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McCain's Thin Blue Victory

About 11:30 p.m. Eastern time Tuesday, John McCain strode before the cameras to announce the evening's results: "Tonight, I think we must get used to the idea that we are the Republican Party front-runner for the nomination of president of the United States."

California had not yet been called, and neither had Missouri, but why wait until all of America goes to bed before proclaiming the good news? A phantom "Mission Accomplished" banner seemed to sway behind him as Sen. McCain conferred on himself a title best conferred by others.

If "news" means when the unexpected happens, then the big news coming out of Super Tuesday was Mike Huckabee's emergence as a major player.

The man from nowhere with the empty pockets; the one guy left in the race with the wife who looks like most of us wives look (or will look) after 30 years of marriage -- no Jackie-O vibe, but pure Bess Truman -- racked up big wins that nobody predicted in Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama and Tennessee, along with his home state of Arkansas.

The wise pundits all immediately concluded Huckabee has no path to the nomination, and they are probably right. But the wise pundits also said Huckabee had no path to get here on Super Tuesday, a major player on a shoestring budget. Huckabee is just a regional candidate, perhaps, but in the region that is the heart of the modern Republican Party.

As the evening progressed, and as more vote totals poured in after midnight, McCain's self-confidence began to be justified by the data: A narrow win in Missouri and a big win in California kept his victory roll from looking, well, thin and blue -- heavily centered in the old Rockefeller establishment Eastern Seaboard.

McCain came on especially strong last night in states that Republicans traditionally lose on election night: New York, New Jersey, California. But Huckabee's wins in the South and Romney's in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain states point not to McCain's overwhelming strength, but to his relative weakness for being the best-known Republican in the race.

Twenty-one states voted last night, McCain lost in 12 of them.

He pulled in at least twice as many delegates as any other candidates and established himself as the front-runner of a party whose base does not really support him, yet. About 60 percent of Republicans who voted last night call themselves conservatives, and McCain continued to fail to gain even a plurality of their votes, sometimes losing them to Huckabee, sometimes to Romney.

McCain, in one of those unexpected twists of fate, has ended up executing the Giuliani strategy for GOP victory: Pick up enough conservatives in a split field to emerge as the leader. In this task (unlike Rudy), Sen. McCain is helped by his consistent pro-life voting record over many years.

So Sen. McCain may have begun his Super Tuesday victory speech by proclaiming himself front-runner, but he spent the rest of it demonstrating he understands the peculiar predicament he now faces with the GOP base.

"I promise you if I am so fortunate as to win your nomination, I will work hard to ensure that the conservative philosophy and principles of our great party ... will again win the votes of the majority of the American people," McCain said. He followed up with a laundry list of values meant to touch the hearts of Reaganites everywhere: lighten the heavy hand of government; defend our nation's security; "tax us no more than necessary, spend no more than necessary."

No doubt we will hear more from Sen. McCain on these and other themes at a major speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, D.C., this week.

McCain knows the goal line got a little bit closer on Super Tuesday, no question. But the end is not yet in sight.

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