellious.

BAIER: Senator Barack Obama was asked today about the super delegates. Take a listen to what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My strong belief is that if we end up with the most states and the most pledged delegates from the most voters in the country that it would be problematic for the political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voters.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: Fred, they're concerned about this.

FRED BARNES, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, "THE WEEKLY STANDARD": They should be concerned about it.

And Barack Obama, though, leaves one thing out: what if at the end of the primary caucus process he is leading in delegates--it won't be by much- -and then he's also leading in the popular vote, which is also important here.

I mean, Democrats in 2000 made such a huge thing over the popular vote that George Bush lost and won the presidency anyway--and say he is narrowly ahead in the popular vote, narrowly ahead in delegates, and the super delegates want to go with him as a result because he was the leader.

Then Hillary Clinton can say what about Michigan and Florida? What about those two states? I went in there. We had one of the greatest turnouts in Florida history: 1.7 million Democrats, and they voted for me.

BAIER: But Barack Obama didn't put up ads, he didn't campaign there.

BARNES: Neither did she. She didn't put up ads.

Look, this thing can get a lot worse than it looks right now. It's not just the super delegates, it's those two states. And you know Hillary Clinton has already practically said if necessary, I'm not going to raise the Michigan and Florida question as well.

BAIER: And what point does the Democratic Party say this can't happen.

KONDRAKE: They can't do that, unless they are going to disobey the rules.

The other wrinkle: this is all lined up. The Democrats decided to have their convention late. It's labor day weekend, right at the start of the campaign. And they could be going through lawsuits over Michigan and Florida, and have their convention delayed.

It could be the ugliest mess you have ever seen.

BAIER: It's amazing.

BARNES: Mort was struggling for the word "fun."

KRAUTHAMMER: It will be a delightful summer.

BAIER: That's it for this topic.

When we return, a look at Republican race for the hearts and votes of conservatives, plus the all-star's weigh in on what role President Bush may play for the Republican Party's presidential nominee. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: Soon we'll have a nominee who will carry a conservative banner into this election and beyond.

The stakes in November are high. This is an important election. Prosperity and peace are in the balance.

So with confidence in our vision and faith in our values, let us go forward, fight for victory, and keep the White House in 2008!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BAIER: That was President Bush today at the Conservative Political Action Conference making the case for everyone to rally behind one nominee. White house officials were clear to point out that he did not endorse Senator John McCain in this speech.

But what is the role of President Bush in this upcoming general election battle? Back with our panel--Fred, how much of a role will President Bush play?

BARNES: I think he's going to play a very, very big role in one particular area, and that is going to be foreign affairs, national security, and Iraq, and the war on terror.

Whether it's Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, they come from the liberal wing of their party. They're against the Terrorist Interrogation Act, the wireless -- not interrogation. That's the wrong word--the Terrorist Surveillance Act. There we go.

They want to get out of Iraq precipitously, and on, and on, and on.

The president can, and I think will, credibly critique what they're saying. He knows a lot about that subject, and I think he will help McCain a lot in that regard.

BAIER: He could raise a lot of money for Republicans.

KONDRAKE: He raised a lot.

The one thing I wanted to correct about that that was in all the papers today, and that is I was at the C-PAC convention yesterday, and all the papers came out and said that McCain was booed.

Well, there were scattered boos at the best, and then he got five standing ovations. And by the end of it, when he got his final standing ovation at the end of his speech, I did not hear a single boo. So the booing has been overdone.

Now, that does not mean that the C-PAC people all love him, that's for sure, and that he doesn't have problems. And I think that what President Bush did today, it was an implicit endorsement of McCain. And, basically, he was saying to them, look, we've got to support this ticket.

And what is the ticket going to be? It's going to be McCain, obviously.

BAIER: McCain does have a vulnerable flank on the right, because today, for example, James Dobson, top social conservative, who is founder of Focus on the Family, said this about his endorsement of Mike Huckabee:

"His unwavering position on social issues, notably the institution of marriage, the importance of faith, the sanctity of human life, resonate deeply with me and with many others. Obviously the governor faces an uphill struggle given the delegates already committed to Senator McCain. Nevertheless, I believe he is our best remaining choice for president of the United States."

Charles, what about that?

KRAUTHAMMER: He's not a choice because he's not a serious candidate. Huckabee is done. He's running for the vice-presidency, ostentatiously.

BAIER: Isn't it fair to say that you said that he has been done a couple of times?

KRAUTHAMMER: He really is done.

BAIER: This is the time?

KRAUTHAMMER: Yes. It's toast. You could put a fork in it this time.

He doesn't have a chance. Mathematically it is impossible. He needs about a thousand delegates, and there are only about 1,200 left. Do the math on that. It can't be done.

So he's out there because he wants to be in the spotlight, which is OK. He wants to be out there, perhaps showing he can win or do well in Virginia or Texas as a way to show he might be an asset on the ticket.

But I think, ultimately, he is out there because he is auditioning to be a radio talk show host. He is going to be great. He would be excellent at that, and he doesn't have a day job right now.

BAIER: He's looking for Vice President.

KONDRAKE: He's wants to be vice president. He's is not going to be vice president; I don't think he will be vice president.

Karl Rove was up with us at FOX News in New York and said that the right wing would go as ballistic over him, a ticket of McCain plus Huckabee, they would go utterly ballistic.

Now, Fred suggested today a very god idea, and that is that Romney should be McCain's vice president, and it makes a lot of sense, because he could handle the economic portfolio--he's strong on that regard. He could do the management thing--he's former governor.

McCain doesn't like him: that would be the problem. But it would set up the succession. Romney is logically, or could be logically the frontrunner for the 2012 election if McCain doesn't win the election, and if he works himself, he could be the frontrunner.

Furthermore, one of Romney's people today told me that, as to this question, Romney is in a "never say never mode."

BAIER: This is quite a conversion, Mort.

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