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McCain May Align Too Often with Bush

A recurring pattern in American presidential politics is voters' tendency to pick someone with significant differences from even a popular predecessor.

John Kennedy differed a good bit from Dwight Eisenhower, and George W. Bush is very different from Bill Clinton. Even when a party retains the White House, this pattern has held; Mr. Bush's father had significant differences from Ronald Reagan.

Looking ahead to this fall's election, either potential Democratic nominee, Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. Hillary Clinton, would be dramatically different from Mr. Bush, both in style and in substance of positions.

But the Republicans are likely to represent substantial continuity, even though the front-runner, Sen. John McCain, is stylistically quite different from Mr. Bush.

In fact, though Super Tuesday primaries showed Mr. McCain's continuing difficulty in consolidating conservative backing because of his past maverick tendencies, his current positions on key issues show little real difference from the president's.

And that may pose a major dilemma for the veteran Arizona senator: The more he hews to the right to consolidate GOP backing, the more he may alienate the moderates and independents whose votes he needs but who have shown a strong desire to change Mr. Bush's policies.

The degree to which Mr. McCain would continue key Bush policies has received less attention in recent weeks than the appealing aspects of his style and personality.

He is the "straight talker" who has wooed the media, reached out at times to Democrats in a way Mr. Bush has not and opposed some of the worst Bush excesses, such as allowing torture of captives and resisting international action on global warming.

These have given him cachet with independents that Mr. Bush has long since lost and explain why, of all the GOP contenders, Mr. McCain runs virtually even in polls against Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton.

Though some GOP critics worry about his sometimes-volatile temperament, Mr. McCain also will benefit from being able to portray himself as a strong, experienced national security leader, especially against the younger, less experienced Mr. Obama.

But the Arizona senator's positions on these major issues are basically identical with these current Bush policies at a time when polls show the public opposes them:

Iraq. Despite the military success of the surge, Mr. McCain opposes reducing U.S. troop strength below pre-surge levels at a time when a majority of Americans favor withdrawing most American forces.

He also supports the administration's plan for permanent U.S. bases, a position likely to be a general election flash point.

Economic policy. Though Mr. McCain voted against the Bush tax cuts as too big, especially for upper-income taxpayers, he now favors extending all of them. That includes the tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans that many Democrats want to repeal to finance programs like expanded health care coverage.

Indeed, the more significant a role economic policy plays in the campaign, the tougher it may be for Mr. McCain, who has acknowledged it's not his strong point.

Social issues and judicial appointments. Mr. McCain gained bipartisan praise for reaching out to Democrats to help prevent the Senate's former GOP leadership from changing procedures to make it easier to confirm conservative judges.

But on the underlying issue, he strongly backed the conservative Bush nominees to the Supreme Court and has been a consistent opponent of abortion rights.

At a time when the fate of the 1973 decision legalizing abortion rights could depend on the next high court nominee, that stance might not appeal to independent voters as much as his style.

One thing is clear in this campaign: Most Americans want to change things in Washington and end the partisanship and political gridlock of recent years. It's a major factor in the appeal of both Barack Obama and John McCain.

But Mr. McCain, like other recent presidents, may find that easier to advocate than to achieve.

That's especially true because it's almost certain the next president will have to work with Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress that favor policies at odds with those advocated by Mr. Bush - and Mr. McCain.

In the end, his chances in November may depend on whether style or substance governs the decisions for independents and other swing voters.

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